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Ethereum Price Prediction: Will ETH surpass $4,000 in 2024?

Ethereum price prediction 2024
Cristian Cochintu
Cristian Cochintu
17 May 2024

The Ethereum forecast is less optimistic than it was at the beginning of the year, with the potential delay in approving a spot Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF) by SEC. Here are the latest Ethereum forecast and price predictions for 2024 and beyond.

Ethereum (ETH/USD) price has experienced a tumultuous journey throughout the second quarter of 2024, characterized by remarkable surges and retracements. After gaining 60% in Q1 and testing the $4,000 levels, the beginning of Q2 brought a correction towards the $3,000 levels.

The much-anticipated Bitcoin halving, the Shapella upgrade followed by the Dencun upgrade in March, and expectations of Fed interest rate cuts boosted the crypto market during the end of 2023 beginning of 2024. However, with enthusiasm dissipating and Ethereum ETFs not coming very soon, ETH/USD is trading at a key juncture. 

Will Ethereum price survive a retest of support at $3,000 in April after nearly reaching its historical all-time high in March? Let’s dig deep through this updated Ethereum Forecast and Price Prediction guide to see what 2024 holds for ETH and whether will it continue to gain momentum in the years to come. 

Ethereum Forecast & Price Predictions - Key Takeaways

  • Ethereum price prediction today: the actual downward movement tested the prevailing uptrend and 50% Fibonacci retracement indicating the pattern might be solved to the upside by the end of Q2.  
  • Ethereum price prediction 2024: while average consensus range from a conservative estimate of $2,500 to a striking $4,000 during the year, some still forecast that the expectations for an ETF approval and updates are already included in the price.  
  • Ethereum price prediction 2025-2030: Several veteran analysts and market experts are quite bullish on Ethereum and maintain a positive long-term outlook, forecasting Ethereum to touch even $40,000 by the year 2030. 

With CAPEX.com you can trade CFDs on ETH/USD and ETH/EUR or buy shares in the first Bitcoin ETF. 

Ethereum Forecast - Fundamental Overview

ETH’s Q1 momentum in 2024 promised continued growth, buoyed by historical trends and positive analyst outlooks. Nonetheless, regulatory uncertainties, notably surrounding the approval of an Ethereum ETF, posed obstacles to its upward trajectory. 

2024 was expected to kick off the bull run that the crypto market has been waiting for since June 2022. Along with the rest of the market, Ethereum was forecasted to witness bullishness owing to one single factor – the recent approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs. As Bitcoin is forecasted to target all-time highs during 2024 amid the potential interest from institutional investors, Ethereum was forecasted to fulfil its role as the "Silver to BTC's Gold" and likely push other altcoins to rally as well.

Asset managers are already keeping an eye on Ethereum spot ETFs, and this clearance will set a precedent for them as well. Three other investors have already applied for a spot Ethereum ETF: VanEck, ARK Invest, and BlackRock. To become a spot ETF, Grayscale also applied to convert its Ethereum Trust (ETHE).

However, delays or regulatory obstacles in this process resulted in market turbulence and uncertainty. Contributing to the array of speculations are differing viewpoints from professionals in the industry. While at the beginning of the year there was a 70% likelihood of an Ether ETF approval in May, now there is a more negative stance, estimating the chances at only 25%. Doubts are rooted in the absence of communication from the SEC, indicating a grim prospect for the approval procedure.

The danger the SEC poses to Ether prices is twofold:  

  • The commission continues to angle to get ETH tokens classified as securities.  
  • In addition, the regulator may delay approving an Ethereum ETF for Wall Street investors.

That’s a big deal because VanEck thinks Ethereum ETFs could outpace Bitcoin funds once approved.

Meanwhile, the SEC is “waging an energetic legal campaign to classify Ethereum, the second-most popular cryptocurrency, as a security,” according to the latest crypto news.

The commission has issued subpoenas to a number of companies to probe their dealings with the Ethereum Foundation, kicking up speculation that the SEC will sue to get ETH tokens labelled a security.

Developments related to this possibility represent an ongoing risk to long positions in Ethereum and a headwind for the asset’s prices, leading to less bullish revisions of the Ethereum forecasts and price predictions for 2024.

Fundamental Ethereum Forecast: ETH price to witness growth from spot Bitcoin ETF approval?

