The British Pound hits 6-months low, falling against the US Dollar for some six weeks now amid BoE rate cut rumours. Could the pound fall further in Q2? What are the latest Pound price predictions for 2024 and beyond?
After starting the year above 1.2700, GBP/USD hits 1.2300 for the first time since November, down over 3% year-to-date. The EUR/GBP hit a fresh 3-month high on April 22 above 0.8640 as the euro gains on the pound for the sixth straight trading day. The Pound Sterling (GBP) accelerated its downtrend against the US Dollar (USD) amid Middle East tensions, hawkish Fed outlook and BoE turning dovish.
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee took a dovish turn at their latest policy meetings, sparking discussion that the UK central bank may bring forward its first interest rate cut from August to June. Developments over the last weeks, however, are likely to make some ECB hawks rethink the June rate-cut option and more patience for FED.
Given the latest changes in the interest rate differential expectations, traders may have to re-think their Q2 forecast for British Pound and its main counterparts.
Key British Pound (GBP) Forecast & Price Prediction Summary
- British Pound (GBP) forecast today: Pound Sterling has been widely sold as BOE turning dovish; the Pound to Dollar exchange rate has fallen 2.25% already in April, and analysts say more weakness is likely. GBP/USD remains in “sell rallies” mode, so bullish readers will want to be nimble against a broader backdrop that favors more downside from here.
- British Pound (GBP) price prediction 2024: With markets expecting the Bank of England to start cutting rates sooner (August) than in the US and EU, a 50bp swing in the GBP:USD one-year swap differential in favour of looser BoE policy, the relationship since the start of 2023 suggests GBP/USD should be trading closer to 1.21.
- British Pound (GBP) forecast for the next 5 years: While the UK may avoid an official recession, the UK economy, and the Bank of England, may well face the tricky problem of stagflation in the quarters and even years ahead. GBPUSD is forecasted to resume its downtrend after the peak in late 2024 and trade as low as 1.10 in the next 5 years.
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British Pound (GBP) Forecast 2024- Fundamental
Mounting fears over a fully blown-out war in the Middle East combined with a hawkish shift in the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest-rate outlook doubled up the demand for the US Dollar at the expense of the Pound Sterling. This underlying cautious environment weighed on the risk currencies such as the British Pound was amplified by the Bank of England turning more dovish lately.
BoE's big question: follow the Fed or the ECB?
The Bank of England (BoE) must decide which path to take considering the global trend of major central banks considering interest rate cuts: the Federal Reserve or the European Central Bank. Economists predicted that the Federal Reserve would be the first to enact rate decreases after it increased interest rates to 5.5%, higher than those of its European peers. Nonetheless, the Fed has decided to postpone rate decreases until at least the second half of 2024 due to robust US statistics. In contrast, the European Central Bank (ECB) has indicated that it will make its own decisions and is expected to start reducing interest rates in June.
When central banks modify interest rates independently of one another, they run the danger of changing the relative value of their respective currencies. The ECB's revised rate path hurt EUR/USD, causing it to drop from above 1.0800 to almost 1.0600.
Despite an increasing gap between projections from the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve, investors had been expected the Bank of England to follow the Fed's lead on rate reduction this year. Investors have understandably found it difficult to believe that the BoE can reduce faster than the Fed, given that UK services inflation (6%) is substantially higher than that of the US (5.3%) and the eurozone (4.0%).
However, that is shifting. Investors are now priced for two rate cuts in 2024, with a first 25bp cut fully priced in for August and the odds of a June cut being a 50/50 call.
But the consensus amongst economists surveyed by Bloomberg at the beginning of April favours a June cut. Therefore, further repricing in a GBP-negative direction must continue as June is yet to be 'fully priced'.
It looks as though May's Bank of England policy meeting will deliver the required final repricing as more members of the MPC will vote for a cut. The guidance from the Bank will also make it clear a cut is coming.
UK inflation reaches lowest level since 2021
The UK's inflation rate is still rising and is going to reach the central bank's goal in the upcoming months. The BoE projects that annual headline inflation will "fall to slightly below 2% in 2024 Q2" before increasing in Q3 and Q4. Following a multi-decade high of 11.1% in October 2022, UK inflation has declined rapidly and is currently down at levels of 3.4% last seen in September 2021. Throughout this time, the BoE has stood firm, indicating that the pressure on UK prices needs to be reduced in a sustainable manner.
