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Silver Forecast & Price Predictions March 2024, 2025 and Beyond: $30 in the next months?

Silver Price Forecast 2024
Cristian Cochintu
Cristian Cochintu
15 December 2023

We look at the factors affecting the silver market and where should investors expect the market to move next, including some of the latest silver forecasts & price predictions from analysts.

Silver spot prices rose 20% in Q4 2024, testing the 2023 highs before falling back to $23, amid the gold price retracement following the record highs on December 4, as a stronger-than-forecasted jobs report dampened hopes for rate cuts by the Fed in the first quarter of 2024.  

Silver prices have found solid support above $20/oz but have struggled to move higher despite limited output from miners and growing demand for green technologies.

Silver prices will benefit from the growing demand for EVs and solar panels in 2024 and could also get a boost from a potential rebound in industrial demand, according to the latest Silver forecasts and price predictions from metals strategists. 

Silver Forecast & Price Prediction – Summary   

  • Silver price forecast today: Silver prices could decrease in the coming days towards the 21.00 support level and bounce back towards the 25.00 resistance level. A break is forecasted at the beginning of the year, with an upside continuation more likely to occur according to the latest silver forecasts from market leaders. 
  • Silver price prediction 2024: Silver prices are forecasted to rise in 2024 from this year's average on bets that global central banks would start monetary policy easing and after the Middle East conflict provided a boost to safe-haven assets. The forecast silver median prices for 2024 are around $24.85 per ounce, with highs at $34,70.   
  • Silver price prediction for the next 5 years and beyond: Silver rate has been heavily influenced by weak industrial production and a lack of investor interest globally. However, if the continued focus on the energy transition is accompanied by stronger global growth, silver prices should push higher. While some rating agencies forecast Silver price to reach $48 by mid-2025 and $70 by 2030, the World Bank expects the metal to trade between $20 and $25 in the next 5 years.        

With CAPEX.com you can trade Silver futures through CFDs if you want to speculate on price movements or invest in silver mining stocks and ETFs.   

  

Silver Forecast 2024 - Fundamental Outlook: Growing demand for EVs and solar panels 

Silver’s outlook in the coming few months depends heavily upon two factors: 

Investors are keeping an eye on the rate and pace of the US Federal Reserve and other central banks’ interest rate hikes in the coming months, due to how they are likely to affect precious metals and other commodities. 

The progress of the Middle East and Russian conflicts is also a key factor for metal prices, as currently, silver is also seeing some safe-haven demand, as the crisis rages on. This is also likely to continue due to expectations of slowing global economic growth this year, as well as a mild recession. 

It is important to understand that Silver serves two primary functions. It’s a precious metal with a monetary role and an industrial metal with numerous and growing applications. It’s also in jewelry and silverware and other objects, of course, but predicting the price comes mostly from these two functions… 

When assessing the state of the silver market, analysts focus on for key areas: mine supply, traditional industrial demand, investment demand and green demand.

Mine supply

Like the base metals, prices of the white metal tend to be driven by market balances, because in contrast to gold, a much larger share of silver production is consumed, rather than put into storage,

According to Bank of America, mining supply remains well below all-time highs, and the latest guidance issued by the largest silver producers indicates that output will not return to those levels any time soon.

The data suggests supply will remain subdued in 2024. “This is also linked to CAPEX discipline in recent years,” they said. “In the end, the message is always the same: no investment, no production.”

In terms of supply, Peter Krauth of Silver Stock Investor said that issues in top producers Mexico and Peru will put a dent in output in 2024: "The world's two largest silver-supplying countries are seeing multi-year lows in supply, and the prospects for new silver mines to come on stream — to be discovered, approved, financed, built and come onstream — we're talking 10 to 15 years these days". 

Industrial Demand 

Because of silver’s chemical composition, it is one of the best electrical and thermal conductors of all metals. It also has growing use in the medical field, due to its antibacterial properties. 

In fact, silver has so many industrial uses that the Silver Institute calls it “the indispensable metal.” 

The industrial buying is often linked to the strength of economic growth, and silver tends to outperform gold when industrial activity accelerates.

According to the researchers, "Covid's economic disruptions have kept traditional industrial users of silver from using it as much, and this trend is expected to continue through 2023." In fact, silver imports from several nations remain sadly low, with US and Japanese silver purchases generally remaining near the lower end of historical ranges. Similar circumstances exist in China, which has continued to be a minor net exporter of silver in recent years.