2024 is expected to kick off the bull run that the crypto market has been waiting for since June 2022. Along with the rest of the market, Ethereum is forecasted to witness bullishness owing to one single factor – the recent approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs. As Bitcoin is forecasted to target all-time highs during 2024 amid the potential interest from institutional investors, Ethereum is forecasted to fulfill its role as the "Silver to BTC's Gold" and likely push other altcoins to rally as well.

Asset managers are already keeping an eye on Ethereum spot ETFs, and this clearance will set a precedent for them as well. Three other investors have already applied for a spot Ethereum ETF: VanEck, ARK Invest, and BlackRock. To become a spot ETF, Grayscale also applied to convert its Ethereum Trust (ETHE).

Eric Balchunas, an ETF analyst at Bloomberg, estimates that these applications have a good chance of being approved because they resemble Bitcoin ETFs in terms of structure and appearance. Nonetheless, investors will have time before they can obtain the investment goods because their final deadline is set between May and August 2024. This seems to be one of the driving factors for the bullish Ethereum price predictions for Q2 2024.

The Surge after the Merge

Ethereum's founder Vitalik Buterin stated that the chain is only 55% complete and has a long way to go. The next four stages after the Merge (a network update to transition Ethereum from proof of work (PoW) to a proof-of-stake (PoS) consensus mechanism), as noted by Buterin, will be The Surge, the Verge, the Purge, and the Splurge. The first of these four – The Surge – will introduce sharding on Ethereum.

Sharding is a key scalability solution for Ethereum that aims to improve the network's capacity to process transactions and execute smart contracts. This is done by splitting the network into smaller, more manageable chains called shards.

These shards are individual components of the Ethereum network itself. Each shard operates as an independent blockchain with its own set of smart contracts. These chains can process transactions and execute smart contracts independently, reducing congestion on the Ethereum mainnet.

The main goals of Ethereum developers with the sharding update are as follows:

Scalability

The Ethereum network's processing power and transaction throughput are severely constrained as it expands. By introducing a parallel processing method, sharding makes it possible to process several transactions and smart contracts at once across various shards.

Crosslinking

References to one shard's state included in another shard's block serve as a means of communication between shards. Consistency and integrity are preserved throughout the Ethereum network thanks to cross-linking.

Increased opportunities for validators  

Validators participate in the consensus process by proposing and validating blocks on individual shards. Validators are chosen to propose blocks based on the amount of cryptocurrency they lock up as collateral in the Ethereum 2.0 Proof-of-Stake system.

The beacon chain will be essential in the sharding update as well. The initial Ethereum 2.0 update, known as the beacon chain, is a distinct blockchain that serves as a network coordinator and consensus algorithm (Proof-of-Stake) manager. The shards' communication will be coordinated via this chain.

With the Dencun improvement, sharding was put into practice. The update was implemented in March 2024 and introduced proto-danksharding to the network. Proto-danksharding, an essential component of the Surge, serves as the framework for upcoming scalability enhancements, such as danksharding.

Danksharding divides the ETH blockchain into smaller and more manageable parts called, “blobs”. The aim is to increase the capacity of the network and reduce transaction fees.  

Proto-Danksharding, also known as EIP-4844, is a proposed feature in the upgrade that builds upon the notion of danksharding. By creating added space for storing data within the ETH network, it expands the capability of danksharding. The proto-danksharding implementation has important implications for layer-2 rollups. To lead to a more seamless and cost-effective experience for ETH users, this upgrade is going to make more space available for data blobs and is expected to reduce gas gees connected using layer-2 solutions.

Ethereum gas fees, was a problem that many users have been facing. The charge per transaction on the Ethereum layer-2 chain has ranged from $0.02 to $0.21 in 2023, while the average fee for transactions on the Ethereum mainnet has been $4.86.  

These updates are other key drivers of the optimistic Ethereum price predictions for 2024, covered in the next sections.  

Ethereum Forecast Q2 2024  

Considering these dynamics, cryptocurrency experts have devised price predictions for Ethereum in Q2 2024. Based on past price fluctuations and market trends, the average ETH rate for April is anticipated to hover around $3,701.57. While this forecast inspires confidence in Ethereum’s performance, it’s crucial to acknowledge the cryptocurrency market’s inherent volatility. Forecasts suggest minimum and maximum price ranges for ETH in April at $3,657.54 and $3,745.59, respectively, highlighting potential gains and corrections. 

Technical Ethereum Forecast: ETH price could target $4,000 again

The technical Ethereum forecast for Q2 also looks positive, with a very similar daily chart to Bitcoin. While Bitcoin has made a fresh all-time high this year, Ethereum is still a way below the November 2021 ATH at $4,860.