Governor Andrew Bailey recently stated that the BoE is "comfortable" with market rate cut forecasts and believes the economy is "moving in the right direction." To align with Fed and ECB rate cut projections, the market's anticipation of the first UK rate drop has now been moved up to the June 20th BoE meeting. Additionally, three quarter-point rate cuts this year are completely priced into the markets.
UK Growth Remains Tepid, Jobs Market Remains Tight
Rate reductions will be well received by many industries because the UK economy is still struggling. According to the most recent ONS data, in Q4 2023, the UK economy went into a technical recession. After contracting by 0.1% in Q3, the British economy shrank by 0.3% in the third quarter of 2017. Overall, the GDP expanded by a pitiful 0.1% in 2023. Although the recent Spring Budget is expected to increase GDP by about 0.1 percentage points, additional drivers of domestic development are still needed.
Wage growth is still robust in the UK, albeit a little more slowly. January's average earnings (ex-bonus) increased by 6.1%, a significant increase over the most recent 3.4% UK inflation rate. giving UK consumers greater disposable income. With 3.9% unemployment, the labour market is still strong, and economic activity for those between the ages of 16 and 64 is increasing and is still higher than it was before the epidemic.
It seems appropriate for the Bank of England to propose a series of rate reduction this year, beginning at its meeting on June 20 according to the latest British Pound forecasts, given the robust economic environment that includes quickly declining inflation, a stagnating to slightly weakening labour market, and an economy in need of stimulation.
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) Forecast - The UK can diverge from the FED
It appears that the Bank of England would likely lower interest rates before the Federal Reserve, where the first action is anticipated in September. ING also believes that this year's BoE reduction will be larger overall.
That would represent a slight divergence from the current cycle of rate hikes, in which the BoE and several other European central banks seemed driven higher by their increased sensitivity to currency weakening.
ING believes that the connection between Fed and BoE policies is frequently exaggerated. There are many instances where the BoE has deviated significantly from the Fed; the US rate-hiking cycle from 2016 to 2018 is the most recent.
In fact, it's likely that worries about the effects of a declining currency have diminished. In addition to the fact that inflation is significantly lower and that the destination is more likely to occur, British Pound is forecasted and has already proven to be one of the G10 currencies that is most resilient to the dollar's recent surge in strength. That provides a small amount of protection against any new weakness and inflation feedthrough, in a way.
According to the latest British Pound forecasts, ING think the BoE would have many qualms about cutting rates before the Federal Reserve, nor moving a little more quickly in subsequent meetings.
Euro to Pound (EUR/GBP) Forecast: a falling euro is not the ECB’s biggest concern
One thing is clear, there is nothing like a pain threshold for the ECB, neither in times of euro strength nor in times of euro weakness. The ECB doesn’t have an exchange rate target but takes exchange rate movements into account as part of the transmission channels of monetary policy.
The ECB doesn't appear to be overly concerned about the euro's decline at this time. What will cause issues for the ECB hawks, at least, is the increase in oil prices and the possibility of further escalation of the Middle East conflicts. With oil prices already over 10% higher than those included in the ECB's March projections, at USD90/bbl, inflation estimates could rise by 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points in 2024 and 2025.
It's too early, yet, as the cut-off date for the important June projections is only four weeks away. However, the latest developments suddenly turn a relatively benign inflation outlook into a much more alarming one in which inflation would reach the ECB’s target only at the very end of the forecast horizon.
According to the latest Euro to Dollar forecasts, a rate cut at the June meeting is still possible, but less likely to happen. However, the combination of an even further weakening euro exchange rate, geopolitical tensions and surging energy prices could bring back inflation headaches and limit the ECB’s room for manoeuvre.
Pound to Yen (GBP/JPY) Forecast: markets disappointed with Bank of Japan
The Bank of Japan left its key interest rates unchanged at the beginning of Q2, letting markets clearly disappointed with the colourless policy guidance. However, analyst believe the latest outlook report and Governor Ueda’s comments support the view that the BoJ will deliver a 15bp hike in July, followed by a 25bp hike in October,
Markets were more eagerly awaiting the BoJ's quarterly outlook report than the BoJ's policy rate decision itself, as the report guides the direction of BoJ policy and the pace of policy normalisation. The BoJ has revised up its core inflation outlook for FY2024 and FY2025 to 2.8% (vs market consensus of 2.6%) and 1.9% (market consensus 1.9%), respectively, from 2.4% and 1.8%. The BoJ also acknowledged larger upside risks for FY2024 inflation.
