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Gold Price Prediction 2023-2025: Will gold rate decrease in coming days or rally from the key support level?

Gold forecast and price prediction 2023
Cristian Cochintu
Cristian Cochintu
28 August 2023

August is historically the second strongest month for gold returns. But with the factors that typically drive a strong August for gold likely to be absent this time round, will the gold rate decrease in the coming days and weeks? What is the gold price prediction for the next 5 years? Here we look at the gold price forecast for 2023 and beyond. 

Gold prices gained over 3% in July helped by a lower dollar and a spike in breakeven inflation rates. Looking forward, August has been a favorable month for gold returns over the past two decades, likely due to the anticipation of seasonal equity volatility in September, lower bond rates and consumer confidence, and some gold restocking in India and China.

This time round experts don’t expect these factors to be as supportive as in the past, with yields pressured higher, equities trending up, and conditions for a demand pick-up poor in India and China.

However, this does not diminish the gold forecasts that over the next few months, economic concerns will continue to mount, and asset volatility will rise with them – factors that should help underpin investor interest in gold.  

Gold Forecast & Price Prediction – Key Notes  

  • Gold Price Prediction Today: Gold prices could decrease in the coming days if the $1950 key support level won't hold. However, the gold forecast for August is bearish;
  • Gold Price Prediction 2023: Upside looks more probable than downside for gold in the current environment. Several analysts and agencies forecast gold could rise above 10-15% or even more in 2023. While Saxo Bank forecasted gold price to increase up to $3,000 in 2023, Societe Generale forecast gold price to decrease by $1,500 by the end of 2023. 
  • Gold Price Prediction 2024, 2025, 2030: While most analysts predict a moderate gold price increase in 2024, some gold rate predictions for the next 5 years indicated an eye-watering average price of around $6,700.  

With you can trade Gold through CFDs if you want to speculate on price movements or invest in Gold mining stocks or Gold ETFs. 

Gold Fundamental Forecast for September

According to the quantitative research team, there are good reasons why we may not experience a strong August this time round and they appear to outweigh the supportive factors.  

Why the Gold price will decrease in the coming days and weeks of August

  • August may see fewer purchases of physical gold due to high local gold prices, a weak overall economic climate in China and India, and the latter two countries' high local gold prices.  
  • Equity markets may be able to withstand difficult seasonal conditions as well, assisted by a solid Q2 earnings season, as they have been able to fend off declining fundamentals, poor internals, and elevated (retail) sentiment in H1. The demand for hedging may decline as a result, partially explaining the low implied volatility.
  • If investors do decide to hedge, however, the low market volatility environment has made it possible for them to purchase out-of-the-money options at values not seen since the Global Financial Crisis, which might have a negative impact on the demand for gold from those who are hedging.
  • Given a more optimistic inflation and economic forecast, the anticipated repatriation of Japanese investment capital, and the US Treasury's need to top off its coffers by up to US$1.3 trillion by year's end, longer-term US treasury yields are more likely to go up than down in August. As inflation declines, stable nominal yields and rising real yields could reduce the demand for gold as an investment (without causing widespread disinvestment). But even after taking yields and the US dollar into account, analysts discovered that August returns are still notably favorable. This may place more pressure on yields to have a strong month to knock gold out of its seasonal trend.

Why Gold price will increase in the coming days and weeks of August

  • Although yield differences between the US and Europe continue to be more significant, the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) move to loosen its Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy might spark yield volatility and cause the US dollar to decline. Longer maturity yields may rise as a result. The yen continues to be appealing due to the robust local equity market and the recovering economy. Higher volatility and a weaker US dollar are anticipated to help gold returns.
  • Futures on COMEX With net longs not extended and ETF outflows slowing, there is room for investment flows to rise with the proper stimulus.
  • The US economy still faces the possibility of a second wave of inflation, though it may not happen soon. According to indicators for the future, rising real earnings may rekindle price inflation. The manufacturing PMIs are trending higher, the NFIB small business survey of pricing plans, which closely tracks core PCE inflation, has started to tick up, and single-family building permits reached their highest level in a year, indicating that residential investment may have bottomed. Environments of high inflation historically have largely always arrived in waves.

