This week's calendar is packed with high-impact economic releases that could stir volatility across major currencies. From U.S. ISM data and Non-Farm Payrolls to Australia's GDP and Switzerland's CPI, traders will be watching closely for signals on global growth and monetary policy direction. Coupled with ongoing political and central bank developments in the UK and Japan, markets are set for an eventful week where fundamentals and technicals may align to drive sharp moves.
Overview
This week's calendar is packed with high-impact economic releases that could stir volatility across major currencies. From U.S. ISM data and Non-Farm Payrolls to Australia's GDP and Switzerland's CPI, traders will be watching closely for signals on global growth and monetary policy direction. Coupled with ongoing political and central bank developments in the UK and Japan, markets are set for an eventful week where fundamentals and technicals may align to drive sharp moves.
Key Economic Events
Tuesday 17:00 (GMT+3) – USA: ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)
Wednesday 04:30 am (GMT+3) – Australia: GDP q/q (AUD)
Thursday 09:30 am (GMT+3) – Switzerland: CPI m/m (CHF)
Thursday 17:00 (GMT+3) – USA: ISM Services PMI (USD)
Friday 15:30 (GMT+3) – Canada: Employment Change (CAD)
Friday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Non-Farm Employment Change (USD)
Chart Analysis
Since peaking at 200.273 on August 13, GBPJPY retraced 1.2% before finding support at the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), where buyers stepped back in, driving price action toward retesting the August high. Momentum indicators reinforce this bullish bias: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above the 50 threshold, while the Momentum Oscillator holds firmly above 100, both signaling sustained buying pressure. GBPJPY also trades comfortably above the 20-period EMA, keeping short-term sentiment constructive. However, a decisive breakout above resistance at 200.273 would be needed to unlock further upside potential toward 201.770 and beyond, while failure to clear this level risks renewed consolidation.
Key Resistance Levels
Should the buyers maintain market control, traders may direct their attention toward the four potential resistance levels below:
200.273: The initial resistance level is established at 200.273, which mirrors the high point from August 13.
200.588: The second price target is set at 200.588, representing the weekly resistance, R3, calculated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
201.770: The third price objective is observed at 201.770, corresponding to the 161.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from 200.273 to 197.854.
204.193: An additional upside target is projected at 204.193, reflecting the 261.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from 200.273 to 197.854.
Key Support Levels
Should the sellers take market control, traders may consider the four potential support levels listed below:
198.587: The initial support level is seen at 198.587, corresponding to the weekly Pivot Point, PP, calculated using the standard methodology.
197.854: The second support level is estimated at 197.854, representing the swing low marked on August 20.
196.538: The third support level is identified at 196.538, reflecting the weekly support, S3, estimated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
195.021: An additional downside target is 195.021, mirroring the low point from August 4.
Fundamentals
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has overhauled his team in a bid to tighten control over economic policy ahead of a challenging autumn Budget. New appointments bring added experience into Number 10, with the aim of strengthening oversight, counterbalancing the Treasury, and avoiding past policy missteps. The reshuffle comes as Labour faces a potential £20bn fiscal gap, likely tax rises, and fragile market confidence. Analysts warn that success will depend not only on the new personnel but also on a clear strategy and effective communication with financial markets.
On the other hand, a Bank of Japan deputy governor signaled support for further rate hikes, saying real interest rates remain low despite three increases since last March. He noted inflation is still above the 2% target but should ease as temporary pressures fade. At the same time, he warned that U.S. tariffs could weigh on global growth and Japanese corporate profits, adding uncertainty to the outlook. Markets are watching the BOJ's September 18 meeting for signs of when rate hikes may resume.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the week ahead combines a heavy flow of economic data with key political and central bank developments, setting the stage for heightened volatility. GBPJPY remains technically poised for further gains if resistance levels are cleared, while fundamental risks from the UK's fiscal outlook and Japan's rate path add further layers of uncertainty. Traders should stay alert to both data releases and policy signals, as these may determine whether markets break into new trends or revert to consolidation.