The GDP forecast for FY2024 has been revised down to 0.8% from 1.2%, while 1.0% growth is forecast for both FY2025 and FY2026. According to ING, the weaker-than-expected 1Q24 GDP related to auto production and rising geopolitical risks should be the main reason for the downward revision. However, steady growth of 1.0% thereafter should also demonstrate the BoJ's confidence in steady growth recovery.
With US rates taking another leg higher yesterday, GBP/JPY went into April’s BoJ meeting on the bid side. Investors were wondering whether the Bank would have much to say about the yen or would indirectly support the currency by lending weight to market speculation that the size of its JGB buying programme could be cut.
Summarizing this British Pound to Yen Forecast, there has been nothing from the BoJ to provide much immediate support for the yen – hence, GBP/JPY is pushing up to new highs towards 200.
British Pound (GBP) Forecast - Technical Outlook 2024
Following the Bank of England's change in stance, the British Pound has begun the process of being revalued against several different currencies. Financial markets valued Sterling-pairs in accordance with the first UK rate, which was expected in mid-Q3, prior to the March meeting. Sterling has declined because of the move to the June MPC meeting, and this is probably going to continue soon. In the future, the US dollar and the euro will probably see some stabilisation of Sterling's value, while the Bank of Japan will control movements against the Japanese yen.
Here are the latest technical British Pound forecast and price predictions against the main counterparts.
Pound to Dollar (GBPUSD) Technical Forecast May 2024
The GBP/USD exchange rate has resumed its lengthy consolidation phase, which started at the beginning of November 2023. After the BoE re-pricing, the rise higher to 1.2900 was swiftly reversed, sending cable back towards the 1.2500 support area. The 200-day simple moving average, which is currently at 1.2591, and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, which is at 1.2628, are two significant technical indicators to support this level. However, the price temporary tested the 50% Fibonacci retracement around 1.2300 leaving the previous support level as horizontal resistance within a potential downward channel.
The long technical British Pound to Dollar forecast points that GBP/USD pair seeks equilibrium. The 50% Fibonacci Retracement at 1.2470 is located ahead of significant figure support around 1.2500, should the GBP/USD pair continue to decline within the channel. There will be pressure on sub-1.24 levels if we breach below this point. Resistance for any further increase is located at 1.2742 up to 1.2800. The recent trading area, which is highlighted on the chart, may see a short-term downside break but overall is likely to hold for the next two to three months.
Short-term technical analysis indicates that further weakness in the GBP/USD exchange rate is likely, as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator is still well below the oversold area but well below the negative zone. The 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) formed a Bear Cross recently, crossing the 200-day SMA to the downward, supporting the bearish Pound to Dollar forecast.
Consequently, a strong downtrend towards the bottom of November 14 at 1.2266 will be initiated by a persistent fall below the point where the lows of November 16 and 17 cross, around 1.2375. A substantial recovery will only begin if there is a sustained rise above the 1.25-1.26 area, if the RSI conditions turn oversold.
Euro to Pound (EURGBP) Technical Forecast May 2024
EUR/GBP is another pair that has been trading in a defined range over most of the first quarter. Support around 0.8500 has held firm and promoted a sharp rebound during its two tests, while the 0.8550 area has seen a variety of highs and lows printed on either side. As we write this Euro to Pound forecast, multi-month resistance is being broken due to a current bout of Sterling weakness, and the 200-day SMA at 0.8606 and a prior set of highs around 0.8620 is set to come under pressure soon.
In the short term a move above 0.8620 may well happen but with the MACD indicator as well as the CCI indicator showing the market in extremely overbought territory, a period of consolidation is likely. While the path of least resistance remains pointed higher, a move substantially higher - above 0.8700 - will struggle for traction. Euro to Pound forecast is to trade higher in Q2, but not noticeably.
