Global markets are juggling shifting forces across commodities, currencies, and equities. Oil prices are holding just under 65 dollars a barrel after a surprise US stockpile draw, but OPEC+ supply and seasonal demand trends temper the rally. In currencies, the euro remains firm against a soft yen, with policy divergence driving the pair. Meanwhile, Nvidia stays in the spotlight, riding the AI boom but facing questions about whether growth can keep pace with lofty valuations.
Global markets are juggling shifting forces across commodities, currencies, and equities. Oil prices are holding just under 65 dollars a barrel after a surprise US stockpile draw, but OPEC+ supply and seasonal demand trends temper the rally. In currencies, the euro remains firm against a soft yen, with policy divergence driving the pair. Meanwhile, Nvidia stays in the spotlight, riding the AI boom but facing questions about whether growth can keep pace with lofty valuations.
Crude Gets a Boost from Stockpile Drop
Crude Oil is easing after a strong mid-week pop. As of this morning, front-month WTI trades near $64.7/bbl, off slightly after touching an 18-day high on Wednesday. The pullback mirrors some profit-taking and month-end position squaring across risk assets.
US crude oil inventories fell by 9.3 million barrels last week, a much larger draw than expected. The sharp drop signals tighter supply conditions and provides stronger support for WTI prices.
OPEC+ has been rolling back its earlier production cuts and plans to pump an extra 137,000 barrels per day in October. This steady increase adds more supply to the market, which limits how high prices can climb—unless unexpected outages tighten things up.
The IEA (International Energy Agency) expects global oil demand to grow by about 700,000 barrels per day in 2025. But it also notes that demand usually drops by around 1 million barrels per day after the summer peak, while refinery activity falls by about 3.5 million barrels per day from August to October. These seasonal slowdowns could put some pressure on prices, making the outlook for the fourth quarter more balanced.
US oil recently pushed back above its 50-day average with strong momentum but stalled around the $64–65 zone, which also marks an 18-day high. If prices can close above that area, they could climb toward $66.5–69. Otherwise, trading is likely to stay choppy. On the downside, support sits around $64, then $61 8.
The market outlook is cautiously positive as US oil inventories remain below average and recent reports show draws, but any rally could be capped by extra OPEC+ supply and weaker seasonal demand. The next EIA report on October 1 will be key: another draw could push WTI toward $66–68, while a surprise build or signs of softer fuel demand could send prices back toward $62–63. Developments around OPEC+ policy and any disruptions in flows will also play an important role.
Euro Up, Yen Down — Trend Still Alive
EUR/JPY is trading near the upper end of its recent range, supported by firm euro demand and a still-weak yen backdrop. The pair has been consolidating after last week's rally, with market sentiment tilted toward further euro strength. Traders remain focused on eurozone inflation dynamics, while the Bank of Japan's cautious stance continues to weigh on the yen.
The ifo Business Climate Index slipped to 87.7 in September from 88.9 in August, showing that companies are turning more cautious about both current conditions and expectations. This weakens the narrative of resilience in the eurozone's largest economy and raises concerns that growth momentum could fade, which in turn limits the euro's upside.
The ECB has emphasized a cautious, data-dependent stance. Softer German sentiment strengthens the case for patience, as policymakers may hesitate to commit to easing while inflation remains sticky but growth risks build. This mix provides some support for the euro by reducing the urgency for cuts, yet it also caps enthusiasm for further gains.
In Japan, the central bank has shown little appetite for rapid normalization. Yields remain depressed — Japan's 10-year is about 1.65 % versus Germany's ~2.75 % — and the wide differential continues to support carry trades. As long as the BoJ holds its ground, the yen struggles to attract buyers, leaving EUR/JPY propped up despite weaker European data.
The yen's safe-haven role means that a sudden deterioration in global risk appetite could quickly reverse the pair's fortunes. At present, equity markets remain resilient, keeping yen demand muted, but the fragile euro makes EUR/JPY more sensitive to shocks than earlier in the summer.
Support sits at the ECB reference level of 174.5, with a break lower exposing 173.493. Resistance remains at 175.1, and a decisive move higher could open the way toward 176.1. Momentum indicators show stretched conditions, suggesting that while the trend remains bullish, upside progress may slow.
The outlook for EUR/JPY leans bullish as long as the BOJ remains behind the curve and the ECB maintains its restrictive stance. Traders should monitor eurozone inflation and any hints of BOJ intervention, as these remain the main catalysts. Unless Japan signals a firmer policy shift, dips are likely to attract buying interest.
Nvidia Riding the AI Wave or Topping Out
Nvidia (NVDA) continues making headlines amid the AI boom. On September 24, 2025, the stock traded between $174.40 (low) and $178.62 (high), closing at $174.59. Investors are watching if Nvidia can deliver growth that's worthy of today's prices.
Nvidia produces high-end graphics processors (GPUs) and AI chips used in data centers, gaming, cloud computing, and autonomous systems. Because it's central to AI infrastructure, every big AI push depends on Nvidia's hardware.
That's why investors see Nvidia as one of the most important companies powering today's tech revolution.
In its latest quarter (Q2 FY 2026), Nvidia posted $46.7 billion in revenue, up about 56% year-over-year. Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share came in at $1.05, with gross margins around 72.7%. Given the closing price of $174.59, the stock trades at a forward multiple of many times that EPS — meaning investors are paying for strong expected growth ahead.
Growth is fueled by surging demand for AI compute, expansion of its Blackwell architecture, and momentum in data center spending. Nvidia also benefits from share buybacks and strong cash flows. On the flip side, it faces challenges from export restrictions (especially relating to China), stiff competition (AMD and custom AI chip makers), and possible cooling in tech budgets. Margins may also face pressure if costs rise.
Nvidia is still at the center of the AI boom, but much of that excitement is already reflected in its price. On September 24, the stock moved between $175.40 and $179.78, closing at $176.97. Future gains will depend on whether Nvidia can keep growing at a rapid pace. For now, it delivers innovation and momentum, but investors should keep an eye on its high valuation and broader economic risks.