According to the Bank of America, India has been the bright spot in the world market for silver demand in 2023, buying record amounts of the precious metal over the summer. This showed, among other things, pent-up demand, particularly for jewellery after COVID, which was then made worse by restocking along the whole supply chain. Nevertheless, imports have recently resumed their longer-term ranges.

Green Demand

The green tech sector is becoming increasingly important for the silver market, with EV penetration rates projected to rise above 40% by 2030, while the white metal is heavily used in solar applications, according to the latest industry research. 

Electric vehicles use almost twice as much silver as internal combustion engines, while solar panels contain silver, and their installation is growing. 5G/mobile phone technology uses silver. And it’s clear that “greening” the infrastructure is a government priority. 

While this is supportive of silver offtake and backs the latest silver forecasts and price predictions, there are caveats because panel manufacturers have been reducing the silver content in panels. This may reverse in the next generation of photovoltaics, and at the same time as solar panels have become more efficient, fewer installations are necessary.

"Silver might see its biggest deficit in over a decade as mining production cannot keep up with demand. The solar industry has seen surging demand," Oanda's analysts said in their latest silver forecast 2024. 

Investment Demand 

Investment demand for silver fluctuates each year, sometimes wildly. And that’s why it has the biggest impact on the silver price. 

ETFs with physical backing have facilitated consumer access to the silver market. According to Bank of America, these vehicles contain 748 million ounces of assets, or almost 88% of the metal stored in LBMA facilities.

The experts pointed out that marginal price drivers have frequently been investors. However, over the last ten years, trust in white metal has suffered as optimistic claims about 'promising' uses, such as bandages for medical conditions, have not really come to pass. Nevertheless, production reductions and rising demand for solar and electric vehicles have balanced the silver market, supporting prices even in the absence of non-commercial demand. 

However, TD Securities sees solid potential for silver in 2024 as the Federal Reserve starts to cut rates as recession conditions begin to bite. They forecast silver will set its sights towards $26/oz in the final days of 2023. Despite the near-term challenges, the firm forecast silver's long-term potential remains bullish. They added that there isn't enough mine supply for silver to meet the long-term demand trends. 

 

Silver Price Forecast 2024 - Technical Outlook: Key ceiling is at $25.50-$26.00 

The rally in the past year or so has been substantial, but two developments suggest the rally is no more than corrective (correction of the 2021-2022 slide). Firstly, silver remains well under stiff resistance on a declining trendline since 2020, reinforcing the downtrend. Secondly, the failure, at least so far, to clear the March 2022  and August 2022 peaks of 26.00-27.00 - the inability to create a higher high reaffirms the lower-high-lower-low structure since 2021 and supports the bearish silver price predictions for 2024. 

Silver Price Forecast 2024 - Technical Outlook
Source: CAPEX WebTrader

However, it looks like a bullish reversal setup is testing the edges, with a rounded pattern that is close to being resolved. If the 21.00-22.00 support levels hold, and the price bounces back toward the upper band of the channel, a breakout becomes more likely.

On the downside, a break below the 21.00-22.00 levels could generate more selling pressure towards the beginning of 2024. In such a bearish scenario, silver could be the lowest price of the last three years.  

The most likely silver forecast is a consolidation within the 21.00-25.00 range at the beginning of 2024 before a breakout occurs.

Stay tuned with our next silver forecast and price prediction updates for more technical and fundamental analysis as well as market developments, including the key industrial and green demand final 2023 data. 

Silver Forecast and Price Predictions 2024

Citigroup forecast silver could hit $30 per ounce highs over the second half of 2023 to the second half of 2024, with imminent support seen from buyers eyeing value in the metal after its sharpest price slide in a month (May) since February,

They predict silver would rally in anticipation of the fall in U.S. interest rates and real yields that will likely accompany an anticipated rollover in U.S. growth in Q4’23 or early 2024. This should weigh on the dollar, with economists expecting U.S. rates and the dollar to weaken further (DXY to 96).

Economists expect China to continue to gradually recover and any associated rebound in Emerging Markets growth sentiment could be an incremental tailwind for silver. They forecast silver demand in China demand could recover in 2H 23 following further easing measures by the People's Bank of China.

India is considered another promising market, which may continue destocking amid higher prices in 2023.

The World Bank commodity price index is expected to fall 4 percent in 2024, following a decline of over 20% in 2023.  In line with this, silver prices are forecast to decline by 4% in 2024.

Bank of America was more bullish, expecting the precious metal to rise to US$23 in 2023. Forecast Silver prices will see steady support from EV, solar in 2024, and could and could also get a boost from a potential rebound in industrial demand.