Gold Fundamental Forecast 2023

Analysts state valid reasons why gold forecasts are bullish for the rest of 2023, even though August may not be as gold friendly as it has been in the past. According to the previous Gold Forecast & Price Predictions mid-year update, gold's potential for growth currently outweighs its potential for decline. For instance, sentiment and valuation appear high even though stocks have so far managed to withstand several challenges thanks to some growing underlying support. In addition, notwithstanding a change in attitude over the past few weeks, economic concerns are still very much present. The recent reduction of US debt ratings and the declaration of a significant increase in government borrowing is the latest in a string of indicators that disaster is on the horizon, including:

  • Commercial and industrial loan demand
  • Credit spreads
  • Leading Economic Indicator
  • US state and local income tax receipts
  • Real average weekly earnings
  • Bankruptcy filings
  • Weekly same-store sales
  • Real weekly retail sales
  • Annual S&P 500 interest expense.


According to the July macro data releases, everything is OK. ETF outflows and poorer coin sales in July (1.6t, down 0.7t y/y) are probably related to the fact that growth is holding up and inflation is moderately slowing. The likely final Fed rate hike of this cycle occurred in July, which sparked renewed hope for a gentle landing for the US economy.   

According to the July macro data releases, everything is OK. ETF outflows and poorer coin sales in July (1.6t, down 0.7t y/y) are probably related to the fact that growth is holding up and inflation is moderately slowing. The likely final Fed rate hike of this cycle occurred in July, which sparked renewed hope for a gentle landing for the US economy.

In the May update for the gold forecast and price predictions following the first interest rate pause in 15 months, we noted that analysts largely predicted gold prices would hold (if not increase) over the remainder of the year. But what do the experts say considering the Fed's latest move?

Gold prices have been consistently high this year, but when it comes to where they'll head next, experts have different takes.

From a fundamental Gold forecast point of view, some experts predict the Fed's rate pause will result in higher gold prices, pointing to the following:

  • Inflation: Gold is widely seen as a good hedge against inflation, but a rate pause might signal concerns about economic growth or inflation. This could lead investors to purchase more gold as a hedge against potential inflationary pressures.
  • The strength of the dollar: Gold tends to have an inverse relationship with the dollar. When the dollar is weak — as it is during times of high inflation — gold prices tend to rise. While rates are currently paused between 5% and 5.25%, they're still well above the Fed's target of 2%, suggesting gold prices are likely to remain high for some time.
  • Opportunity cost: Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold. If interest rates rise, investors may prefer to invest in interest-bearing assets such as bonds or savings accounts. With a rate pause, however, gold becomes more attractive, potentially boosting its price as demand increases.

Not all experts forecast gold prices to go up, however.

Some do not forecast gold prices to be affected that much by the Fed's pausing on raising rates this time around because most of the price movement has already been baked into the price of gold as the Fed has steadily raised rates over the past year and inflation has tamped down a bit.

How the Fed's announcement affects gold prices largely depends on how investors interpret the pause.

  • If investors interpret the pause as a sign of an impending economic slowdown, they might reduce their exposure to riskier assets like equities and shift towards safer investments, such as bonds or gold.
  • If investors see the pause as a signal that the Fed isn't as concerned about inflation as it has been, gold demand may decrease as investors put more of their money back into the stock market.


By increasing interest rates further in July, the ECB and BoE resumed their war against inflation. The peak rate estimate is currently being priced in the futures markets for October, two months sooner than it was a month ago, signaling a change in expectations. Undoubtedly, the worsening economic situation in both nations has contributed. A total of US$1.3 billion (18 trillion) was lost by 12 European gold ETFs last month.