Considering the 2024 Pound to Euro forecast and price predictions from big banks and the technical outlook, we can assume the pair will eventually break the 0.87 resistance level in the first quarter of 2024 and for the rest of the year will trade towards the 0.90 level.
Pound to Yen (GBPJPY) Technical Forecast May 2024
The technical forecast for Pound to Yen (GBP/JPY) is different from the Pound to Dollar forecast (GBP/USD) and Euro to Pound forecast (EUR/GBP) and potential moves may be more unpredictable in the weeks ahead. GBP/JPY has been in a strong uptrend since the start of 2023 with dual drivers of ongoing Yen weakness and bouts of Sterling strength. This trend may soon run out of steam as the BoE eyes lower rates in the coming months while the Bank of Japan has just raised interest rates, albeit by just 10 basis points.
From a technical angle, the Pound to Yen forecast (GBP/JPY) points toward an ascending trend in place, if the pair keeps making a series of higher lows and higher highs, while GBP/JPY also trades above all three simple moving averages. However, the spike towards the 200 mark may indicate a potential exhaustion that should be confirmed by a lower low followed by a lower high.
For GBP/JPY to turn negative, a break below the 190 key support level is needed. This move would also take out the 20- and 50-day SMAs. A break lower would then leave the mid-186 area and 184 as the next targets.
British Pound (GBP) Price Predictions 2024 and Beyond
Here we look at the latest Pound forecasts for 2024 and beyond, including comments from highly rated institutional FX strategists.
British Pound to Dollar Forecast 2024 by ING
According to ING, market implied expectations show investors are now priced for two rate cuts in 2024, with a first 25bp cut fully priced in for August and the odds of a June cut being a 50/50 call.
As for the Pound to Dollar forecast, the bank says to expect the greater differentiation between the Bank and Fed cycles "to particularly weigh on GBP/USD".
"At an extreme, say 50bp, swing in the GBP:USD one-year swap differential in favour of looser BoE policy, the relationship since the start of 2023 suggests GBP/USD should be trading closer to 1.21. In short, it looks like some further sterling under-performance is certainly the near-term risk," explains the bank's analysts in their latest Pound to Dollar forecast for Q2 2024.
Bearish Pound-to-Dollar Forecast 2024 from Wells Fargo
Currency analysts at Wells Fargo warn investors of the risk for the Pound Sterling (GBP) to tumble against the US Dollar (USD) by early 2024.
The bank remains downbeat on the European economy and expects a firm dollar tone against European pairs; “Sentiment surveys for both economies have softened sharply in recent months, and European underperformance relative to the US should weigh on both currencies.”
Wells Fargo forecasted Pound to Dollar to trade as low as 1,16 during 2024, arguing that the European Central Bank and Bank of England have also signaled that policy rates have likely reached their peak, lessening interest rate support.
Bullish Pound-to Dollar-Forecast 2024 from Goldman Sachs
Although Goldman Sachs has brought forward its expectations of the first Bank of England (BoE) rate cut, the bank has also raised its Pound Sterling forecasts. Goldman now forecasts the Pound to Dollar exchange rate will trade at 1.25 in 3 months from 1.18 previously with the 6 and 12-month forecasts both at 1.30 compared with 1.20 and 1.25 respectively previously.
The change in stance reflects a more bullish view on the Pound rather than a more bearish stance on the dollar as Goldman still expects that the US currency will maintain a strong tone in 2024, especially against the Euro. Goldman expects that the ECB and Federal Reserve will be more aggressive in cutting interest rates next year which will provide direct and indirect Pound support.
The updated guidance from the BoE signalled that they are moving their focus towards keeping rates at higher levels for longer to bring down inflation rather than continuing to hike rates further into restrictive territory, according to MUFG.
The bank, however, expects divergence in views to develop; “We find it harder to buy into this policy view for the BoE than for the Fed at present given much weaker activity data in the UK relative to in the US. The BoE policy rate is currently expected to remain above 5.00% for most of 2024. We expect the UK rate market to price more BoE cuts back into the coming quarters.”
Investment Banks continued to lower their BoE forecasts with at least 10 major banks including Barclays, HSBC, and Bank of America lowering their peak forecast to 5.25% from 5.50%. Deutsche Bank and JP Morgan have cut their peak forecast to 5.25% from 5.75% previously.
