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China’s recent economic activity might spark a global recovery

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Miguel A. Rodriguez
Miguel A. Rodriguez
02 March 2023

China might lead the way to a global economic recovery, as Europe’s economic response to last month’s reports show signs of improvement. The US is still expecting important economic data to be released.

European stock markets opened higher on Wednesday, bolstered by expectations that China's important manufacturing sector will lead the global economic rebound.

In February, China's manufacturing activity grew at the quickest rate in more than a decade, as the recovery of the world's second-largest economy gathered speed following the loosening of stringent COVID-19 restrictions.

Furthermore, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index increased to 52,6 from 50. This number suggests that China's economy may already be expanding and, as the manufacturing powerhouse is a significant export market for Europe, its recent data has lifted European indices and the euro.

Related article: Economic Indicators 

German CPI numbers were also announced yesterday; they remained high with little hint of a reversal, pushing German bond rates to 12-year highs. The Bund also jumped up to 2.71 percent.

The European Central Bank communicated through the members of the Governing Council: it is willing to continue increasing interest rates over 3.5%, which has pushed the EUR/USD exchange rate to levels near 1.0700.

Later, the ISM manufacturing data for the United States were announced. Although the numbers stayed low in February at 47.7, its price component, the ISM manufacturing prices, soared to 51.3 from 44.2. As a result, the yield on the 10-year U.S. bond rose to 4% as market anxiety soared due to inflation's intransigence. 

Related article: Indices

Yesterday, the Wall Street indexes remained directionless with repeated ups and downs. As a result, fears of sustained inflation and interest rates that will remain elevated were not put down.

In this regard, the statistics that will have the greatest impact on the markets will be non-farm payrolls and JOLTs job offers, both of which will be announced next Wednesday. Any evidence of weakness in the US labor market could be sufficient to support risk assets, as this would limit the Fed's rate hikes.

Furthermore, a Wall Street Journal report published yesterday states that the number of job openings has already decreased significantly. In addition, it stipulates that the current situation should be reflected in the publishing of February.

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters

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Miguel A. Rodriguez
Miguel A. Rodriguez
financial_writer

Miguel worked for major financial institutions such as Banco Santander, and Banco Central-Hispano. He is a published author of currency trading books.