The ETH price experienced a 50% Fibonacci retracement towards the trendline of the prevailing trend around $3,000. According to technical indicators Ethereum is currently oversold, using the CCI indicator, and shows a bullish divergence using the RSI or MACD indicators. A fresh all-time high may prove difficult in the second quarter but a pushback towards $4k looks likely for Ethereum.

Technical Ethereum Forecast 2024
Source: CAPEX WebTrader

Given the bullish chart pattern that is developing (falling wedge), the setup favours the actual bullish Ethereum forecast for the second half of the quarter. The recent triple-top at just under $4,100 is the next upside target and if this is broken then $4,400 and the November 2021 ATH will come into play. 

On Chain Metrics

On-chain metrics can be used to analyse investors' behaviour and make crypto predictions about future price activity. One of the most important on-chain metrics is the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio. This metric is an indicator used to assess the average profit/loss of investors who purchase an asset. It can provide clues as to when investors might begin taking profits and selling their holdings, leading to pullbacks in price.

For long-term analysis and Ethereum forecast, the quarterly and annual MVRV ratios are the most helpful. The average profit or loss experienced by investors who bought an asset in the previous three months is measured by the 90-day MVRV ratio, and the same is measured over the previous year by the 365-day MVRV ratio.  

The 90-day marginal return on investment (MVRV) for Ethereum is 15.25%, meaning that investors who bought ETH in Q4 2023 are sitting on a 15.25% profit. In a similar vein, the current 365-day MVRV ratio of 24.18% indicates that investors making purchases in 2023 are, on average, making gains of 24.18%.

Ethereum_Forecast_2024.png

Interestingly, it is clear from comparing the two timeframes that investors are probably going to feel pressured to sell their assets and take profits. Undoubtedly, this might lead to a sell-off. The graphic illustrates that ETH has had significant corrections when MVRV reaches 9% to 34% on the yearly timeframe and 7.8% to 31% on the quarterly timeframe. As a result, this region is known as a danger zone.

In addition to investors, traders also appear to be bullish. This conclusion is drawn from the funding rates, which exhibit an uptrend. A trend like this implies that long holdings are becoming more prevalent, which is indicative of a general bullish sentiment in the market. 

Ethereum_On_Chain_Analysis.png

Ethereum Price Predictions  

Ethereum has a bright future ahead of it since it is gradually becoming more than just a transactional currency and is becoming recognized as a "store of value" for businesses trying to maximize their wealth. NFTs, DApps, DeFi, smart contracts, and Ethereum functionality go hand in hand, and this list is just getting longer each year.

Let's examine Ethereum's price predictions for the near future (2024) and long-term (2025-2030). Please remember that many long-term crypto price predictions are generated using algorithms, which means they can change at any time. 

Institutional Ethereum Price Predictions for 2024, 2025, and 2030

The Ethereum forecast from the global investment fund house, VanEck, seems quite bullish on Ethereum and believes that Ethereum’s potential is as a “triple-point asset which includes capital asset, a consumer asset and a store of value. VanEck asserts that the market cap for Ethereum could exceed $2 trillion under the right circumstances.

The JPMorgan Managing Director highlights Ethereum's potential, especially with the "Protodanksharding" upgrade, projecting a price towards $8,000 by 2026 and possible outperformance over Bitcoin in 2024.

Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood is massively bullish on Ethereum. Her prediction estimates that Ethereum could reach ATHs of between $170K – $180K by 2030.

Tyler Winklevoss, an investor and the creator of Winklevoss Capital Management and the Gemini cryptocurrency exchange, projected that Ethereum might be valued as much as gold. This would place the price of Ethereum at $80,000 based on the 10 trillion market capitalization of gold at the time of the interview. 

Individual Ethereum Price Predictions

Ronghui Gu, CEO of the smart contract audit company CertiK, forecasts Ethereum at $30,000 to $50,000 by 2030. 

Bill Barhydt, CEO of trading platform Abra, once said in an interview with CNBC, that Ethereum could touch a price of $40,000. This is thanks to the various use cases of the Ethereum blockchain and the Ether cryptocurrency, he said.

Even popular crypto blogs such as Gov Capital and Traders Union have total faith in Ethereum and maintain a bullish view on the same. Gov Capital forecasts Ethereum to touch $7,200 by the year 2025 and Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, believes that it might trade in the range of $6196.08 by the end of 2025, and the coin could be worth $31656.34 by 2030.  

