This is the main debate among investors after the employment figures showed a growth rate much lower than expected, leading to the ruling out of the reduction in asset purchases, at least in the medium term. The New York Federal Reserve inflation expectations data also contributed to this outcome, increasing to 3.4%.
Commodities on the uptrend.
Today the commodity markets continue to rise, with copper near record highs. In Asia, iron ore and coal hit new highs too. All the factors come together to encourage inflationary expectations in an economic scenario where both central banks and governments have flooded the market with liquidity through fiscal aid stimulus measures, zero interest rates, and asset purchase programs.
Today the CPI data in the United States is scheduled for publishing. The figures are expected to rise to 3.6% year-on-year.
The yields of the North American bonds are gradually rising with the 10-year benchmark above 1.60%. Still, perhaps more significant are the performances of the European bonds leading the way before the European Central Bank and the Bank of England statements.
The yield on the German 10-year BUND is already approaching positive levels, clocking at 0.16%, after having climbed more than 50 bps in the last quarter. In terms of price, it has fallen to a wide support zone that is around 169.20. The selling pressure of fixed income continues to be present globally.
The rise in interest rates in Europe due to the expectations of an early start for the withdrawal of stimulus policies from the ECB is supporting the euro. Under these circumstances, the EUR/USD pair managed to overcome the downtrend line, opening the way to new advances and only finds a resistance level in the zone of 1.2180.
Due to advances in the rate of vaccination in Europe and the lifting of mobility restriction measures, Germany lifted the quarantine for vaccinated travellers. This also contributed to better economic recovery expectations, offering extra support for the EUR.
Sources: investing.com, reuters.com.