No major movers on display today – Market Overview – October 23

No major movers on display today – Market Overview – October 23

The only major economic figure released this week had an immediate effect on the market.

The German manufacturing PMI for the month of October has beaten all expectations with a figure of 58 vs. 55.1 expected.

After the publication, EUR/USD has rebounded from the 1.1810 zone to 1.1850, rejecting for the moment the perforation of the 100-hour SMA that currently passes through 1.1820.

The rebound of the pair can be considered an isolated movement in the middle of a market with little activity in which the main focus of attention continues to be on the North American elections, especially on the possibility of a result contest by Trump.

This would greatly weaken investors' risk sentiment and lead to a return to risk-off mode with the subsequent strengthening of the Dollar.

US Elections

The electoral debate yesterday morning has had no consequences in the market. It went smoothly with an unusually restrained President Trump.

Electoral polls continue to give the Democratic candidate the winner and we still have no news about the fiscal stimulus plan that, although the positions of both parties are close in terms of providing this stimulus around 2 trillion Dollars, it is taken for granted that cannot be approved and implemented until after the elections.

GOLD is stable with a slight bullish bias. The price of the precious metal is affected in the short term by its inverse correlation with the US Dollar. But the general consensus of the market points to its strengthening regardless of the evolution of the North American currency.

Obviously, a weaker Dollar would help the continuation of the upward trend of GOLD, something that would happen if the mood of the market returns to be more risk-prone and the Dollar stops acting as a safe haven.

The same forces that would weaken the Dollar are those that would give the precious metal an upward momentum from a fundamental perspective, these are the real interest rates in the United States at historical lows and the QE liquidity injection programs, and on this there is no doubt that they will remain active for years to come.

The levels to watch are the close resistance that is now in the 1932 area and the most important one at the 1975 level. Above here, new advances would open up towards the historical highs of 2075.

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