Michaël van de Poppe is anticipating a correction to around $1,900, followed by a rise to $3,400-$3,800 in early 2024. Predicting Ethereum to reach an impressive $10,000 by 2024, Anthony Sano emphasizes Ethereum's unique staking feature and the likelihood of an Ethereum ETF introduction, which he believes will attract institutional investors.

According to Cryptonewz, by the time it is 2025, Ethereum is forecasted to reach up to the maximum level of $6,500 and with a minimum price of $ 4,500. For the year 2030, it is expected that the token may go up to a maximum of $20,500, with a minimum price of $14,000.  

AI-based Ethereum Price Predictions for 2024, 2025, and 2030

Let’s examine some of the Ethereum price predictions posted by AI-based websites in January 2024.

Ethereum Price Prediction for 2024

LongForecast said ETH would trade at $5,348 by the end of 2024. Meanwhile, CaptainAltCoin said the coin would reach $3,672.22 in December. DigitalCoinPrice‘s Ethereum price forecast had it at $5,484.32 this year.

Ethereum Price Prediction for 2025

Looking ahead to 2025, CaptainAltCoin said Ethereum would climb to $21,297, more than three times LongForecast’s prediction of $7,075. DigitalCoinPrice said ETH would reach $6,046.85 next year.

Ethereum Price Prediction for 2030

CaptainAltCoin said the coin could trade at $53,243 in 2030. Bitnation said it would stand at $21,476 that year. DigitalCoinPrice’s ETH price prediction said it would be worth $18,604 at the start of the next decade.

While we can speculate about the potential price of Ethereum over the next months and years, the truth is that Ethereum still is a highly speculative investment. There is not much historical data to support these predictions. It is important to invest only what you are willing to lose and include some traditional investment instruments to build a strong portfolio.

Your investments should be small, and you should not place crypto investments above other financial goals, such as saving for retirement or paying off high-interest debt.

 

Is It Possible to Forecast the Price of Ethereum?  

Many price predictions for Ethereum are flawed because they lack the necessary analytical support. Investors will always be attracted to a high price point, especially one that is on an upward price trend. Someone holding a cryptocurrency priced at $0.01 could easily believe that it will rise to $10,000 just because it sounds good.  

The problem is that predictions can be made without any evidence or analysis. However, three types of analysis have been used in the financial world for a long time to try and forecast prices and the evolution of markets.  

  • Technical Analysis 
  • Fundamental Analysis
  • Sentimental Analysis  

Ethereum Forecast using fundamentals  

Investors in financial markets use fundamental analysis to study and evaluate the variables that impact an asset’s price. 

You can assess the intrinsic value of a cryptocurrency to determine if it is undervalued or overvalued. This can be achieved by analyzing qualitative factors like the state of the economy and cryptocurrency market conditions, as well as the management and market capitalization of crypto companies. 

Fundamental analysis can help traders determine the price of a cryptocurrency based on a wide range of information. This could be a great way to make long-term investment decisions. 

How to conduct an Ethereum price prediction today using fundamentals?  

Fundamental analysis is when you examine the fundamentals of cryptocurrency projects, from their market capitalization to the utility and value of the native token. 

Do not confuse the fundamental analysis and technical analysis. Fundamental analyses of cryptos are more qualitative and less tangible than statistical trends like price charts or historical market data. 

The fundamental analysis of cryptocurrency is like that of traditional financial markets with more traditional assets such as stocks. It is not as important to focus on a company’s historical financial performance, financial statements, or balance sheets. 

The following parameters can be used to help investors predict trends in crypto markets: 

  • Market capitalisation 
  • Total and circulating supply 
  • Token utility and use cases 
  • Community size 
  • The team of the crypto project
  • The crypto's trading volume
  • Crypto exchanges listings
  • Partnerships with trusted institutions
  • The latest news about the coin
  • Government rules and regulations 

It is important to remember that fundamental analysis can only give you an overview of cryptocurrency investments. You can better understand the project and the future changes in cryptocurrency prices by looking at all the information. To get a better picture, you can also refer to the company’s whitepaper. 

You can also examine blockchain metrics which provide crucial information about a cryptocurrency's technology and processes. 

Ethereum Forecast using technical analysis 

Technical analysis uses historical price charts and market statistics to examine and anticipate price changes in the financial markets. It is founded on the concept that if a trader can recognize historical market trends, they may anticipate future price trajectories accurately. 

Whereas fundamental analysis focuses on an asset's 'real value,' considering both external and intrinsic elements, technical analysis is only based on an asset's price charts. To anticipate future movements, all that is required is the recognition of patterns on a chart. 

