Global uncertainty over pandemic evolution influences optimism
The market's focus is once again on the evolution of the pandemic.
The increase in the number of deaths and those infected by the disease in North American states such as Texas and Florida and the rise in cases in Hong Kong and Japan, keep investors at bay.
This is reflected in an indecisive stock market that does not stop fluctuating between small losses and gains.
The US Dollar has marginally strengthened due to lower risk appetite in the market, especially against the Euro.
EUR/USD is trading again within the previous range below 1.1300, and treasury purchases have increased remarkably in a typical move to flee to safe-haven assets.
Tnote10 is approaching its all-time highs with a yield below 0.60%.
The OIL market
The commodities market remains bullish in general terms, mainly GOLD and COPPER, but this is not the case with OIL.
The monthly report of the IEA (International Energy Agency) provides encouraging data on the evolution of the crude oil market.
The global supply of crude oil fell 2.4 million BPD (barrels per day) in June, reaching the lowest 9 years at 86.9 million BPD.
The fall in demand for crude oil in the second quarter was not as sharp as expected, and an increase in the global market of 400k BPD in 2020 to 92.1 mill BPD is calculated. Likewise, there is a drop in the floating storage of crude oil of 34.9 million barrels from May's maximum peak.
However, despite the correct data that should initially boost crude, the agency warns that the market remains biased to the downside.
A significant rebound in demand is expected for the third quarter, but the increase in the number of infected and the possibility of new lockdown continue to cast shadows among producers and investors and directly limit the recovery of the OIL price.
This situation of loss for the moment is reflected in the OIL chart which, as can be seen, has been developing a bearish divergence in the RSI since the beginning of June, always below an important resistance level at $41.26.
If the situation of uncertainty caused by the increase in numbers of people affected by the disease continues, the fear of new confinement in countries as important to the global demand for crude oil as the United States could lead the OIL to downward corrective movements to at least 39.60 where its first intermediate support is located.
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