Bitcoin lost around 65% of its value in 2022. Considering last year, is Bitcoin a Buy, Sell, or Hold on the recent crash? CAPEX looks at Bitcoin's forecast for 2023 and beyond.
From the start, 2022 seemed the year of major price corrections. As all crypto price trends start with Bitcoin, the entire market followed the Bitcoin crash in 2022.
Bitcoin’s market cap reached over $1.27 trillion in November 2021, when Bitcoin surged to a record high of almost $69,000.
However, in 2022, Bitcoin lost almost 65% of its value from the beginning of the year and reached $17,000 in December 2022.
While Bitcoin has seen big price swings before, this bear market is affecting many investors, both retail and corporate. This Bitcoin crash was expected by many, as we already know that crypto assets have a volatile nature. But is the 2022 Bitcoin fall ever going to reverse? Nobody can predict the future of Bitcoin, and trading experts are trying to use all available market statistics to try to provide a better outlook on the cryptocurrency market.
As more crypto regulations are enforced worldwide, we will likely see price fluctuations in the market.
But what can we expect from Bitcoin in the future? What lows can BTCUSD price hit in 2022? Will the Bitcoin price surge or plunge in 5 years?
This article aims to address all the queries related to Bitcoin price prediction for 2022 and beyond, fundamentals, and technical updates.
Summary of Bitcoin Forecast & Price Predictions
- Bitcoin price prediction today: the actual rally should face strong resistance at 22,000-25,000 and send the price back to 18.000 during the first quarter as per charts and experts.
- Bitcoin price prediction 2023: while most experts forecast Bitcoin can reach 30,000 during the year, others said crypto winter could extend into 2023 and push Bitcoin price as low as 5,000.
- Bitcoin price prediction 2025-2030: most analysts point out that crypto investors will shift focus from speculative trading to the development and adoption of blockchains and applications powered by tokens with utility and cash flows.
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Bitcoin Outlook: Where we are now
Bitcoin is a decentralized cryptocurrency that enables secure, peer-to-peer transactions without the need for a central authority or intermediary. It was created in 2009 by an anonymous individual or group of individuals known as Satoshi Nakamoto. Unlike traditional currencies, which are issued by governments and controlled by central banks, Bitcoin is not backed by any physical asset or government, and its supply is limited by its underlying technology. Transactions with Bitcoin are recorded on a distributed public ledger called the blockchain, which allows for transparency and prevents fraud. Despite its potential benefits, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have faced regulatory challenges and a lack of widespread adoption.
Bitcoin is the first cryptocurrency ever created. The blockchain network is a trustless system that was built specifically to protect itself against fraud, although there have been some high-profile thefts reported over the years.
Because Bitcoin is the original cryptocurrency and the top crypto by market cap, its price tends to dictate the direction of the crypto market. In other words, the rest of the market follows Bitcoin’s price movements and trends.
Related: How to Buy Bitcoin
Bitcoin's price has been crashing since the beginning of 2022.
The digital asset has been dismissed many times as a worthless digital asset. But since its massive adoption, governmental institutions have started to create legal guidelines for it, which drove big whales to invest in digital assets.
As of 2021, Bitcoin has become an investment option even for institutions and public companies. This change brought in considerable investment from hedge funds and other big investors. However, many of them started to liquidate their risky investments as the stock market started to decline, and Bitcoin was one of the first to get hit.
The value of these assets can be highly volatile and is determined by a range of factors, including market conditions, investor sentiment, and global economic events. Additionally, making predictions about the future value of any asset is a complex task that involves many variables and uncertainties. It's important to remember that any prediction of the future value of Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency should be viewed with caution and should not be relied upon as investment advice.
In 2022, we’ve seen all cryptos crashing, and events such as the collapses of TerraUSD and LUNA in May 2022 have only accelerated the drop. Numerous crypto-related businesses are now facing financial difficulties. Because of this massive price drop, a few other centralized crypto platforms have declared bankruptcy in 2022, including Celsius Network (lending platform), Three Arrow Capital (crypto hedge fund), and Voyager Digital (crypto brokerage service).
In November 2022, the FTX crypto exchange filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. By the end of the same month, BlockFi, another cryptocurrency exchange, also filed for bankruptcy.
These events demonstrate that crypto is still a wild west, despite its widespread adoption over the past decade. The consumer protections offered by crypto exchanges are less strong than traditional financial products, such as FDIC insurance in the US. This protects savers from the possibility of their bank going under. Customer protection is especially important since some exchanges still take huge risks that may cause them to lose users’ assets.
The longer the bear market, the worse the market conditions are. And while many call it a bear market, some are starting to refer to it as the “crypto winter.”