The average Au9999 price in July rose 1.5% month over month to RMB456/gram, which is a record high. In the meantime, the average daily trading volume of Au9999, a proxy for China's demand for physical gold, fell m/m; seasonality was a major factor here, as gold consumption is typically low at the start of Q3. There may be further pressure due to the record-high gold price.

Central Banks

The most recent data available shows reported net purchases at 55t in June, the first significant month of net worldwide buying since February. Turkey's return to net buying after three consecutive months of significant net sales, along with purchases from China, Poland, and other countries, overshadowed the month's meagre sales. The underlying upward trend in central bank gold demand is still present, as stated by the latest 3rd party gold reports. 

To sum up: experts can make educated gold forecasts and price predictions, but as with any investment, there's no 100% guarantee. 

Technical gold forecast for September and beyond - Will the gold rate decrease in the coming days or bounce from support?

Gold and silver are nearing a key juncture point that might determine the trend for the coming weeks or perhaps months. Gold Price (XAU/USD) keeps bears in the driver’s seat at the monthly low, after witnessing a four-week downtrend to the $1,900 level.

Gold Technical Forecast – Monthly Chart Analysis

Gold's 3 attempts to break above the $2,000 psychological level failed as can be seen best on the monthly chart that highlights some bearish Japanese candlestick patterns.

Gold Technical Forecast – Monthly Chart Analysis

Earlier in July, Gold failed to rise above stiff resistance at the early-June high of 1983, slightly below the upper edge of the Ichimoku Cloud on the daily charts (see the daily gold analysis below also). The failed attempt to break above the hurdle opened the way toward the June low of 1892.

If the $1900 support level won't hold, gold is forecasted to decrease in the next days and even weeks up to the next support levels, $1850 and $1800.    

Gold Technical Forecast – Weekly Chart Analysis

On technical charts, the back-to-back doji candlesticks formed on the weekly charts in late July coupled with the sharp fall over the past two weeks raise the risk of a lower high being created in XAU/USD – the first time since the uptrend began in 2022. Importantly, it would raise the odds that the spectacular multi-month rally is corrective and not the start of a new uptrend – a point highlighted in the recent gold forecast & price predictions updates.  

Gold Technical Forecast – Weekly Chart Analysis

Again, we see here a key support level at $1900, with gold threatening to break below a vital cushion on the 200-day moving average, the June low, and the lower edge of a rising channel since early 2023. Any break below could pave the way toward the February low of 1805. Importantly, it would establish a lower-high-lower-low sequence from early 2023. 

Gold Technical Forecast – Daily Chart Analysis

The daily gold chart analysis shows a lower high and the same key support level at $1,900 or the 200-day moving average.  

Gold Technical Forecast – Daily Chart Analysis

In sum, Gold is attempting to break a key support level. If support will hold and a fake breakdown will appear, a rally toward new record highs became more likely. If support won't hold a gold price decrease in the coming days and weeks towards the next key support $1,800 becomes the most likely scenario. 

Gold Analysis Today – The Main Drivers for 2023 and Beyond 

Despite the somewhat weak performance in 2022, there are many reasons to believe that gold will produce positive returns in 2023. 

Central bank purchases 

Global central banks have been purchasing gold at unprecedented levels, especially those in China, Turkey, and India. The pace of this tendency has accelerated. In order to diversify their foreign exchange holdings and lessen their reliance on the U.S. dollar, they have been boosting their gold reserves in recent 13 years. 

The World Gold Council reports that the total amount of gold demanded by central banks in 2022 has surpassed all annual totals since 1967 with 673 tons! 

Global central banks bought about 400 tons of gold during the third quarter of this year, a huge rise. The World Gold Council has kept data for this sector going back to 2000, and this quantity of demand is over twice as high as the previous record set in the third quarter of 2018. The year-to-year total of roughly 700 tons, which is more than any other full-year total since 1967, also represents the ninth quarter in a row of net acquisitions (when the US dollar was still backed by gold). 

