Markets are navigating a pivotal week shaped by central bank decisions, inflation data, and shifting growth signals. GBP/USD is steady above 1.3600 as UK inflation remains elevated and the dollar softens ahead of the Fed's expected rate cut. Equity markets highlight Ferguson's resilience, with strong infrastructure demand offsetting housing weakness, while commodities see Silver holding above $40 per ounce on robust industrial use and safe-haven demand. Together, these moves reflect the push and pull between slowing growth, sticky inflation, and policy uncertainty.
Markets are navigating a pivotal week shaped by central bank decisions, inflation data, and shifting growth signals. GBP/USD is steady above 1.3600 as UK inflation remains elevated and the dollar softens ahead of the Fed's expected rate cut. Equity markets highlight Ferguson's resilience, with strong infrastructure demand offsetting housing weakness, while commodities see Silver holding above $40 per ounce on robust industrial use and safe-haven demand. Together, these moves reflect the push and pull between slowing growth, sticky inflation, and policy uncertainty.
GBP/USD Steadies with Inflation Stubborn and Fed in Focus
Following the release of UK inflation data, GBP/USD is holding above 1.3600. UK CPI came in steady at 3.8% year-on-year in August, matching July and in line with expectations. The data shows cooling in some areas (core inflation, services prices), which slightly dampens hawkish pressure, though headline inflation remains well above target. The dollar faces downward pressure ahead of the Fed meeting, giving sterling a modest tailwind.
The CPI reading of 3.8% y/y in August 2025 confirms persistent inflation pressures, keeping the Bank of England cautious about further easing. Core inflation (excluding volatile items like energy and food) eased slightly to 3.6% from 3.8%. Services inflation also softened somewhat (from about 5.0% to 4.7%). Food & non-alcoholic drinks inflation rose to ~5.1%, pushing household cost pressures higher. With these mixed signals, the BoE is likely to hold rates steady at 4.00%, focusing on whether inflation will continue to moderate.
Markets expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in its upcoming meeting, largely because U.S. inflation and labor data have shown signs of cooling. The dollar is under mild pressure as investors digest these expectations.
UK inflation staying elevated supports the pound and reduces the odds of imminent BoE easing. The slight cool in core and services inflation may limit upside moves, but still leaves room for hawkish surprises. USD weakness due to expected Fed rate cuts is giving GBP/USD space to move higher, but surprises in U.S. data will be the key risk.
- GBP/USD continues to trade above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, supporting short-term bullish momentum.
- Resistance is found around 1.36830-1.37880.
- Support lies around 1.34921-1.35940; a break below could expose lower price levels near 1.3350.
- Momentum indicators like RSI show positive sentiment.
GBP/USD is likely to lean modestly bullish in the near term. The steady inflation reading keeps BoE on guard, and USD is challenged by rate-cut expectations. If sterling can break above 1.36830, it could aim toward 1.37880. On the flip side, any hawkish Fed signal could pull USD higher, potentially dragging GBP/USD back toward 1.3500.
Ferguson (FERG) Stock: Building Strength or Hitting a Wall?
Ferguson (FERG) has drawn investor attention after posting stronger-than-expected quarterly results. The company continues to benefit from commercial and infrastructure demand, despite weak housing markets. With the stock trading around $224–235 a share as of September 16, 2025, the key question is whether its growth can hold up in a slowing economy.
Ferguson is the largest distributor of plumbing, heating, air-conditioning, lighting, and waterworks supplies in the U.S. It serves contractors, builders, and infrastructure projects across both residential and non-residential markets. Because of its wide reach, investors often see Ferguson as a barometer for construction activity.
In its most recent quarter, Ferguson reported about $8.5 billion in sales, nearly 7% higher than last year. Full-year sales came in at $31 billion, up around 4%. Profits also improved, showing the company is managing costs well. At around $224–235 a share, the stock trades at roughly 24–25 times earnings. That makes it more expensive than some industrial peers, but investors see the premium as justified given its steady growth. Ferguson also pays a dividend of $3.32 a year, equal to a yield of about 1.4–1.5%, providing a modest income stream.
Growth is supported by strong demand in non-residential projects like offices, factories, and infrastructure upgrades. Acquisitions and share buybacks also add shareholder value. On the flip side, residential sales are under pressure, with fewer new home builds and renovations. Rising costs, supply-chain pressures, or a slowdown in construction spending could also weigh on results.
Ferguson (FERG) is holding up well thanks to its strong commercial and infrastructure sales. The main factor to watch is whether these areas can stay strong enough to offset continued weakness in housing. For now, the stock offers reliable growth and a small dividend, but investors should remain cautious about economic headwinds.
Can Silver Hold the $40 Line?
- Silver is trading around US$41-42 per ounce, having recently hit a 14-year high.
- The September 2025 COMEX futures contract (SIU25) has been fluctuating around US$41.90 per ounce.
The market is anticipating that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, which makes non-yielding assets like Silver more attractive as the opportunity cost of holding them decreases. A weaker dollar has also supported Silver, since a softer greenback makes it cheaper for buyers using other currencies, boosting demand abroad.
Industrial demand remains strong, particularly from sectors linked to green energy, electronics, and electric vehicles, with Silver playing a critical role in clean tech applications such as solar panels. On the supply side, availability is constrained because much of Silver is produced as a by-product of mining other metals, limiting the ability to ramp up output when prices rise. Scrap supply is also low, contributing to what many analysts view as a structural deficit.
At the same time, geopolitical risks, inflation concerns, and softer-than-expected economic data are driving renewed interest in precious metals as hedges. Silver is increasingly valued not only for its industrial utility but also for its role as a safe-haven asset, with ETF inflows further supporting demand.
If the Fed signals a more hawkish stance or delays rate cuts, Silver's gains could lose momentum. A rebound in the U.S. dollar would also make Silver more expensive for global buyers, reducing demand. Industrial demand is closely tied to economic growth, so that any slowdown may weaken Silver's usage in manufacturing. At the same time, supply chain disruptions, mining regulations, or environmental constraints could either support prices by creating scarcity or weigh on the market if they disrupt production and increase costs.
Silver's recent strength looks to be supported by a combination of favorable industrial demand, expectations of rate cuts, and weak dollar dynamics. If it holds above the $40-$41/oz zone, there is room for further upside toward $45-$50/oz in the coming months.
However, given how much Silver has already moved, short-term pullbacks are possible. Investors should watch for signals from the Fed, major economic data (inflation, industrial production), and global demand (especially from clean-energy sectors).
Silver is showing strong momentum right now. It has broken through long-standing resistance, supported by both investment demand and industrial tailwinds. Holding current support levels will be essential for its upward trajectory. If those levels fail, volatility could increase, and Silver might retrace some gains before resuming its climb.