Markets head into Friday with a sharp focus on high-impact labor data, as Canada's Employment Change and the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) release are set to provide critical direction for currencies, commodities, and risk assets. With traders weighing expectations of Fed rate cuts against the possibility of stronger-than-anticipated job numbers, volatility is likely to spike across FX and crypto markets. Against this backdrop, technical setups in BTCUSD highlight key levels where momentum could either accelerate trends or trigger renewed consolidation.
Introduction
Markets head into Friday with a sharp focus on high-impact labor data, as Canada's Employment Change and the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) release are set to provide critical direction for currencies, commodities, and risk assets. With traders weighing expectations of Fed rate cuts against the possibility of stronger-than-anticipated job numbers, volatility is likely to spike across FX and crypto markets. Against this backdrop, technical setups in BTCUSD highlight key levels where momentum could either accelerate trends or trigger renewed consolidation.
Key Economic Events
Friday 15:30 (GMT+3) – Canada: Employment Change (CAD)
Friday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Non-Farm Employment Change (USD)
Technical Analysis
After recording an all-time high of $124,434.86 on August 14, BTCUSD has dropped nearly 11%, with stronger demand for gold amplifying the downward move. The reversal took shape immediately after the peak, marked by the formation of a Long Bearish Body candlestick—an early sign of trend exhaustion. This was later reinforced by a non-failure swing, as the price briefly pushed above the previous high before breaking beneath the prior trough at $111,831.31, confirming a shift in sentiment and intensifying bearish momentum.
The technical landscape further deteriorated with the appearance of a Death Cross, where the 20-period EMA crossed below the 50-period EMA. Bitcoin continues to trade under both averages, keeping the near-term bias tilted to the downside. A clean break below $107,185.85 would likely set the stage for deeper losses.
Momentum studies are aligned with this view. The Momentum Oscillator has fallen below the 100 threshold, signaling strong downside pressure, while the RSI remains below 50, pointing to persistent selling interest.
Upside Potential Targets
If the bulls manage to take control of the market, traders may consider the following resistance levels:
113,392.04: The first target is situated at 113,392.04, coinciding with the daily high recorded on August 28.
117,335.97: A subsequent level is observed at 117,335.97, aligning with the swing high from August 22.
124,434.86: The next major resistance is projected at 124,434.86, corresponding to the all-time high established on August 14.
130,192.50: An additional extended upside objective is positioned at 130,192.50, derived from the 161.8% Fibonacci Extension of the 123,179.39 to 111,831.31 move.
Downside Potential Targets
Should the bears continue to dominate the market, there are four potential downside targets that traders may consider:
107,185.85: The first key level is positioned at 107,185.85, corresponding to the trough established on September 1.
104,042.32: the next level is located at 104,042.32, derived from the 161.8% Fibonacci Etension of the 111,831.31 to 124,434.86 move.
98,041.67: A deeper retracement would bring focus to 98,041.67, aligning with the daily low registered on June 22.
89,898.94: Should bearish momentum accelerate further, an extended downside target is projected at 89,898.94, representing the 461.8% Fibonacci Extension of the 111,831.31 to 124,434.86 move.
Fundamentals
Bitcoin traders are positioning cautiously ahead of Friday's U.S. Nonfarm payrolls report, snapping up inexpensive out-of-the-money put options as protection against a stronger-than-expected jobs print. While recent ADP and JOLTS data have reinforced expectations for Fed rate cuts—a supportive factor for risk assets—an upside surprise in payrolls could weaken that outlook and weigh on BTC.
Analysts highlight strong demand for downside protection across both short- and long-term expiries, with options markets showing puts trading at a premium to calls. As of Thursday, bitcoin was hovering around $109,950, pulling back after failing to break above $112,000.
On another note, Bitcoin ETFs are quickly catching up to gold funds in assets under management, highlighting how investor demand for digital assets is challenging the long-standing dominance of the yellow metal. Gold has surged to record highs this year, supported by strong central bank buying and safe-haven demand, while bitcoin has seen rapid growth in ETF adoption since approvals in 2024.
Gold's track record as a crisis hedge and its central bank backing give it stability, but bitcoin offers higher upside potential, albeit with greater volatility. Analysts note that both assets are being driven by the same macro theme—concerns over currency debasement and declining confidence in sovereign debt—suggesting they may continue to rise in tandem, with gold as the conservative choice and bitcoin the higher-risk, higher-reward alternative.
Conclusion
With labor market releases from Canada and the U.S. looming, markets are set for heightened volatility. For Bitcoin, the technical setup points to a fragile structure—bearish momentum dominates unless resistance levels are reclaimed. A breakdown below $107,185.85 could accelerate losses toward deeper supports, while any upside revival will depend on a decisive move above $113,392.04. Traders should remain cautious heading into Friday’s data, as the outcome may define Bitcoin’s next directional move.