Crypto winter is unlike other terms such as "market correction" or "bear markets." But we can define it as a prolonged period during which prices continue to drop, and nobody can predict when it will end.
In November 2022, the prices of the vast majority of the top 100 largest cryptocurrencies by market capital have fallen by double-digits compared to November 2022. In November 2022, the total market value (or market cap) of these 100 largest cryptocurrencies was $830 billion. This represents a 70% drop from the market cap of $2.7 trillion in November 2021.
The crypto winter of 2018 saw Bitcoin's price drop by more than half its high during a bull market for traditional finance. But nobody knows for sure when and if the 2022 crypto winter will end. Different companies may have different investment strategies. MicroStrategy is famous for its continuous acquisition of Bitcoins. In September 2022, this so-called crypto stock held a total of 130,000 Bitcoin. But others have long liquidated their digital assets.
Will Bitcoin’s price go even lower? Is it now time to go long or go short?
With 2023 already looking like another roller-coaster period for digital currencies, CAPEX looks at Bitcoin's price predictions from best-rated websites and experts.
Bitcoin Price Prediction 2022 and beyond
Basic analysis is necessary for long-term Bitcoin price predictions. Bitcoin is the first cryptocurrency ever created, and it has a few industry benefits. One of the first benefits of Bitcoin is that it offers an ideal digital economy. Even after this colossal price drop of almost 65%, the leading crypto remains in the top 30 global tradable asset classes and sits ahead of tech giants like Meta Platforms (META), Samsung, and Coca-Cola (KO).
In December 2022, Bitcoin was trading at about $17,000. This is a major level to monitor for crypto traders. Since the price of Bitcoin has been closely tied to the evolution of the stock market, investors are wary of the possibility of a recession. The U.S. Federal Reserve may continue to raise rates as they are trying to slow down inflation. The direct or Wells Fargo, Azhar Iqbal, suggested in December 2022 that “financial indicators are taken together with the inverted yield curve, markets are clearly braced for a recession in 2023.” The bank has also released a report stating that a recession in mid-2023 is most likely to happen.
The market is bearish, and the investors’ sentiment is fearful. If Bitcoin falls under the $17,000 threshold, it might trigger bears. However, the asset struggles to support its price zone. Traders are very cautious as the newfound yearly low could occur by the end of the year, and Bitcoin could fall to around $15,500. While every day may bring in new surprises, Bitcoin tries to consolidate its price.
All hopes to see Bitcoin reach $100,000 by the end of 2022 have been completely shattered. But even so, according to the five top crypto prediction websites, the general consensus is that Bitcoin could increase by +25% by the end of the year, making Bitcoin one of the best cryptocurrencies to invest in for 2023.
Bitcoin Price Predictions 2023
On BTC’s price prediction website, WalletInvestor, it is suggested that Bitcoin’s price will reach an average of $15,060 in 2023. The Bitcoin forecast for 2023 predicts that the price of Bitcoin could also rise throughout the year, reaching a maximum price of $25,263 in December 2023.
DigitalCoin is more bullish on its Bitcoin forecast. It predicts that the price of Bitcoin will average $40,979 by the end of 2023.
The long-term forecast for Bitcoin from Price Prediction suggests that the price will rise and reach an average of $26,715 by the end of 2023.
Trading Beasts has a less optimistic forecast and predicts that the price of Bitcoin could reach an average of $14,712 by the end of 2023.
According to Long Forecast, Bitcoin may continue on the bearish trend, and the average price of Bitcoin by the end of 2023 could be $9,470.
Big financial institutions have also made their own predictions, with JPMorgan suggesting that BTC could reach $13,000 in 2023.
It's important to remember that analysts’ forecasts can be incorrect when predicting Bitcoin prices. Analysts make projections based on a technical and fundamental analysis of the crypto's performance. However, past price performance does not guarantee future results.
You should do your research and remember that trading decisions are influenced by your attitude towards risk, market knowledge, and your tolerance for losing money. The consensus, when it comes to crypto, is to not invest more than you can afford to lose.
Bitcoin Forecast – Should you buy or wait for new lows?
Bitcoin (BTC) has been in a steady downtrend since the beginning of 2022. What caused the bearish trend? There is no clear explanation, and it could be due to a combination of factors.
While BTC started 2023 at around $17,000, the market sentiment is bearish. To avoid any unnecessary losses, traders may prefer to stay on the sidelines until a clear consolidation takes place.
However, the future perspectives are more optimistic. History has shown that it is a promising idea for everyone to search for entry points in the market when they are scared.
BTC price analysis suggests that Bitcoin is in the oversold territory, which could signal a short-term bottom.