In response to growing inflation, central banks are moving towards safer assets, according to World Gold Council. The People's Bank of China said in November 2022 that it had purchased 32 tons of gold for about $1,650 per ounce. Since September 2019, this is the first time the central bank has disclosed a change to its gold holdings. 

In 2023, this pattern is anticipated to persist, which could result in a rise in gold prices. The central bank purchases is one of the main reasons gold price predictions were upgraded during 2022. 

Jewelry demand 

According to the World Gold Council, there was a high demand for gold jewelry in the third quarter of 2022, with consumption exceeding 523 tons. Despite a worsening global economic climate, this is a 10% year-over-year gain. 

Over the previous ten years, the demand for gold jewelry has fluctuated between 840 and 2,100 tons annually, with an average of roughly 1,500 tons. 

Demand for gold jewelry is anticipated to rise further if COVID-related restrictions are loosened and China's economy is allowed to resume. With approximately 700 tons of gold jewelry sold there each year, China is currently the largest gold jewelry market in the world (based on the most recently available 2021 statistics). 

Most specialists predict that the Chinese economy will fully reopen by the middle of 2023, and there are even rumors that it has already begun. 

Cultural customs and the rising prosperity of the middle class, which views gold ownership as a symbol of sound financial judgment and a guarantee of good fortune, are what fuel the demand for gold jewelry in China. 

In China, cultural values and the growing middle class's prosperity have an impact on the desire for gold jewelry. Owning gold is viewed by many Chinese people as a sign of wise money management and good fortune. You can place a wager that Chinese citizens will possess more gold in 2023. 

New mine supply 

About 75% of the annual supply of gold comes from mines, hence mining output heavily influences the availability of gold. However, the production of mines worldwide has been sluggish recently and seems to have peaked in 2018. 

The World Gold Council estimates that as of the third quarter of 2022, there were 1,215 tons of total gold supply, rising a little (1% annually). The council warns that "significant fresh discoveries are increasingly rare," even though mine output levels have grown since 2008. 

Finding high-grade, profitable gold mines is getting more and more difficult, and growing inflation, which raises the expenses of developing and running a mine, is making it more and more difficult for gold projects to be economically viable. 

Federal Reserve 

Interest rates have been rising at the highest rate in recent memory according to the Federal Reserve. But in the upcoming years, it is anticipated to shift to lower rates. According to some observers, this might happen as early as the end of 2023, when the economy is expected to be recovering from the COVID-19 epidemic and possibly facing additional difficulties like a recession. 

Since gold does not pay interest, lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding it and increase its appeal to investors, which is typically viewed as being favorable for gold prices. 

One of the key variables that might affect demand for gold is interest rates, which can change how desirable gold is as a store of value or an inflation hedge. Investors may be more inclined to buy gold as a safe haven asset when interest rates are low, which might increase the price of the metal. 

U.S. dollar 

The value of the US dollar and gold prices typically move in opposite directions. Gold prices frequently increase as the value of the dollar decreases. 

The recent decline in the value of the dollar is anticipated to continue in 2023, which could result in higher gold prices. 

The dollar is anticipated to continue strong in the first half of next year but to weaken in the second half, according to Wells Fargo analysts. Market insiders predict that the dollar will start to decline in the middle of 2023 as they prepare for the potential of loosening monetary policy in the US. 

According to the analysts, quoted in, "when the Federal Reserve closes its tightening cycle and US economic prospects worsen, we expect the dollar will enter a period of cyclical depreciation and decline versus most foreign currencies for the duration of next year." We believe that the dollar's decline will be widespread enough to allow most G10 and emerging market currencies to gain ground on the greenback in 2023. 

How do analysts see the price of Gold moving in the coming months? Below, we look at some of the latest gold price predictions and gold price forecasts for 2023, and beyond. 