Investingheaven.com updated its silver forecast and price prediction: "The price of silver will move to our first bullish target in 2024 which is $34.70". They predict silver to hit $48 either by mid-2024 or mid-2025. Silver is forecasted to be higher in 2024 because the topping pattern in Yields is confirmed. The US Dollar has already confirmed its inability to move much higher.

With the end of the year approaching, JP Morgan experts are putting out their forecasts for 2024 which highlight gold and silver as their top metals for the year. The bank is forecasting silver to break the $30 mark any time soon.

While analysts are typically cautious in issuing long-term forecasts for commodities, algorithm-based forecasting services regularly provide price outlooks for more extended periods. 

According to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts' expectations, “silver is forecasted to trade at $22.50 per troy ounce by the end of this quarter”. The website forecasted silver to trade at $21.15 in 12 months’ time, or by March 2024.  

Silver Forecast and Price Predictions 2024
Source: Trading Economics

Gov Capital, another algorithm-based forecasting service, issued a silver price prediction stating that the metal would close out 2023 at a potential average of $24.489. The platform sees silver rising to an average of $36.581 by the end of December 2024, $53.840 by the end of 2025, and $76.561 by December 2026. 

Wallet Investor’s silver price forecast for 2023 was neutral. The website saw the precious metal closing in 2023 at the $24.50 mark. The platform’s silver price forecast for 20254 saw silver trading within the 23.00-25.00 range, while its silver price forecast for the next 5 years has the commodity breaching the $27 price point.. 

In his book, “The Great Silver Bull,” Peter Krauth derived a valuation of $300 silver through technical analysis. Krauth has a model that forecasts that gold’s price will rise to $5,000 by 2030, which would drag silver’s price up to $300. This is due to gold’s use as an inflation hedge. 

“My thesis is that if you look at what’s happening with inflation, and if you look at how other assets are hurting,” he said. 

Here are some other 2023 Silver forecasts we have gathered from numerous analysts both inside and outside of the silver industry. 

Citigroup

“We think recent price weakness offers a strong dip-buying opportunity, reiterating our call for $30/oz silver over the next 6-12 months as U.S. growth rolls over, even if emerging markets growth stagnates.”

David Morgan

“Silver tends to outperform 3:1 in bull markets. Once silver eclipses $30-50, the next move could soar to $70-$100.”

OANDA

“A recession could put a damper on industrial demand but not enough to make silver a recessionary casualty. It is going to do well next year, just like gold.”

Metals Focus

“Industrial demand for silver was at a record in 2022, reaching 539 million ounces. With so many countries focused on energy security, silver saw new demand come from solar panel installations, which hit new highs this year. The automotive sector also contributed to additional demand, particularly the electrification of vehicles. The average silver content per vehicle is increasing.

Commerzbank

“Silver should benefit from the end of the Fed's interest rate hikes and the speculation on interest rate cuts that will start thereafter. The expected economic recovery following the end of the recession should additionally benefit silver as a precious metal with a high industrial use. With the easing of corona restrictions in China, silver demand should receive a further boost, as China is the largest consumer of silver.”

Investing Haven

“Silver will move higher in 2023 because we expect the top in the U.S. Dollar to be confirmed. Moreover, our 2023 silver price forecast is supported by leading indicators like inflation expectations and the silver CoT report (silver futures market positions). Once silver trades near $36 it will be a matter of time until it attacks ATHs. We also tip silver as the precious metal to buy for 2023.” 

Bank of America

 "While upside may be limited near-term, mine supply is constrained, so a rebound of commercial purchases is set to ultimately push prices higher. [Supply] should also be supported by rising demand from solar panel and electric vehicle manufacturers, as the global community focuses on tackling climate change.” 

Avi Gilburt

“Long-term, I'm looking for silver to hit $50, but that might take a few years. Prices could easily double in 2023 and the first half of 2024.”

Wells Fargo

“Commodities have been in a supercycle since 2020, with silver looking to play a special role, especially considering how cheap it is relative to other commodities. When you are in a supercycle, you often find high-beta plays do better. Between 1999-2011, silver did much better than gold.”

You can see that while many are moderate to strongly bullish, there is some disparity among the silver price predictions for 2024. 

When considering silver price predictions, it’s important to remember that high market volatility makes it difficult to give long-term estimates. As such, analysts and algorithm-based platforms can and do get their predictions wrong. 

Always do your own research before making an investment decision. And never trade or invest more than you can afford to lose. 