According to Commerzbank, the pound remains in an impasse. The concern that now emerges, according to the bank, is how the BoE will respond if pricing pressure does not decrease as quickly in the upcoming months as currently anticipated. The BoE's decision would undoubtedly be met with skepticism by the market, which will probably push the pound. It anticipates that momentum for rate decreases will increase if inflation continues to improve. The German bank forecast that one way or another, prospects for the Sterling remain muted in this context.
RBC Capital Markets is negative on the economic outlook; Just because GBP has not benefitted from rising rate expectations, it does not follow that it will be similarly immune to markets starting to discount cuts.
TD Securities expects the BoE will hold rates until May 2024.
Pound To Dollar Forecast 2024: "1.2000 Or Below Can't Be Ruled Out"
TD Securities remains bearish on the pound forecast for the next 6 months; “GBP/USD opens up a move to 1.21 here, but we also think GBP slides on the crosses.”
In the latest Pound to Dollar forecast for 2024, MUFG sees little in the way of technical support now until closer to the 1.2000 level which leaves the Pound vulnerable to further weakness.
Danske Bank maintains a 6-month pound-to-dollar forecast of 1.20 with dollar strength and a fragile cable due to domestic growth concerns and a potential recalibration of BoE market pricing.
Rabobank expects that the US economy will weaken and prevent further rate hikes, but added; Nevertheless, the risk to our baseline is to the upside. As long as the economy stays strong, and labor markets tight, additional hikes are likely.”
Rabobank expects that USD strength will prevail into 2024, and forecast the pound for the next 3 months to drift towards 1.23.
Societe Generale is pessimistic surrounding the European economic outlook and still expects that the US will out-perform: “The only positive I can think of for the Euro or Sterling, in a world where growth expectations are the biggest driver of exchange rates, is that expectations about UK and Eurozone growth are already dire relative to the US.”
The bank forecast Pound to Dollar could get to 1.20 if we don’t get any positive surprises from the real economic data in Europe soon.
Euro To Pound Sterling Forecast: 0.85 In Three to Six Months
The analysts at Rabobank suggest a slight bias lower for the Euro (EUR) against the Pound Sterling (GBP) in the near-term outlook.
They forecast Euro to Pound to edge lower to 0.85 on a 3-to-6-month view, but expect the currency pair to remain within its familiar range.
Pound (GBP) price predictions from AI-based websites
According to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts' expectations. the British Pound is forecast to trade at 1.24 by the end of Q2 2024. Looking forward, the website estimates GBP/USD to trade at 1.21 in 12 months’ time.
Another AI-based website, Long Forecast, estimates GBP/USD to close in 2024 at around 1.2670. The website forecasts the British Pound to reach a 1.2860 high against the US Dollar in Q4 2024. The British Pound forecast for the next 5 years is neutral, with GBP/USD trading around slightly below 1.23 after trading above 1.24 at the beginning of 2025. The Pound to Dollar (GBPUSD) forecast for 2024 from algorithm-based forecaster.
Wallet Investor was slightly bearish, with the pair set to trade close at a high above 1.26 during the year. The Pound to Dollar forecast for 2024 shows a downtrend toward 1.21. Regarding the British Pound's long-term forecast, the website is predicting that the pair could trade below 1.20 in 2025 and 1.17-1.18 in 2026. Analysts have not issued a GBP/EUR forecast for 2030, yet the pound 5-year price prediction from Wallet Investor went as far as 2028, predicting the pair will trade around 1.08-.109.
The monthly Pound / Dollar (GBP/USD) Forecast 2024 from Panda Forecast is bullish with the pair trading at 1.2780 at the beginning of Q3, up to 1.34 in the last quarter. Their 5-year Pound forecast is very bullish with GBP/USD price predictions above 1.45.
Euro to Pound price predictions (EUR/GBP)
Trading Economics forecast Euro British Pound Sterling to be priced at 85471 by the end of this quarter and at 0.85604 in one year, according to their global macro model's projections and analysts' expectations.
Euro to Pound forecast for 2024 is 0.848, with the pair expected to reach a low of 0.877, according to the Long Forecast website.
Gov Capital forecasts Eur/Gbp to trade at 0.845 by the end of Q1 2024, while the Euro to Pound forecast for the next 6 months is a sideways movement. The Euro to Pound forecast for 2024 year end is 0.85.
