Markets are navigating a delicate balance of central bank signals, inflation pressures, and commodity strength. Gold is holding near record highs as safe-haven demand stays firm, while USD/CAD trades sideways ahead of key US and Canadian data. In equities, Endeavour Silver (EXK) has surged on rising silver prices and progress at its flagship Terronera project, highlighting how macro policy shifts and resource markets are shaping trading opportunities across assets.
Markets are navigating a delicate balance of central bank signals, inflation pressures, and commodity strength. Gold is holding near record highs as safe-haven demand stays firm, while USD/CAD trades sideways ahead of key US and Canadian data. In equities, Endeavour Silver (EXK) has surged on rising silver prices and progress at its flagship Terronera project, highlighting how macro policy shifts and resource markets are shaping trading opportunities across assets.
Safe-Haven Shine: Gold Eyes $4,000 Amid Uncertainty
Gold is trading near $3,770 per troy ounce, holding close to recent all-time highs as investors balance strong demand with potential risks.
Central banks continue to accumulate gold at elevated levels, using it as a hedge against geopolitical risk and dollar exposure. Meanwhile, inflows into gold ETFs remain strong, signalling sustained investment demand.
The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut has bolstered gold's appeal. Markets are watching closely for further easing. If the Fed signals more cuts or a dovish bias in future meetings, gold could see more upside. However, any indication that inflation remains sticky or that the Fed is reluctant to ease could cap gains.
Persistently elevated inflation globally is keeping real interest rates in focus. Gold tends to perform well when real rates are low or declining. Investors are also cautious about inflation eroding purchasing power, which supports gold as an inflation hedge.
A stronger dollar remains a headwind — it makes gold more costly in other currencies and reduces demand outside the US. Also, bond yields are being watched; rising yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.
Ongoing tensions in regions like Eastern Europe and the Middle East, concerns about trade, and broader global uncertainty are supporting gold's role as a safe haven. When equity markets or global growth show signs of weakness, demand for gold tends to rise.
- Price continues to trade above both the 20- and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages, signaling continuation of the prevailing trend.
- Near-term resistance is around $3,760. If gold manages to break through decisively, it could open the way toward $3,835 - $4,000.
- Key support is seen near $3,525 – $3,600. Below that, the next floor could be around $3,450.
- Momentum indicators are bullish, but with caution, as RSI has climbed into extreme overbought territory and price action shows negative divergence with the Momentum Oscillator.
- The price has already moved up strongly, so corrective pullbacks are possible before any further leg higher.
If the Fed signals or delivers more rate cuts, the US dollar weakens, or geopolitical risks escalate, we could see gold push toward $4,000+ in the next months. Central bank demand and ETF inflows would further fuel that. If inflation remains stubborn and forces tighter monetary policy, or if the dollar strengthens sharply, gold could correct or consolidate near $3,500. Also, a resolution to major geopolitical risks could reduce safe-haven demand.
USD/CAD Steady Ahead of Key US Data
USD/CAD is trading in a tight range as markets await fresh US economic data later this week. The pair has been consolidating between 1.3750 and 1.3850 following last week's mild Canadian inflation surprise and the Fed's 25-basis-point rate cut. Traders remain cautious, weighing Fed policy expectations against oil-driven support for the loonie.
The US dollar is staying steady as traders wait for new data on durable goods orders, which measure demand for big-ticket items like cars, appliances, and machinery. The report can give clues about the health of the US economy, so investors are holding back from making big moves until the numbers are out. Recent Fed communication suggests rates could stay restrictive into year-end, but markets are already pricing a potential cut in December. If PCE shows stubborn price pressures, the greenback could regain momentum. Conversely, weaker data would reinforce dovish bets and weigh on USD.
The Canadian dollar has been resilient, underpinned by steady energy prices and signs that domestic inflation is easing at a slower pace than the Bank of Canada would like. Last week's CPI held above 2.5%, keeping the central bank cautious about cutting too soon. Governor Macklem recently stressed patience, suggesting that while cuts may come later this year, the BoC won't act hastily. That stance provides a modest tailwind for CAD.
Crude oil, Canada's key export, remains stable near $60 a barrel. Supply concerns from OPEC+ discipline are balanced against softening global demand forecasts. While prices are not rallying, stability in energy markets is helping the loonie avoid sharper losses. Should oil break higher, it could tip USD/CAD lower; a slump would risk the opposite.
USD/CAD is consolidating between support at 1.3750 and resistance at 1.3850. A break below 1.3750 could open the way toward 1.3720, while sustained strength above 1.3850 might target 1.39240. Momentum indicators are bullish.
In the near term, USD/CAD is likely to remain range-bound, with traders waiting for US PCE and Canadian GDP later this month for a clearer direction. If US inflation surprises on the upside, the dollar could strengthen, testing higher resistance levels. Conversely, softer US numbers combined with steady oil could help the loonie push the pair lower. Overall, consolidation remains the base case until fresh macro signals break the deadlock.
Endeavour Silver (EXK) Stock: Striking Rich or Running on Empty?
Endeavour Silver (EXK) has caught investor attention after hitting fresh 52-week highs, with a 15.68% surge on the day, supported by rising silver prices and progress at its flagship Terronera project. On September 22, 2025, the stock traded around $7.82, extending a strong rally from earlier this year when it was below $3. The question now is whether this momentum is sustainable as the company ramps up new production but still struggles with profitability.
Endeavour Silver is a mid-tier precious metals producer focused on silver and gold mines in Mexico. Its core operations include the Guanaceví and Bolañitos mines, while its most important growth project, Terronera, has entered the commissioning stage. The company also recently integrated the Kolpa acquisition, adding to production capacity. Because of its asset base, Endeavour gives investors leveraged exposure to silver prices.
Endeavour Silver boosted Q2 2025 output by 13% to 2.5 million silver-equivalent ounces, lifting revenue 46% to $85.3 million. Strong cash flow, low costs, and $52.5 million in cash support growth, while the Terronera expansion, Minera Kolpa acquisition, and new copper stream advance its strategy.
The biggest catalyst is Terronera, expected to drive production growth and lower unit costs once fully operational. Rising silver and gold prices also improve margins significantly, giving Endeavour strong leverage to commodity markets. On the risk side, the company remains unprofitable, faces high startup and commissioning costs, and is exposed to operational challenges in Mexico. Financing needs could pressure shareholders through additional dilution, while any downturn in silver prices would quickly erode margins.
Endeavour Silver is in transition: production is climbing, and its flagship project could reshape its cost profile, but profitability is not yet in place. The stock appeals to investors bullish on silver who are comfortable with volatility and execution risk. If Terronera delivers and silver prices remain firm, EXK could justify its rally. Until then, caution is warranted — the story has promise, but also plenty of risk.