Global markets are preparing for a data-heavy Thursday, with PMI releases from Germany, the UK, and the U.S. expected to provide fresh insight into manufacturing and services activity. These reports will likely guide sentiment across major currency pairs, particularly amid shifting technical signals in AUDJPY, growing policy debates in Australia, and Japan's steady economic expansion. Traders face a landscape where both technical setups and fundamental themes are poised to influence market direction.
Overview
Global markets are preparing for a data-heavy Thursday, with PMI releases from Germany, the UK, and the U.S. expected to provide fresh insight into manufacturing and services activity. These reports will likely guide sentiment across major currency pairs, particularly amid shifting technical signals in AUDJPY, growing policy debates in Australia, and Japan's steady economic expansion. Traders face a landscape where both technical setups and fundamental themes are poised to influence market direction.
Key Economic Events
Thursday 10:30 am (GMT+3) – Germany: Manufacturing PMI (EUR)
Thursday 10:30 am (GMT+3) – Germany: Services PMI (EUR)
Thursday 11:30 am (GMT+3) – UK: Manufacturing PMI (GBP)
Thursday 11:30 am (GMT+3) – UK: Services PMI (GBP)
Thursday 16:45 (GMT+3) – USA: Manufacturing PMI (USD)
Thursday 16:45 (GMT+3) – USA: Services PMI (USD)
Chart Analysis
Since peaking at 0.97420 on July 15, AUDJPY has entered a corrective phase, defined by a consistent pattern of lower highs and lower lows—hallmarks of a developing downtrend. The initial reversal signal emerged via a failure swing, as the rally stalled at 0.97277, below the prior high, and was followed by a decisive break of support at 0.95618, paving the way for additional downside.
Price action remains under pressure, trading beneath both the 20- and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), though a “Death Cross” formation has yet to materialize. Technical indicators reinforce the bearish bias: the Momentum Oscillator is anchored below the 100 baseline, reflecting persistent downside momentum, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to hold below the neutral 50 mark, underscoring weak buying conviction.
Key Resistance Levels
Should the buyers take market control, traders may direct their attention toward the four potential resistance levels below:
0.94895: The initial resistance level is established at 0.94895, which mirrors the swing low from August 4.
0.96037: The second price target is set at 0.96037, representing the weekly Pivot Point, PP, calculated using the standard methodology.
0.96824: The third price objective is observed at 0.96824, corresponding to the high point marked on August 12.
0.97420: An additional upside target is projected at 0.97420, reflecting the swing high recorded on July 15.
Key Support Levels
Should the sellers maintain market control, traders may consider the four potential support levels listed below:
0.94391: The initial support level is seen at 0.94391, corresponding to the daily low reached on August 20.
0.93703: The second support level is estimated at 0.93703, representing the 161.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from the swing low, 0.94895, to the swing high, 0.96824.
0.92934: The third support level is identified at 0.92934, reflecting the 261.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from the swing low, 0.95618, to the swing high, 0.97277.
0.91774: An additional downside target is 0.91774, mirroring the 423.6% Fibonacci Extension drawn from the swing low, 0.94895, to the swing high, 0.96824.
Fundamentals
Australia's top economists and business leaders have laid out what they see as the four biggest steps the Albanese government must take to rescue the economy. The experts argued that ordinary Australians are being hit hard by rising taxes, runaway government spending, and soaring energy prices.
They said the government should put an end to "bracket creep," which happens when inflation quietly pushes people into higher tax brackets, leaving them with less take-home pay even if their wages rise. They also called for a major cut in government spending, pointing out that budgets have blown out since the pandemic and are now weighing down productivity and growth.
The group raised serious concerns about the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS), which is set to cost more than the defence budget this year. Some argued the program should be tightened so it supports only those with profound disabilities, rather than continuing to expand.
Finally, the experts said Australia should rethink its net-zero emissions targets. They warned that the shift to renewable energy will drive power prices even higher, making life more expensive for households and businesses.
Their message contrasts sharply with the government's own policies, highlighting a widening debate over how to fix Australia's slowing economy and restore confidence in the future.
On the other hand, Japan's economy grew for the fifth straight quarter in Q2 2025, with GDP rising at an annualised 1.0% and up 0.3% from the previous quarter, according to preliminary government data. The expansion was driven mainly by strong exports, which rose 2.0% and contributed the most to growth, while capital investment climbed 1.3% for a fifth consecutive quarter. Private consumption, which makes up over half of output, inched up 0.2%, highlighting ongoing domestic weakness despite external demand providing a solid boost.
Conclusion
With key PMI releases on deck, markets are bracing for potential volatility across major currencies. AUDJPY remains technically pressured, while Australia's policy challenges and Japan's steady export-led growth add further layers to the global backdrop. Traders should stay alert to data surprises, as both technical signals and fundamental developments could act as catalysts for directional moves in the sessions ahead.