Gold Price Prediction for 2023: What Do Experts Predict?  

Now that we've evaluated the key drivers behind gold prices in 2023, where are gold prices likely heading in 2023? We've pulled some of the most notable gold price predictions we could find on the web from top-rated analysts and investment banks.

Inflation and interest rate decisions remain determinant factors

There is widespread agreement among analysts as to the likely driving or curbing factors for the gold price next year. However, they have different ideas about where the gold price could stand at the end of 2023. 

The World Bank assumes that US interest rates will continue to rise and sees gold at US$1,700 at the end of 2023. The forecast of the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group is even more pessimistic, forecasting Gold at $1,650 by the end of 2023. 

The analysts of Fitch forecast gold at US$1,600 at the end of 2023, while Société Générale expects only 1,550. This is the most bearish gold price prediction for 2023.

Also, T.D. Securities is among the most bearish on gold in 2023. The Canadian bank sees the precious metal falling to $1,575 by the first quarter of next year.

However, the bank forecast gold prices to rally back to $1,800 an ounce by the end of the year and it sees prices rising to $1,900 by the end of 2024.

Bank of America looks for the FED to end its tightening cycle in March and sees the first rate cut by the end of 2023.

In this environment, Michael Widmer, commodity strategist for Bank of America, forecast gold prices to have a path to $2,000 an ounce.

Commodity analysts at Commerzbank are also expecting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by the end of the year. However, they added that in the short-term, gold prices could struggle as investors adjust to a new terminal rate hike above 5%.

"After what is expected to be the last interest rate hike in March, a period of unchanged rates is likely to follow before the Fed cuts the key rate again toward the end of 2023 in view of a weak economy and lower inflation. The Fed, on the other hand, is not yet forecasting this. As soon as the Fed also adopts this view, the gold price should rise again," said analysts at the German bank.

"This should be the case in the second half of next year, because by then, inflation will have fallen far enough, and the U.S. economy will have been in recession since the beginning of the year. The gold price should also be supported by the weakening of the U.S. dollar expected by our currency strategists."

Commerzbank forecast gold prices at $1,850 by the end of 2023.

Base rate cuts at the end of 2023 could boost the gold price

The analysts of Swiss UBS assume that the US base rates could be slightly lower again towards the end of the coming year and expect a positive gold price development with a target price of US$1,900. Analysts at Deutsche Bank take a similar view, forecasting gold at 1,900 by the end of 2023. 

The economic news service Reuters forecasts a year-end price in 2023 of only $1,750, while the analysts of Netherlands-headquartered ABN Amro share the sentiment of their Swiss colleagues and forecast a gold price of US$1,900. As in 2022, the euro gold price development might differ significantly depending on the strength of the US currency, which may well continue in 2023.

Along with Bank of America, some of the most optimistic gold price predictions for 2023 are coming from Swiss Asia Capital and Saxo Bank. 

Gold prices could surge to $4,000 per ounce in 2023 as interest rate hikes and recession fears keep markets volatile, said analysts of Swiss Asia Capital

The price of the precious metal could reach between $2,500 and $4,000 according to their latest 2023 gold price prediction.

Swiss Asia Capital explained that many economies could face “a little bit of a recession” in the first quarter, which would lead to many central banks slowing their pace of interest rate hikes and making gold instantly more attractive. He said gold is also the only asset that every central bank owns.

Ole Hansen, head of the commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said that he doesn't expect the Federal Reserve to bring inflation under control.

"The risk of a recession and the FOMC hiking into economic weakness – potentially without succeeding in getting inflation under control - continues to strengthen the upside risk for investment metals in 2023," he said.

Saxo Bank forecasts Gold will rocket to $3,000 in 2023.

Is a $3,000+ gold prediction likely in 2023?

No, most likely. After all, it’s an outrageous forecast. A second wave of inflation is possible, and it can be more persistent than some optimists assume, but very few believe that it will get out of control. Stagflation could complicate curbing inflation to the target, as the Fed could be forced to stimulate the economy at still relatively high inflation.