The ability to recognize price trend cues in a market is an important part of any trading strategy. All traders must devise a strategy for determining the optimal entry and exit points in a market and using technical analysis tools is a popular technique of doing so. 

Technical analysis software is now so widely utilized that many people believe it has established self-fulfilling trading rules: As more traders use the same indicators to find support and resistance levels, more buyers and sellers will congregate around the same price points, repeating the patterns. 

In general, technical analysts look at the following broad types of indicators, formations, and theories: 

 

Ethereum Price Prediction Using Market Sentiments 

In finance, the term "sentiment" refers to a viewpoint or opinion about a market's condition. The sentiment of crypto market investors towards the asset is a description of their general emotions and attitudes. It reflects the collective psychology of all those involved in trading and developing cryptocurrency. 

How investors feel about cryptocurrency can have a tangible impact on market cycles and the price. It can have serious implications if enough traders act on the ideas, thoughts, and feelings they share, regardless of whether they are based on real-world data. This is evident in how tweets by Elon Musk have impacted Bitcoin's price (a bullish sentiment). 

For analyzing the sentiment of cryptocurrency markets, there are many statistics you can use. The following statistics provide vital information about the movement and trajectory of cryptocurrency assets: funding rates, sentiment indices, social media, and community analysis, and whale monitoring. 

The funding rates are the monthly payments that traders receive based on price differences between the spot price of currencies and tokens and the price difference between cryptocurrency perpetual contracts. Positive funding rates indicate a bullish market.  

A sentiment index is used to predict whether investors will act fearfully or greedily. It can be affected by volatility, market momentum, and investor responses to surveys. A fearful market can be an opportunity to buy if it is managed correctly. Conversely, a greedy market means that it is a good moment to sell. 

Another crucial aspect for assessing sentiment in crypto markets is the community’s activity on social media, especially Twitter and Telegram. Investors would look for an active social network with meaningful interaction across platforms. 

Whale monitoring is the process of keeping an eye out for big crypto players. A cryptocurrency whale is an investor who holds large-value transactions on multiple blockchains. Whale watchers spot major market participants' trades and trade accordingly. 

Ethereum Historical Prices 

Ethereum was first introduced through an initial coin offering (ICO), in August 2014. The project raised over $16 million by selling 50 million ETHs at a price of $0.31 per coin. Ethereum has always been closely following Bitcoin’s price evolution, marking the 2017 and 2021 peaks with new all-time highs.

However, Ethereum's total supply can be increased, unlike Bitcoin or Litecoin, which can cause inflation. During the 2022 crypto crash, Ethereum’s price has fallen by over 66%, or even more at some points. But even after dropping under the $1,000 milestone, the coin rehabilitated.

The ETH coin price has been falling in recent months despite the approach of ‘The Merge’ as cryptocurrency markets have turned bearish, especially since the collapse of the TerraUSD stablecoin (UST) and its accompanying LUNA token in May. 

The drop was felt throughout the entire crypto market and has also the bankruptcy of several crypto exchanges. The August enthusiasm and price rise were due to the news of the incoming transition to the PoS algorithm, which soon faded away. However, ETH was still struggling to maintain the $1,200 price by the end of 2022.

Ethereum largely remained in the background in 2023 also, as Bitcoin and numerous other cryptocurrencies experienced surges in popularity. ETH gained 80% during the year, testing the $2,500 level at the end of the year. 

Ethereum Forecast & Price Prediction - Summary

To summarize the Ethereum price predictions for 2024, the largest altcoin is forecasted to outperform the broader crypto market and for this reason, was recently included in the top 5 cryptocurrencies with the potential to explode. But that does not mean ETH is completely immune to bearish outcomes.

While an increase to $4,000 is possible, it is not a certainty since regulatory changes and unprecedented crashes plague the crypto market. Furthermore, considering the performance in 2023, ETH has not necessarily been the favorite asset of institutional investors. This lack of interest, if noted in 2024 as well, could act as an opposing force on ETH's potential growth.

Thus, it is advised always to do your own research and make the most ETH-ducated decision. 

Ethereum buy sell

Sources:

FAQs about Ethereum Price Predictions  

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Cristian Cochintu
Cristian Cochintu
Financial Writer

Cristian Cochintu writes about trading and investing for CAPEX.com. Cristian has more than 15 years of brokerage, freelance, and in-house experience writing for financial institutions and coaching financial writers.

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