Markets are entering October with a mix of strong earnings, crypto consolidation, and energy uncertainty. Jabil delivered a record quarter fueled by AI demand but saw its stock cool from record highs as expectations rose even higher. Bitcoin is holding firm above $114K, supported by institutional inflows and dollar softness, though political risks and global volatility keep the outlook uncertain. Meanwhile, oil prices steadied after two days of losses, balancing tighter US inventories against the prospect of higher OPEC+ supply. Together, these themes highlight a market caught between optimism in growth sectors, shifting monetary dynamics, and lingering geopolitical pressures.
Markets are entering October with a mix of strong earnings, crypto consolidation, and energy uncertainty. Jabil delivered a record quarter fueled by AI demand but saw its stock cool from record highs as expectations rose even higher. Bitcoin is holding firm above $114K, supported by institutional inflows and dollar softness, though political risks and global volatility keep the outlook uncertain. Meanwhile, oil prices steadied after two days of losses, balancing tighter US inventories against the prospect of higher OPEC+ supply. Together, these themes highlight a market caught between optimism in growth sectors, shifting monetary dynamics, and lingering geopolitical pressures.
Jabil Rides AI Wave but Shares Cool From Peak
Jabil reported a record fiscal Q4 and raised its forward outlook, leaning into AI-data-center hardware, healthcare, and automation. Even though results were better than expected, the stock slipped from last week's record high. The stock's next move depends on the company's ability to deliver on those high expectations.
A Global Backbone for Electronics Manufacturing
Jabil is a global electronics manufacturing services (EMS) and diversified manufacturing company. It partners with major technology, industrial, and consumer firms to design, produce, and manage supply chains for components, systems, and finished electronics. From printed circuit board assembly to full systems integration and logistics, Jabil is designed to be a behind-the-scenes enabler of many of the devices and infrastructure powering modern digital life.
Jabil Rides AI Boom to Record Q4 with $8.3B Revenue
Jabil delivered a strong Q4 2025, posting $8.3B in revenue and $519M in core operating income, both above expectations. Growth was fueled by AI-driven demand in its Intelligent Infrastructure segment, which generated $3.7 billion in sales. The company also completed a $1B share buyback, returned 80% of free cash flow to investors, and closed the quarter with $5.9B in liquidity, reaffirming its investment-grade credit profile.
Jabil Expands in AI While Other Segments Slow
Jabil faces challenges, with Connected Living and Digital Commerce revenue down 14% year-over-year and auto and transport expected to fall 5% in FY 2026. Margins are being pressured by underutilized capacity in several regions, while renewables and energy infrastructure remain under strain from rates, tariffs, and policy shifts. At the same time, strong AI demand is pushing US operations to capacity, leading Jabil to build a new facility in North Carolina.
Jabil Stock Tests Support After Sharp Rally
Jabil's rally cooled after reaching a record high, with shares pulling back 6.7% and signaling a potential shift in momentum. The stock is now consolidating above its 50-day exponential moving average, with support seen at $203.56 and $197.10. On the upside, resistance sits near $224.47, followed by the $237.27 peak.
Jabil’s Outlook Hinges on AI Demand
Jabil's 2026 outlook appears realistic, with core earnings near 11 dollars per share achievable if demand for AI and automation remains steady and the product mix holds up. Stronger AI hardware orders and margin expansion could lead to results above guidance and a return toward recent highs. A slowdown in AI spending or pricing pressure, however, could weigh on growth and pull the stock back toward the mid-190 dollar range.
Bitcoin Holds Firm Above 114K
Bitcoin is trading around $114,500, steady after briefly testing above $114,700 in yesterday's session. The move reflects a consolidative phase after September's rally, which pushed BTC/USD back above $110,000 for the first time in over a month. While short-term momentum has cooled, the broader bias remains constructive, supported by macro and crypto-specific tailwinds.
Dollar Weakness Lifts Crypto, but Data Looms
On the macro side, the US dollar has shown signs of softening amid political uncertainty around a potential government shutdown, which has indirectly favored risk assets, including crypto. Yields remain elevated, but expectations that the Federal Reserve will move cautiously on rate cuts in Q4 have capped the dollar's upside. If US data this week confirms resilience in growth and inflation, it could lend the dollar renewed support, tempering Bitcoin's advance.
ETF Flows Support BTC, Derivatives Signal Caution
Within crypto markets, institutional demand has remained a key theme. The continued inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have provided a stabilizing base of demand, while on-chain data shows relatively low exchange reserves — a sign that investors are holding for the long term. However, derivatives positioning indicates some profit-taking at current levels, which could weigh on price in the near term.
Global Uncertainty Puts Bitcoin’s Hedge Role to the Test
Geopolitically, energy market volatility and lingering global growth concerns keep Bitcoin attractive as an alternative hedge. The risk backdrop remains fluid, and a surge in risk aversion could drag Bitcoin lower alongside equities before it reclaims its role as a 'digital gold' hedge.
Bitcoin Constructive, but Political Risks Cloud the Path
The broader trajectory for Bitcoin remains constructive, underpinned by institutional flows and a supportive supply backdrop. However, near-term, BTC is likely to trade in a range between $112,500 and $115,500, awaiting clarity from US macro data and developments around the shutdown. As long as Bitcoin holds above $112,500, the structure remains constructive, though volatility spikes tied to US political headlines and global risk sentiment could disrupt the picture.
Oil Steadies After Two-Day Slide
Oil prices steadied on Wednesday after two straight sessions of losses, as traders weighed talk of a bigger OPEC+ output hike next month against signs of falling US inventories. Brent December futures inched up 22 cents to $66.25 a barrel, while WTI rose 19 cents to $62.56 a barrel.
Crude Draw Supports Prices, But OPEC+ Supply Looms Large
US crude stockpiles fell by 3.67 million barrels last week, a larger drop than expected and a sign of tighter supply that lends support to prices. At the same time, OPEC+ is considering raising output further, with talk of as much as 500,000 barrels per day in November as it works to regain market share. That prospect acts as a ceiling on any sustained rally in WTI unless unexpected supply disruptions occur. Adding to the uncertainty, the US government shutdown has clouded the outlook for economic data and fuel demand, while the seasonal slowdown in consumption through the fall keeps downside risks in play.
WTI Stuck in a Range as Supply Caps Upside
WTI is holding support around 61–62 dollars, which has acted as a floor in recent sessions. On the upside, a strong move could lift prices back toward 65–66 dollars, but that zone has been tough to break. Unless momentum really builds, extra supply from OPEC+ and softer seasonal demand are likely to keep rallies in check, leaving oil trading in a choppy range for now.
WTI Outlook Balanced Between Inventory Support and OPEC+ Supply Risks
The outlook for WTI remains finely balanced. On one hand, tighter US inventories suggest support on the downside, and if draws continue alongside steady demand, prices could retest the 65-dollar area and beyond. On the other hand, the prospect of additional OPEC+ supply and signs of seasonal demand weakness temper the upside, leaving the market vulnerable to renewed pressure. Near-term direction will hinge on the upcoming EIA (Energy Information Administration), the outcome of OPEC+ policy discussions, shifts in US demand data, and any unexpected supply disruptions from geopolitics or weather events.