Article Hero

The US labor market is recovering

1634896071.jpg
ميغيل رودريغيز
ميغيل رودريغيز
05 نوفمبر 2022
The number of weekly jobless claims published yesterday – 290K - showed a favorable evolution of the labor market, with the lowest number since the pandemic's beginning

Everything indicates that the economy is moving towards full employment, which is the objective that the Federal Reserve set when making expansionary monetary policy decisions.

The fixed income market behaved accordingly with further falls in the prices of treasury bonds that brought the US 10-year bond yield to 1.68%, already very close to the maximum levels reached in March of this year - 1.77%. The latest figures show long-term interest rates are not having any negative impact on the stock markets at the moment. They are being driven upwards by the better-than-expected results that are being published for Q3. 

However, IBM was an exception. It disappointed with a drop in revenue to 17.62B from the forecast 17.78B. The North American company reported that it was being affected by supply problems and yesterday it fell by about 9%.

This movement dragged down the DowJones30 index with slight falls that separated it from the better performance of the Nasdaq index and the S&P500. 

GráficoDescripción generada automáticamente

 

Even so, DowJones30 is still at levels very close to its all-time high reached the previous day at 35,538.

Everything is aligned so that the Fed can announce the beginning of the tapering program as soon as the meeting of November 3: good prospects in the labor market and stocks at the highest levels.

There was an almost general decline in prices in the commodities market with falls in Natural Gas, copper lost nearly 4%, and oil dropped almost $2 on the day.

This decline in commodity prices dragged the Australian, New Zealand, and Canadian dollars down due to correlation. 

In reality, there was no fundamental reason to explain this abrupt correction in raw materials, which can be interpreted as purely technical.

Only in the case of crude oil can it be said that President Putin's comments had influenced it. From his point of view, the OPEC+ member countries were not strictly complying with the latest agreements and that they could be producing more than what was agreed. Something that, in any case, would not be the first time that happens.

Technically, on the daily chart, it has formed a bearish engulfing candle that, together with an overbought RSI and slight bearish divergence, suggests that the correction may continue in the coming days. 

Interfaz de usuario gráfica, GráficoDescripción generada automáticamente

 

Sources: Bloomberg.com, reuters.com

 ويقر محلل Miguel A. Rodriguez الأبحاث المسئول بشكل رئيسي عن محتوى هذا التقرير البحثي, جزئيا أو كليا, أن وجهات النظر حول الشركات وأوراقها المالية الواردة في هذا التقرير تعكس بدقة وجهات نظره الشخصية فحسب, وبالتالي فإن أي شخص يتصرف بناء عليها يفعل ذلك على مسئوليته الخاصة بشكل كامل.لا يمثل البحث المقدم هنا آراء KW Investments Ltd كما لا يعتبر دعوة للاستثمار مع KW Investments Ltd. يُقِر محلل الأبحاث أيضاً أن جزء من التعويض الذي يحصل عليه، أو سيحصل عليه، بشكل مباشر أو غير مباشر، يرتبط بالتوصيات أو الآراء الواردة في هذا التقرير.لا يعمل محلل الأبحاث لدى KW Investments Ltd. ننصحك بطلب الحصول على استشارة من مستشار مالي مستقل بخصوص مدى ملائمة الاستثمار، بموجب ترتيبات منفصلة، والتأكد من ملائمته وتوافقه مع أهدافك الاستثمارية المحددة، وضعك المالي أو احتياجات المالية الخاصة قبل الالتزام بالاستثمار.تحكم قوانين جمهورية سيشل أي مطالبات تنشأ أو تتعلق بمحتوى المعلومات/الأبحاث المقدمة.

مشاركة هذا المقال

كيف وجدت هذا المقال؟

مريع
نعم
عظيم
Awesome

اعرف المزيد

ميغيل رودريغيز
ميغيل رودريغيز
كاتب مالي

بدأ ميغيل مسيرته المهنية الطويلة في مؤسسات مالية مرموقة مثل Banco Santander و Banco Central-Hispano.وهو مؤلف لكتب تداول العملات.