The $16,000 - $20,000 trading zone of the last weeks might be seen as an opportunity to enter the market. In each of its major market cycles, Bitcoin's price historically bottoms out around the 200-week moving average.
Bulls hoped to recover the $19,000 area, which was expected to provide resistance. This it would signal that a bottom is in place and the end of the bear market. Also, the chart shows a bullish divergence for the weekly RSI.
The latest development signals a potential accumulation zone. There is some technical support for bullish Bitcoin price predictions.
When we compare this to the 2017-2018 correction, the current one has taken slightly more time (378 to 364 days) but has had a slightly lower rate of decrease (78% to 84%).
However, Bitcoin price should reach 25.000, a key resistance level, followed by a higher low around 19.000 to signal a strong reversal pattern and a change in the market sentiment.
Some crypto exchanges forecast Bitcoin prices will recover to between $20,000 and $50,000 in the second half of 2023, but only if FED can stop interest rate hikes by mid-2023 and begin cutting rates by early 2024.
A more trusted source regarding objective Bitcoin price predictions, VanEck, said the top-rated cryptocurrency will recover to $30,000 in 2023, but warns it could remain in the $10,000 to $20,000 range in the first quarter of the year.
Standard Chartered has warned investors that crypto winter will extend into 2023, leading to more liquidity issues and bankruptcies, as well as further deterioration of investor confidence. Standard Chartered forecast Bitcoin prices could fall another 70% to around $5,000 in 2023.
Bank of America says the recent cryptocurrency crash and bankruptcies have overshadowed the long-term thesis for digital assets and blockchain technology. The list of top 100 cryptocurrencies shows the prices are still up more than 2,000% on average since the end of 2016, and developer blockchain activity accelerated in 2022.
Experts warns that investors will shift focus from speculative crypto trading to the development and adoption of blockchains and applications powered by tokens with utility and cash flows.
As Bitcoin mining difficulty increases, miners might lose their interest and stop mining BTC when the market price falls below its breakeven price. This could lead to a miner capitulation which is a common outcome at BTC price bottoms.
While we can speculate about the potential price of Bitcoin over the next months and years, the truth is that Bitcoin still is a highly speculative investment. There are not much historical data to support these predictions. It is important to invest only what you are willing to lose and include some traditional investment instruments to build a strong portfolio.
Your investments should be small, and you should not place crypto investments above other financial goals, such as saving for retirement or paying off high-interest debt.
>> Learn more about Cryptocurrency trading
Bitcoin Price Prediction 2025
There are indications that the crypto market is entering a new era.
There is no doubt that BTC's long-term price prediction will rise as there is still optimism about the currency attracting more attention.
Investors should remember that markets are cyclical, and Bitcoin is no exception. The cycles last around four years, when another Bitcoin halving takes place. The next halving is expected in 2024, and the price is expected to rise after the mining rewards get reduced. That’s when Bitcoin becomes harder to mine. As with any scarce resource, it is expected to see its price rise.
According to DigitalCoinPrice, Bitcoin could reach an average price of $74,200 by the end of 2025.
Bitcoin Price Prediction 2030
Are you expecting Bitcoin to rise in value? The same applies to Bitcoin price predictions as it does to weather forecasts. The further we go into the future, the harder it becomes to try to predict the price of Bitcoin. The world of 2030 may be quite different from what we see now. What does 2030 hold for Bitcoin?
Many prediction platforms and fintech experts suggest that Bitcoin's price may not rise to previous highs. If the bearish trend continues, the outlook is a very negative Bitcoin price prediction. In the case of a complete collapse of the market, we could see Bitcoin’s price anywhere between $9,000 to as low as $2,000. If the stock market goes into meltdown, this could trigger investors to drain any funds that are left in the crypto market.
On the bright side, if the market recovers, Bitcoin could reach new highs by 2030. According to PricePrediction, the average Bitcoin value could be $387,000. DigitalCoinPrice is less bullish and predicts an average of $242,000 by the end of 2030.
Is It Possible to Forecast the Price of Bitcoin?
Many price predictions for Bitcoin are flawed because they lack the necessary analytical support. Investors will always be attracted to a high price point, especially one that is on an upward price trend. Someone holding a cryptocurrency priced at $0.01 could easily believe that it will rise to $10,000 just because it sounds good.
The problem is that predictions can be made without any evidence or analysis. However, three types of analysis have been used in the financial world for a long time to try and forecast prices and the evolution of markets.
- Technical Analysis
- Fundamental Analysis
- Sentimental Analysis
Bitcoin Forecast using fundamentals
Investors in financial markets use fundamental analysis to study and evaluate the variables that impact an asset’s price.