However, the Fed’s quantitative easing and cuts in the interest rates shouldn’t prompt commercial banks to expand credit significantly during the recession, which means that the broad money supply won’t accelerate again (which would translate into a new burst of inflation).

And, of course, a gold price prediction of $3,000 or above is unlikely, even with inflation ultimately beating central banks. Given the current level of about $1,900, it would be around a 60% surge. The last time gold achieved such an annual rate of returns was in the 1970s. Since then, the highest annual rate of return was 32% in 2007, only after the Great Recession started. In the pandemic year of 2020, gold soared by about 25%.

Assuming a 25-32% surge, as in the last three recessions, the price of gold could skyrocket to $2,200-$2,400. It seems to be a more reasonable gold price prediction, but even this gold forecast could be too outrageous. If the recession arrives in the second half of 2023 rather than in the first six months, the upside potential of gold will be more limited, especially if we see a rush towards cash and a selloff in the gold market in the first phase of the economic crisis. 

In such a scenario, it would be gold’s great achievement to surpass its previous all-time peak of $2,075. 

Other Gold Price Predictions 2023 

Analysts expect that production will expand through 2023, given that prices are well above production costs. Uncertainty over the end of the economic recession and higher rates of inflation may push gold prices higher.

Wallet Investor - Neutral Gold price prediction 2023

Gold price is forecasted to close Q3 at $1,983 and 2023 at $1,971. The forecasting agency is not expecting Gold to reach new highs during the year, but to consolidate around the $2,000 level.

Long Forecast - Neutral gold price prediction 2023

Gold price prediction at the end of 2023 is $2,076. The AI-based website is forecasting gold to trade as high as $2,180 during the month of December. This is not one of the most bullish gold price forecasts for 2023.

Coin Price Forecast - Neutral to bullish gold price prediction 2023

Gold price started in 2023 at $1,830.10. At the end of H1 2023, Gold traded at $1,962.00, so the price increased by 7% from the beginning of the year. The forecasted Gold price at the end of 2023 is $2,148 - and the year-to-year change +17%.

Trading Economics - Neutral to bullish gold price prediction 2023

Gold is expected to trade at 2,000 USD/t oz. by the end of Q3, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, they forecast gold to trade at 2,053 in 12 months' time.

Gold Price Forecast 2024

Overall, the price of gold in 2024 will go up, and no significant falls are expected. However, investors should keep in mind that this growth will be at a slow pace. There is good news for long-term investors - the volatility in 2024 is said to be low. Let's dive into the details.

Coin Price Forecast 

In the first half of 2024, the Gold price will climb to $2,152; in the second half, the price would add $255 and close the year at $2,524, which is +23% to the May 2023 price.

Wallet Investor  

The opening price in January will be $2,024. The whole year will show stable growth. At the end of June, the Gold price prediction is $2,076. The last day of 2023 will leave us with gold trading at $2,082. 

Long Forecast  

The opening price in 2024 will be $2,076. No sharp movements are expected. By the beginning of July, the gold price will decrease to $2,000. The gold price forecast for 2024 is to trade slightly above $2,000.

Gold price prediction for the next 5 years 

After a three-year range market, the price of gold may resume the overall uptrend. Its recent awakening occurred right after the gold price dipped below the $1,700 mark for the first time in a one-and-a-half year on July 21 and continued to gain over 25%. 

What is the gold price prediction for the next 5 years? See below the forecaster's projections for gold prices in the 5 years approximately. 

Though it is hard to say for sure for such a long period of time, experts from different resources concur that gold will continue rising. However, they have opposite opinions about the speed of this growth.