Leading indicators supporting the silver forecast & price predictions

Lots of things can impact the silver price—the economy, the US dollar, and inflation expectations, among others—but historically these are the most influential drivers to look at when forecasting the price of silver. 

  • The price of gold (positively correlated to silver).
  • The Euro (inversely correlated to the USD).
  • Interest rate expectations (inversely correlated to silver).
  • The futures market positioning (CoT).

Experts believe that all leading indicators will turn bullish for 2024 and support the optimistic silver forecast and price predictions, the only one that needs confirmation is 10-Year-Yields: if prices of Treasuries move a little higher, Yields a little lower, it will open the door for silver to finally take off. 

Gold Price & Gold/Silver Ratio 

Gold is forecasted to eventually move higher in 2024. We gave much more detail about the expected path of gold in 2024 in our gold forecast. 

The gold/silver ratio is simply the price of gold divided by the price of silver. Since both are considered monetary metals, they usually move together—which can give us clues when the ratio gets stretched in one direction or the other. 

The higher the ratio the more undervalued silver tends to be relative to gold; the lower the ratio the more overvalued silver is to gold. 

And when readings get stretched, they tend to correct themselves, as this chart shows… notice the ratio roughly corresponds to the highs and lows in precious metals cycles. 

Gold Silver Ratio 2024
Source: GoldSilver.com

The historical evidence suggests that the gold-to-silver ratio entering the 80 to 100x range may act as a signal for a significant rally in the price of silver. At this very point in time, the gold-to-silver ratio chart has been above 80x since early 2022.  

The gold-to-silver ratio is not a timing indicator, it is a stretch indicator. It suggests that silver is extremely undervalued relative to gold, it suggests that it’s a matter of time until spot silver starts reacting to the upside or gold to the downside. 

GoldSilver.com also expects to see the gold/silver ratio drop below 20. “The day that people rush back to gold and silver as monetary assets is the day you’ll see the ratio revert back to its 1980 low of 14, giving you enormous leverage to gold.” 

The gold/silver ratio suggests the silver price is likely to rise in 2024 according to market watchers and supports the bullish silver price predictions for the next 5 years.. 

 

Interest Rates Expectations

Silver is both an investment and is consumed in the manufacture of jewelry, electronics, and electric vehicles, as well as solar panels which have been gaining traction amid the global green energy transition.

However, silver prices, at $23-25 per troy ounce, are down a few percent in 2023 as elevated global interest rates discourage investment in precious metals, which do not offer interest.  

Once the peak of Fed tightening and other major central banks (EU, UK) are confidently in place, silver should become attractive again from the investment perspective.

Eur/Usd 

Precious metals need a rising Euro (falling or flat USD) in order to shine. EUR/USD should continue moving higher in 2023, according to market strategists, and support the precious metals. We gave much more detail about the expected path of EurUsd in our Euro to Dollar forecast for 2024

According to FX strategiests, EUR/USD is fairly valued down at these lowly levels. In other words, there is not the kind of extreme undervaluation that has supported EUR/USD at these levels in the past. This really does build the case that if there is to be a EUR/USD rally, it will have to be driven by the dollar leg. Away from the Fed easing story there is also the risk of US fiscal deterioration and de-dollarisation – perhaps both slow-burn stories.  

The EUR/USD is forecasted to advance as high as 1.15 during 2024.

EurUsd Forecast & Price Predictions 2024Pound forecast & Price Predictions 2024Turkish Lira forecast & Price Predictions 2024
USD to INR Forecast 2024AED to INR Forecast 2024SAR to INR Forecast 2024

Futures market (CoT) 

This is another leading indicator for silver. The way to think of this leading indicator for silver is a stretch indicator: 

When net positions in the futures market of commercials and non-commercials are stretched it indicates that the price is going to take a turn. 

This is not a timing indicator, we need the silver price chart to determine the timing of a turning point. 

Silver_Will_Decrease_In_Next_Days.png

Silver’s COT report clearly shows that is has very bullish readings. What this really means is that the outlook for price is bullish because the most important influencing factor of price (COMEX positioning) is bullish.   

Ted Butler, an expert in reading the CoT report in silver said: The silver CoT report remains unusually bullish, especially given the surge in price during October and November 2023. While a pullback is very likely, the more important thing is that the CoT as a stretch indicator does not indicate that the silver price rally is stretched, on the contrary. 

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Silver Price History 

The silver markets have climbed from the $12 per ounce lows reached at the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, as investors have bought physical precious metals and financial instruments as safe-haven assets during ongoing economic uncertainty. 

