US stock indices rebounded strongly after the ISM data

By: Miguel A. Rodriguez

10:30, 05 August 2022

The July US ISM non-manufacturing figure was well above the expected figure and outperformed the previous month

The issue of Nancy Pelosi's trip to Taiwan, which had raised certain fears in the market the previous day, dissipated when the United States House of Representatives President left the country without incident.

Another figure that showed strength was factory orders, which rose 2% in July against forecasts of 1.1%.

 

Therefore, data from the US economy dispel fears of a deep recession in the economy, at least for now. Moreover, it shows how consumption continues to be robust with a rotation from the goods sector to the services sector.

 

Market interest rates also rose yesterday, although slightly exceeding 2.80% in the case of the US 10-year bond. Comments from Federal Reserve officials who opposed more aggressive rate hikes also contributed to this movement. The statements were in line with the previous day's observations.

 

Technically speaking, these modest rises in treasury bond yields were not an obstacle for the stock markets to continue the upward path they began a little over six weeks ago. These bring them closer to the critical levels at which the bear market would end.

 

Better than expected corporate earnings also contribute directly to this improved performance of stock indices.

 

Another factor that has a positive effect on improving the market's risk sentiment is the falls in raw materials, as they are a prelude to lowering inflation figures, especially the price of crude oil and its derivatives.

 

Yesterday OPEC+ announced a minuscule increase in production (100k BPD), not enough to meet current demand. But US crude oil and distillates inventory figures reflected a well above-expected build in stocks, indicating that demand is declining and that there is above-normal stockpiling.

This brought strong oil selling, pushing WTI oil down to the $90.00 zone. Technically, it has broken down a major support level and is heading towards the next target in the $85 area.

 

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters

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