After the sell-off of the last days, the market seems to have taken a break
However, nothing has changed from a fundamental perspective; even the pandemic situation had had a setback when it became known that AstraZeneca's vaccine had unwanted adverse effects in one of the people they are testing on. One of the main factors for a return to normality is the achievement of an active vaccine.
Politicians and some pharmaceutical companies have gotten into an unprecedented race to achieve a successful vaccine in terms of time well below average in these cases. This news of harmful side effects of one of them can cause expectations to wane and, therefore, hinder the stock markets' advance.
What we are seeing is only a consolidation of the sharp declines experienced recently with no solid reason to anticipate a return to highs.
As shown in the TECH100 chart, after stopping its decline in the central support zone located around the 11000 zone, the index is consolidating in a bearish flag pattern that would lower below the approximate level of 11150.
The Dollar has continued its upward correction, mainly driven by the fall of the British Pound after the considerable concern for the market that implies the British prime minister's intention to breach Brexit's previous agreements, which would lead him to break rules of international law.
EUR/USD has also followed the bearish path of GBP/USD, given its direct correlation with this pair, and has gone below its intermediate supports of 1.1780 to 1.1752., breaking the uptrend line that began at the end of July.
The next and most important support level is in the area around 1.1713, below which it makes its way to more severe losses until the 1.1450-1.1500 area with its intermediate support at the 1.1621 area.
In this sense, tomorrow is going to be crucial for the future development of the Euro
No change in monetary policy is expected at the ECB meeting. Still, it is highly likely that the economic future's assessment will be more pessimistic after the increase in pandemic cases in Europe and the decline in some high-frequency economic indicators.
This in itself would be negative for the Euro since it would make the market anticipate new cuts in interest rates or increases in the amounts of its asset purchase program. More important than this would be any mention by Christine Lagarde opposing an excessive strength of the Euro.
This would cause a sharp and rapid movement lower for the Euro. Market participants will be very vigilant about this possibility.
