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The UK is heading toward recession

Miguel A. Rodriguez
Miguel A. Rodriguez
14 September 2020
ONS economic predictions are grim.

Over the past couple of weeks, we saw the pandemic effects over the world's biggest economies, such as the US, Germany, Japan.

The latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed a historical decline for the UK economy. The country’s economy contracted by 20.4% in April alone. It is a more significant drop than the one recorded during the 2008-2009 financial crises. A decade ago, the GDP shrank only 6.9% in 13 months. Data shows that every area of the economy was affected by the pandemic and essential service sectors contracted by a fifth (high street store closure, car sales, hospitality). The manufacturing sector's output fell by a quarter, while construction fell 40%.

Even though the lockdown measures started to ease in May, analysts believe that between April and June, it is possible that an even more significant drop could make the country fall into a deep recession.  

Overall, ONS expects the economy to contract by 11.5% this year. If the country is hit by a second wave of infections and a second lockdown is necessary, the GDP could plummet 14%. 

The country’s benchmark, UK100, closed yesterday's trading session being 2.6% lower.

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Miguel A. Rodriguez
Miguel A. Rodriguez
Financial Writer

Miguel worked for major financial institutions such as Banco Santander, and Banco Central-Hispano. He is a published author of currency trading books.