Pound to Yen (GBP/JPY)
Trading Economics forecasts the British Pound Sterling Japanese Yen to be priced at 197.547 by the end of this quarter and 198.501 in one year, according to its global macro models' projections and analysts' expectations.
What drives the GBP/USD Currency Pair
The EUR/USD trend depends on what stage of the cycle the global economy is at. During a recession, the demand for safe-haven assets, including the US dollar, increases. As a result, the pound/dollar goes down.
During a recovery from a recession, investors are not that focused on preserving money. Retail investors search for ways to multiply the deposit. At this stage, the fundamentals driving the GBP/USD currency pair are the GDP growth rates and the monetary policy of central banks.
A strong economy is a strong currency. The rapid rebound of GDP after the recession is a reason to buy securities of the country. In particular, the belief that the US economy will fully recover from the 2020 recession in the second quarter of 2021 and exceed its potential level in 2022 contributed to the USA 500 rally by 18% from January to early August. As a result of the capital inflow into the US stock market, the US dollar was strengthened.
The GDP rate is a tier-1 indicator but, unfortunately, lagging. The GDP report is published a month or month and a half after the end of the quarter. Therefore, it is very difficult to determine whose economy is growing faster at a particular time, which doesn’t provide a clear picture of the current economic situation to investors. That is why forex traders have to monitor some leading indicators, such as the US and UK PMIs.
The more the economy heats, the more likely the central bank to phase out the quantitative easing program and hike the interest rates. As a result, the assets denominated in the local currency grow more attractively. That is why the US dollar is currently strengthening against a basket of major currencies.
To understand the Fed’s intentions, one should track such economic indicators as inflation and unemployment rates. When these indicators reach the thresholds set by the Fed, the central bank starts scaling back monetary stimulus. In this case, the greenback will grow in value.
Speeches of central bank representatives are important in forecasting the GBP/USD exchange rate. The officials’ comments give a clue on how the central banks’ policies could change, and investors could develop trading strategies based on this.
Pound Forecasting and Trading Tips
Monitor the global financial markets. If the S&P 500 and oil are rallying up simultaneously, it is a reason to buy the Pound versus US Dollar. If the stock index is growing and the black stuff is falling in value, or both financial assets are depreciating, it may be relevant for traders to look for sell opportunities in the GBPUSD. A necessary condition to look for buy opportunities in the long term is the sync trends in the global economy. If the US GDP features robust growth, but the UK area faces problems, traders may look for sell opportunities. Use technical indicators in trading the GBP/USD to determine the current market state and key support/resistance levels. If the Moving Averages often cross the GBPUSD chart, the market is trading flat. If the price chart is above the EMA, the trend is bullish; if the price is below the indicator, the underlying trend is bearish. Use Japanese chart patterns and western chart patterns like head and shoulders, double top and bottom, or triangles to identify entry and exit points. Study the history of the financial asset’s quotes. An example that took place in the past may emerge in the future as a potential GBP/USD price movement. Do not try to use all popular trading strategies; you’d better find the one that suits you best. Always observe the rules of your online trading system.
Summary of Pound Price Predictions
GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, and GBP/JPY, are expected to be influenced by various factors including the Bank of England's interest rates, a dominant US Dollar, maintaining multi-month ranges, and a bullish Bank of Japan. These factors will play a crucial role in shaping the Q4 performance of the British Pound.
It’s important to remember that any long-term forecasts, even the GBP/USD forecast, or any other currency pair, are too unreliable to believe in. Too many factors may affect the rate of the currency pair, and it’s best to be up-to-date with what’s happening in the global arena in order to make realistic and reliable predictions.
If you do decide that trading this currency pair is something for you, and you believe in the future of the British Pound vs. US Dollar pair, first, you need to decide on a suitable trading strategy for you and work it out first on a demo account, and then on a real account.
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Sources:
- British Pound - Quote - Chart - Historical Data - News (tradingeconomics.com)
- Bank of England pushes back on calls for early 2024 rate cuts | Snap | ING Think
- Will politics and policy spoil the Pound Sterling party? (fxstreet.com)
- Bank Of England To Stay On Hold Well Into 2024 (fitchsolutions.com)
- https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-report/2024/february-2024