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Volatility takes centre stage - Market Overview

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Miguel A. Rodriguez
Miguel A. Rodriguez
05 November 2022
Yesterday, volatility was the protagonist in a market dominated by fears surrounding the delta variant of the coronavirus, plus Fed's announcement regarding adjustments to monetary policies.

VIX, the benchmark for the S&P500 index, experienced a notable rise, reaching the highest levels in a month.

Another significant influence in the markets was Goldman Sachs’ report, which cut its outlook on US GDP for the third quarter to 5.5% from 8.5% previously, citing delta’s growing impact.

The most worrying part of this pessimistic forecast might come when the market has already weighed in Fed's newest monetary policies as early as the last quarter of this year.

As we learned yesterday from Fed’s minutes, most of the committee members believe the US economy is evolving at a healthy enough pace to justify reducing the monthly bond purchases by $120 billion.

Impact on stocks, commodities, forex

European equities suffered falls, while US stocks experienced abrupt movements up and down. After starting the trading day with large drops, North American equities rebounded at the end of the session, primarily driven by stocks such as Cisco and Nvidia, which released better-than-expected earnings results.

But the biggest move was in the commodity and forex markets. Generalized falls were seen in commodities due to worsening expectations of global demand, which dragged oil and copper down. The latter broke the neckline of a broad Head and Shoulders pattern, potentially anticipating further falls. This brought with it the collapse of commodity-correlated currencies such as the Australian Dollar and the Canadian Dollar.

The CAD/JPY pair, pressed by the Canadian Dollar’s weakness and the yen’s strength, was about to pierce the neckline of a Head and Shoulders pattern. If confirmed with a daily close below the 85.50 zone, it would technically anticipate a theoretical projection to levels around 80.00.

Sources: Bloomberg, reuters.com.

This information/research prepared by Miguel A. Rodriguez does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in part or in whole, certifies that the views about the companies and their securities expressed in this report accurately reflect his/her personal views and consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk.The research provided does not constitute the views of KW Investments Ltd nor is it an invitation to invest with KW Investments Ltd. The research analyst also certifies that no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be, directly, or indirectly, related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.The research analyst in not employed by KW Investments Ltd. You are encouraged to seek advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit that conforms to your specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular financial needs before making a commitment to invest. The laws of the Republic of Seychelles shall govern any claim relating to or arising from the contents of the information/ research provided. 

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Miguel A. Rodriguez
Miguel A. Rodriguez
Financial Writer

Miguel worked for major financial institutions such as Banco Santander, and Banco Central-Hispano. He is a published author of currency trading books.