You can assess the intrinsic value of a cryptocurrency to determine if it is undervalued or overvalued. This can be achieved by analyzing qualitative factors like the state of the economy and cryptocurrency market conditions, as well as the management and market capitalization of crypto companies.
Fundamental analysis can help traders determine the price of a cryptocurrency based on a wide range of information. This could be a great way to make long-term investment decisions.
How to conduct a Bitcoin price prediction today using fundamentals
Fundamental analysis is when you examine the fundamentals of cryptocurrency projects, from their market capitalization to the utility and value of the native token.
Do not confuse fundamental analysis and technical analysis. Fundamental analyses of cryptos are more qualitative and less tangible than statistical trends like price charts or historical market data.
The fundamental analysis of cryptocurrency is like that of traditional financial markets with more traditional assets such as stocks. It is not as important to focus on a company’s historical financial performance, financial statements, or balance sheets.
The following parameters can be used to help investors predict trends in crypto markets:
- Market capitalisation
- Total and circulating supply
- Token utility and use cases
- Community size
- The team of the crypto project
- The crypto's trading volume
- Crypto exchanges listings
- Partnerships with trusted institutions
- The latest news about the coin
- Government rules and regulations
It is important to remember that fundamental analysis can only give you an overview of cryptocurrency investments. You can better understand the project and the future changes in cryptocurrency prices by looking at all the information. To get a better picture, you can also refer to the company’s whitepaper.
You can also examine blockchain metrics which provide crucial information about a cryptocurrency's technology and processes.
Bitcoin Forecast using technical analysis
Technical analysis uses historical price charts and market statistics to examine and anticipate price changes in the financial markets. It is founded on the concept that if a trader can recognize historical market trends, they may anticipate future price trajectories accurately.
Whereas fundamental analysis focuses on an asset's 'real value,' considering both external and intrinsic elements, technical analysis is only based on an asset's price charts. To anticipate future movements, all that is required is the recognition of patterns on a chart.
The ability to recognize price trend cues in a market is an important part of any trading strategy. All traders must devise a strategy for determining the optimal entry and exit points in a market and using technical analysis tools is a popular technique for doing so.
Technical analysis software is now so widely utilized that many people believe it has established self-fulfilling trading rules: As more traders use the same indicators to find support and resistance levels, more buyers and sellers will congregate around the same price points, repeating the patterns.
In general, technical analysts look at the following broad types of indicators, formations, and theories:
- Price trends (trendlines, channels, Elliott Waves, Dow Theory)
- Chart patterns (double tops and bottoms, head and shoulders, triangles, wedges)
- Price action (pin bar, inside and outside bars, and different candlesticks chart patterns like Doji candle)
- Trend following indicators (moving averages, Ichimoku, Parabolic SAR, ZigZag, ADX)
- Volatility indicators (Bollinger bands, ATR)
- Oscillators (RSI, MACD, CCI, Stochastic)
- Support and resistance levels (Fibonacci retracements, pivot points)
On Feb-Mar 2021, the Bitcoin trend formed a rising wedge. The rising wedge is a bearish pattern that begins wide at the bottom and contracts as prices move higher and the trading range narrows. Consists of two converging trend lines that connect the most recent higher lows and higher highs.
Once you have identified the rising wedge in an uptrend, one method you can use to enter the market with is to place a sell order (short entry) on the break of the bottom side of the wedge. To avoid false breakouts, you should wait for a candle to close below the bottom trend line before entering. Better, to wait for the price to validate the pattern with a weak countertrend that fails below the pattern (lower high).
The chart above demonstrates the area where price breaks the lower support trend line and the failed recovery where you should place the sell order.
Finally, the profit target is measured by taking the height of the back of the wedge and by extending that distance down from the trend line breakout.
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Bitcoin Price Prediction Using Market Sentiments
In finance, the term "sentiment" refers to a viewpoint or opinion about a market's condition. The sentiment of crypto market investors towards the asset is a description of their general emotions and attitudes. It reflects the collective psychology of all those involved in trading and developing cryptocurrency.
How investors feel about cryptocurrency can have a tangible impact on market cycles and the price. It can have serious implications if enough traders act on the ideas, thoughts, and feelings they share, regardless of whether they are based upon real-world data. This is evident in how tweets by Elon Musk have impacted Bitcoin's price (a bullish sentiment).
For analyzing the sentiment of cryptocurrency markets, there are many statistics you can use. The following statistics provide vital information about the movement and trajectory of cryptocurrency assets: funding rates, sentiment indices, social media, community analysis, and whale monitoring.