Gold price forecast for the next 5 years from Wallet Investor 

Wallet Investor offers a gold price forecast for the next 5 years. The opening Gold price in 2025 is forecasted to be $2,108. The closing price in June 2025 will be $2,075, and it will continue going up - at the end of December, the closing price will be $2,092. The first half of 2026 is also nice and pleasant for gold investors. The following periods will also demonstrate the uptrend, and the year will close with $2,168. Moderate growth will continue in January 2028. The gold price prediction for the next 5 years is $2,250.

Gold Price Prediction for the next 5 years from Long Forecast 

The Economy Forecast Agency provides a gold price prediction only till the end of June 2027. The 2025 Gold price prediction is a trading range between 1900 and 2100 USD. The gold prediction for the next 5 years is $2600.

Gold Price Prediction 2025-2030 from Coin Price Forecast 

2025 will start with a price of $2,431, and the uptrend will continue: mid-year will give us $2,537. Then, the price will start a strong uptrend and the figures will go up till the middle of 2028; at that point, the price will reach $3,284. The growth will continue at a faster pace since then. By the end of 2030, the price will be $4,311.  Coin price forecast is the only agency providing a gold price forecast for the next 10+ years. According to their algorithms, the gold price is forecasted to reach $5,357 by the end of 2034.  

*It is worth keeping in mind that both analysts and online forecasting sites can and do get their predictions wrong. Keep in mind that past performance and forecasts are not reliable indicators of future returns. When considering gold price predictions for 2023 and beyond, it’s important to keep in mind that high market volatility and the macroeconomic environment make it difficult to produce accurate long-term gold analysis and estimates. As such, analysts and forecasters can get their gold forecast wrong. 

What moves the price of gold in the future?

Unlike almost any other asset, gold is typically neither a safety nor a risk asset, though the popular financial media have often called it both over the years (depending on how gold has been performing in recent months). Instead, it’s a currency hedge for which demand rises when there are concerns about inflation diluting the purchasing power of fiat currencies (particularly those most widely held, like the USD and EUR). In other words: 

  1. In times of optimism (aka risk appetite), gold can either appreciate if markets believe growth will lead to inflation, or it can fall if the desire for higher yields overrides inflation concerns and investors move into more classic risk assets which they believe will provide better returns.
  2. In times of pessimism (aka risk aversion), gold can either rise if markets believe that stalling growth will lead to rising deficits and/or money printing that could cause inflation, or it can also fall on fears of deflation or a market crash that feeds demand for cash. In times of panic, traders seek cash either to cover margin calls or other obligations or to be ready to go bargain hunting.   

    If pessimism turns to panic, then gold could either:   
    – rise if markets are more concerned about the USD or EUR losing their purchasing power than about near-term liquidity needs, as was the case at times from 2009 through 2011.   
    – fall if markets are more concerned about liquidity than the loss of purchasing power, as was the case in late 2011. 

When markets are not concerned about fading purchasing power, the major currencies tend to gain against gold. That can happen due to: 

  • Low inflation expectations, as we saw starting in late 2011. Concerns about the global economy kept inflation fears low, and so gold began a multi-month downtrend. 
  • Panic periods are when markets fear a financial crisis, and liquidity becomes the top priority. We saw gold sell-off during times of peak anxiety about the US or EU. During these periods, investors tend to sell gold to raise cash. 

How Has the Price of Gold Changed Over Time? 

Below is a Gold chart that shows how the price of gold changed over the past ten years. In order to make our predictions and forecasts as accurate as possible, it’s important to look back at such historical data.   

gold analysis 2023

One of the biggest drivers of gold is currency values. Because gold is denominated in dollars, USD can have a significant impact on the price of gold. A weaker dollar makes gold relatively less expensive for foreign buyers and may lift prices. On the other hand, a stronger dollar makes gold relatively more expensive for foreign buyers, thus possibly lowering prices.

The price at the beginning of 2019 was $1,413.75. Though it fell insignificantly in April to $1,353.26, it continued going up till August and became $1,601.35. However, in November, the price lowered to $1,524.80. The reason for this was the falling gold demand in India. Actually, it fell to its lowest level in three years. The World Gold Council (WGC) explained that this was due to  domestic prices climbing to a record against a backdrop of falling earnings in rural areas.

