This week's focus is on a series of high-impact economic releases from the US, Canada, and China that are expected to shape market sentiment and drive volatility across major currency pairs. Against this backdrop, AUDUSD has turned decisively lower, with technical signals reinforcing a bearish outlook while Australia's latest inflation data underscores renewed price pressures that may limit policy flexibility from the RBA.
Overview
This week's focus is on a series of high-impact economic releases from the US, Canada, and China that are expected to shape market sentiment and drive volatility across major currency pairs. Against this backdrop, AUDUSD has turned decisively lower, with technical signals reinforcing a bearish outlook while Australia's latest inflation data underscores renewed price pressures that may limit policy flexibility from the RBA.
Key Economic Events
Thursday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Prelim GDP q/q (USD)
Friday 15:30 (GMT+3) – Canada: GDP m/m (CAD)
Friday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Core PCE Price Index m/m (USD)
Sunday 04:30 am (GMT+3) – China: Manufacturing PMI (CNY)
Chart Analysis
Since reaching 0.66240 on July 24, AUDUSD has shifted into a clear downward trajectory. The reversal was first signaled by a Shooting Star candlestick, marking the exhaustion of the prior uptrend. This was subsequently confirmed by a non-failure swing reversal, where the July peak at 0.66240 exceeded the previous high before prices broke below the trough at 0.64533, validating the bearish turn.
Technical indicators strengthen this outlook. The 20-period EMA has crossed beneath the 50-period EMA, forming a “Death Cross” and reinforcing downside momentum. Oscillators echo the bearish bias, with the Momentum indicator holding below the 100 baseline, indicating persistent selling pressure, while the RSI remains under 50, underscoring prevailing negative sentiment.
Key Resistance Levels
Should the buyers take market control, traders may direct their attention toward the four potential resistance levels below:
0.65041: The initial resistance level is established at 0.65041, which mirrors the daily high reached on August 25.
0.65677: The second price target is set at 0.65677, representing the high point marked on August 14.
0.66240: The third price objective is observed at 0.66240, corresponding to the high point marked on July 24.
0.66475: An additional upside target is projected at 0.66475, reflecting the weekly resistance, R3, calculated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
Key Support Levels
Should the sellers maintain market control, traders may consider the four potential support levels listed below:
0.64135: The initial support level is seen at 0.64135, corresponding to the swing low from August 21.
0.63715: The second support level is estimated at 0.63715, representing the daily low marked on June 23.
0.63184: The third support level is identified at 0.63184, reflecting the weekly support, S3, estimated using the standard methodology.
0.62669: An additional downside target is 0.62669, mirroring the 261.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from 0.64135 to 0.65041.
Fundamentals
Inflation accelerated in July, with consumer prices rising 2.8 percent over the year, up from 1.9 percent in June and above expectations of 2.3 percent. The trimmed mean also climbed to 2.7 percent, reflecting stronger underlying pressures. Electricity costs were the main driver, surging 13.1 percent as government rebates rolled off and annual price reviews took effect.
Housing costs rose 3.6 percent, food and beverages gained 3 percent, and alcohol and tobacco were up 6.5 percent. Rents increased 3.9 percent, their slowest pace since 2022, while fuel prices fell 5.5 percent, partly offsetting price pressures.
The Reserve Bank has signaled inflation volatility through the second half of 2025 before a return toward its 2–3 percent target range. Markets currently price in a strong chance the cash rate will remain on hold in September, though the latest data reduces the scope for aggressive easing.
Conclusion
In conclusion, AUDUSD remains under pressure as both technical and fundamental signals tilt bearish. With key support levels in focus and a heavy data calendar ahead, the pair is vulnerable to further downside if momentum persists, while inflation dynamics in Australia add an extra layer of uncertainty to the RBA's policy outlook.