The funding rates are the monthly payments that traders receive based on price differences between the spot price of currencies and tokens and the price difference between cryptocurrency perpetual contracts. Positive funding rates indicate a bullish market.
A sentiment index is used to predict whether investors will act fearfully or greedily. It can be affected by volatility, market momentum, and investor responses to surveys. A fearful market can be an opportunity to buy if it is managed correctly. Conversely, a greedy market means that it is a good moment to sell.
Another crucial aspect for assessing sentiment in crypto markets is the community’s activity on social media, especially Twitter and Telegram. Investors would look for an active social network with meaningful interaction across platforms.
Whale monitoring is the process of keeping an eye out for big crypto players. A cryptocurrency whale is an investor who holds large-value transactions on multiple blockchains is called. Whale watchers spot major market participants' trades and trade accordingly.
Bitcoin Historical Prices
2009 - 2015
Bitcoin was first introduced in 2009. Back then, the price of BTC was zero. Its price reached $0.09 on July 17, 2010. In April 2011, the price was around $1 and surged to around $29.60 by June 2011, which was a 2,960% growth in only three months. Its price dropped to $2 by November 2011.
Bitcoin had a steady evolution throughout 2012, and by 2013 it surged again, reaching $230 by April and then $1,237 in October 2013. However, the Bitcoin price plummeted by 2014, and it was around $300 by the start of 2015.
The price of Bitcoin steadily climbed through 2016, reaching $900 by December 2016. In December 2017, Bitcoin's price reached $19,345.49, gaining massive social media attention. Major investors took notice of Bitcoin, and the cryptocurrency market exploded.
The price of Bitcoin fluctuated over the next two years, with only small spikes in price. In June 2019, prices surpassed $10,000, indicating a rebound in both price and trading volume. It dropped to $6,635.84 in December 2019.
The COIVD-19 pandemic caused the economy to shut down in 2020. However, Bitcoin's price surged into activity again. Bitcoin’s price was around $7,000 at the beginning of 2020. Then the price of the asset was accelerated by the pandemic shutdown and subsequent government policy. And they were right, as the price did increase about 416% by the end of the year, reaching $29,000 in December 2020.
It took Bitcoin less than a month to surpass its 2020 price record of $40,000, which happened in January 2021. Prices fell by half in the summer of 2021. Bitcoin’s price reached its lowest point on July 19, when it was trading at $29,795.55.
But the crypto market experienced another bull market during October and November, and Bitcoin reached an all-time record of $67,549.14 on November 7, 2021.
Bitcoin failed to break the $70,000 level and started dropping in late 2021. The cryptocurrency has slipped into a bear market since November 2021, recording one of its biggest historical crashes in 2022.
2023 and present
By the end of 2022, the cryptocurrency crashed below $20,000 for the first time since 2020, fueling extreme fear in the market. In December 2022, Bitcoin was struggling to maintain at $17,000.
Is Bitcoin worth buying in 2023?
With more uses of tokens and underlying networks of blockchain, the crypto economy will continue to grow in 2023. Decentralized finance, known as DeFi, will continue to grow. This is due to increased demand for borrowing, swapping, and lending cryptos, including Bitcoin.
How high can Bitcoin go in 2022?
Most cryptocurrency experts and big investments have bearish predictions for Bitcoin’s price for 2023. Some of the most optimistic forecasts for 2023 are $40,000, as predicted by DigitalCoinPrice.
Will Bitcoin crash in 2022?
The price of Bitcoin will continue to experience volatility in 2023, but it’s expected to be one of the most stable crypto evolutions. The co-founder of Mobius Capital Partners, veteran investor Mark Mobius, who correctly called the drop to $20,000 in 2022, said Bitcoin could crash to $10,000 in 2023.
Does Bitcoin have a future?
Bitcoin is on the verge of becoming mainstream as more institutional investors join the cryptocurrency market to combat the effects of fiat inflation. More services are starting to accept crypto payments, and the industry is booming, indicating a huge community interest.
What will Bitcoin be worth in 5 years?
The Bitcoin supply is limited to 21 million, and 18.5 million Bitcoins have already been mined within its ten years of existence. It is expected that the price of Bitcoin will experience a significant rise within the next 5 years.
What Bitcoin will be worth in 2025?
Experts predict that this could trigger a new bull market and increase Bitcoin's value to nearly $70,000.
According to DigitalCoinPrice, we could see an average price of $74,000 and a minimum price of $65,000 by the end of 2025.
What Bitcoin will be worth in 2030?
Investors and analysts cannot forecast the value of a highly volatile asset, but we could see Bitcoin rise to a value of around $242,000 per Bitcoin within the next five years, according to DigitalCoinPrice.
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