The price was able to recover and rose up to $2,063.56 in August 2020. This peak hasn’t been reached again yet. The coronavirus pandemic and the unprecedented flow of money supply by government stimulus triggered sharp buying in the bullion metal in both domestic and global markets in 2020. 

The price didn’t manage to maintain this high and fell to $1,840.38 in November 2020. Pfizer was the main reason. The US-based pharmaceutical corporation announced the Covid-19 vaccine news. They made a surprising announcement regarding the status of their coronavirus vaccine trial.

The price managed to recover a little bit, but that didn’t save it from another fall in March 2021 - it fell to $1,742.68 as the dollar strengthened after the jump in US private-sector jobs. “Gold looked as if it was topping out,” Ross Norman, Chief Executive Officer at Metals Daily, said. “Some profit-taking exacerbated the decline, and gold will rebuild from here.” He was right - in May 2021, the price became $1,904.76. Little did he know that the price would again go down, reaching $1,771.60 because of problems with the coronavirus in India. 

There were no sharp ups or downs during summer. The first month of Fall 2021 ended with a price decline to $1,726.11 per ounce. The next seven weeks showed a strong recovery – up to $1,866.96. This happened due to the investor's rush into safe-haven assets. A stronger dollar and the Fed policy led to the following sharp decline. However, the situation changed in December when the bulls took the trend. 

Between the end of January 2022 and the 8th of March 2022, gold had a 16% gain, trying to surpass its previous record high of $2075 per ounce set in August 2020 as a result of the conflict in Ukraine that increased geopolitical tensions and market risk aversion. 

Midway through March 2022, the Fed announced its first interest rate increase of the year, and gold started to flex lower. The downward trend in gold prices continued through the summer and into Q3 when Fed Chair Jerome Powell quickened the pace of rises. In the midst of a dollar rally and rising Treasury yields, gold plummeted 22% from its March highs to September lows at 1,615/oz. 

After reaching a so-called technical "triple bottom" in the months of September, October, and November, gold started to rise by 12% by the end of December. 

Overall, gold's performance in 2022 was inconsistent when compared to that of other important metals. Copper (-14%) and palladium (-4.2%) were outperformed by the yellow metal, but they lagged behind silver (+4.5%) and platinum (+4.6%). 

Conclusion: Is Gold a Good Investment? 

When you are bullish on gold, you are essentially making a trade where you are hoping for a weaker USD and lower US yields. While the latter may now be more difficult to find, yield downside risks have been increasing. We may be past the peak of central bank hawkishness as the Fed and other central banks are attempting to decrease the rate of rate increases. 

A more inverted yield curve and multi-month drops in the CB leading index data are only two of the warning indications of a US recession that are growing. More so than many economists, both have a track record of accurately predicting recessions. As a result, the likelihood that yields will decrease going forward is growing.   

Although there have been ups and downs in the price of the precious metal in 2022, the 2023 gold forecasts and price predictions are positive.

  • Société Générale - $1,550 
  • Fitch - $1,600 
  • ANZ - $1,650 
  • Trading Economics - $1,711 
  • Reuters - $1,750 
  • Wallet Investor - 1,971  
  • Long forecast - $2,076 
  • Coin price forecast - $2,148 
  • ABN AMRO - $1,900 
  • Commerzbank - $1,900 
  • Wells Fargo - $1,900 - $2,000 
  • Saxo Bank - $3,000 
  • Gov Capital - $3,100 
  • Swiss Asia Capital - $4,000 

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Gold Price Forecast FAQ






Cristian Cochintu
Cristian Cochintu

Cristian Cochintu writes about trading and investing for Cristian has more than 15 years of brokerage, freelance, and in-house experience writing for financial institutions and coaching financial writers.