The silver price reached a $28 high in August 2020 and ended the year around the $22 mark. 

The price then jumped to an eight-year high in February 2021, briefly touching the $30 per ounce psychological level, as the market attracted the attention of retail investors. 

In addition to investor sentiment, the silver price trend has found support from its growing use in industrial settings, which account for roughly half the metal’s annual demand. 

Physical silver demand climbed to a record high in 2021, led by an all-time high in industrial applications – silver is the best conductor of electricity, so is often used in high-end applications. 

The silver spot price had fallen from $24 to $23 per ounce since the start of the year, as central banks combatted inflation by rapidly raising interest rates. Higher interest rates tend to be bearish for precious metals, as investors opt for interest-bearing savings accounts and other assets that generate guaranteed returns. 

Silver traded up from $22.30 per ounce in late January to $26.90 per ounce in early March, a peak so far this year, as the market responded to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. But while the market traded between $24 to $26 until mid-April, it began to sell off sharply later in the month as the dollar strengthened. 

The price bounced back to $21.867 in the following two days but then went on the decline, closely following the trajectory of the gold price. 

The metal attempted to rebound in late July, trading above the $20 mark for several weeks, before shedding close to $2 from its value in 10 days on the back of further interest rate hike expectations – in the current climate, the Fed’s pledge to curb inflation is leading investors to favour the dollar instead of non-interest-bearing bullion assets. 

November saw the Fed make its fourth consecutive 75bps rate hike, taking its short-term borrowing rate to a target range of 3.75%-4% – the highest level since January 2008 – as it continues its mission to return the US economy to 2% inflation. 

The precious metal saw an outstanding few weeks towards the end of 2022, with a weekly gain of about 4.7% and a monthly gain of about 14.4%. This has largely been due to speculation about China loosening its current zero-Covid policy, even though official statements have denied this so far. 

The continuous futures contract for silver ended 2022 at $23.97 per ounce, up 3.7%.  

The price advanced up to $26 in the first half of 2023 amid geopolitical risks, before pulling back to the $23 levels

Silver prices and precious metals in general have been weighed by elevated real yields amid the growing view that interest rates will remain higher for longer given stubbornly high inflation. Rising nominal interest rates coupled with easing price pressures/inflation expectations have pushed up real rates, raising the opportunity cost of holding the zero-yielding yellow metal. 

History of Silver 

Evidence of the first silver mines dates to 3000 B.C. in Anatolia, a site in modern-day Turkey. Most of the silver mining in that part of the world shifted east to Greece by 1200 B.C., as that civilization expanded. In 100 A.D., Spanish silver mines fed the Roman Empire's economy. 

Silver's popularity increased in the years 1000 to 1500, thanks to improved technology, more mines, and better production techniques. The quest for silver and other precious metals gave rise to Spanish fleets that sailed all over the world, seeking wealth and new lands to conquer. It was a vital part of the mercantile system. 

Silver production in the United States peaked in the 1870s with the Comstock Lode in Nevada, and by the end of the 19th century, humans produced more than 120 million troy ounces every year. One of the most iconic ways humans used silver was as a form of currency. 

In the early 1960s, supplies of silver in the United States dwindled to all-time lows. Therefore, the U.S. government decided to stop using silver in its coins after 1964. Any American dimes, quarters, half dollars, or dollar coins with a date of 1964 or earlier contain 90% silver. If the price of silver is $20 per ounce, these silver coins are worth approximately 14 times their face value in the precious metal content alone. A silver dime is worth $1.40, whereas a silver dollar is worth $14 at a $20-per-ounce price. 

Free resources 

Before you start investing and trading in Silver, you should consider using the educational resources we offer like CAPEX Academy or a demo trading account. CAPEX Academy has lots of free trading courses for you to choose from, and they all tackle a different financial concept or process – like the basics of analyses – to help you to become a better trader or make more-informed investment decisions. 

Our demo account is a suitable place for you to learn more about leveraged trading, and you’ll be able to get an intimate understanding of how trading and investing work – as well as what it’s like to trade with leverage – before risking real capital. For this reason, a demo account with us is a great tool for stock investors who are looking to make a transition to leveraged trading. 

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Cristian Cochintu
Cristian Cochintu
financial_writer

Cristian Cochintu writes about trading and investing for CAPEX.com. Cristian has more than 15 years of brokerage, freelance, and in-house experience writing for financial institutions and coaching financial writers.