EUR/USD Weekly Technical Forecast: Markets Brace for This week Events

By: Miguel A. Rodriguez

09:17, 28 September 2020

Forex, Commodities, and indices markets await this week's the first US presidential debate and US, Eurozone, and the UK highly important data.

Key Events for The Coming week  


On Monday, September 28, markets will tune in the ECB president Lagarde’s speech and the Fed Mester’s speech at 7:00PM (GMT). 

On Tuesday, September 29, eyes will be on the German inflation numbers for September, the US consumer confidence index print, and the Fed Williams speech. 

On Wednesday, September30, markets will follow the Chinses PMI numbers, the US Biden/Trump presidential debate, the UK GDP Q2 final read, ECB Lagarde’s Speech, the German unemployment numbers, the US GDP Q2 final read, the US oil inventories change and the Fed Kashkari’s speech.  

On Thursday, October 1, investors will find out about the Swiss inflation rate and September’s manufacturing PMI final numbers for Switzerland, Germany, Eurozone, the UK, and the US. The market also will know about the US ADP employment change for September, the PCE price index for August, and the US initial jobless claims. 

On Friday, October 2, eyes will be on the Eurozone inflation rate for September, the ECB vice president Guido’s speech, the US Non-Farm Payrolls with the unemployment rates for September, and the Michigan consumer sentiment index read. 

Next week, the EU/UK negotiations will resume yet with lower chances to strike a free trade deal, as the UK government does not seem to be keen on signing a deal at any price, while the EU may take legal action in response to the internal market bill. 

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EUR/USD Daily Price Chart ( June 19 - September 27, 2020 )


Chart Source: Webtrader, Capex.com

Last week, EUR/USD failed to overtake the bullish trendline originated from the August 3 low at 1.1694 and closed below the 50-day moving average generating a bearish signal. On Friday, the price closed above the low end of the current 1.1621- 1.1713 trading zone. 

A daily close below the low end of the zone at 1.1621 reflects a stronger bearish sentiment and may send EURUSD towards the monthly support at 1.1459 (February 2019 high). 

On the flip-side, a failure in closing below the low end of the zone signals bears reluctance and could reverse the pair’s direction towards the high end of the current trading zone at 1.1713. 

EUR/USD Four Hour Price Chart ( August 27- September 27, 2020 )



Chart Source: Webtrader, Capex.com

Last week, EUR/USD slipped to the lower trading zone as discussed on the daily chart and started a downward trend creating lower highs with lower lows. 

To conclude, while the bearish bias is still intact a break above 1.1661 changes the pair’s technical outlook to neutral and may cause a rally towards the high end of the current trading zone discussed above on the daily chart at 1.1713. On the other hand, a break below the 1.1600 threshold could send EUR/USD even lower towards 1.1530. As such, the support and resistance levels underlined on the chart should be considered.  


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