Even the Corona pandemic takes second place, all interest is on the US elections – Market Overview – November 2, 2020

By: Miguel A. Rodriguez

09:58, 03 November 2020

The whole market is focused around the North American elections this week and probably for a more extended period of time.

Today and after the close of last month, the stock markets experience gains that can only be considered technical corrections in most indices, after more than two weeks of continuous declines.

The PMI economic figure continues to show signs of improvement in the major countries, China 53.8 vs. 53 expected, Germany 58.2 vs. 58 expected and The European Union 54.8 vs. 54.4 expected.

The market has its eyes on the consequences of the imposed lockdown in most European countries that will undoubtedly have negative effects on the economy and will be reflected in future worse macroeconomic figures.

All this without ruling out an increase in uncertainty if the US electoral results are contested. Trump has spoken out in this regard, questioning the validity of the US electoral system. If this happened, the indices would suffer more significant losses globally.

TECH100 is still trading around the 100 days SMA at 11.100, which is currently acting as the direct support, but a loss of these levels would take it towards the 10.650 area.

Global energy market – OIL

In this scenario of more significant uncertainty, OIL continues with its selling pressure.

In addition to a drop in global demand that will undoubtedly be increased by European governments' lockdown measures, another essential factor is the production entry into the market for in Libya. This supplies a vital quantity of oil in the market.

It is expected to increase from the current 500k barrels per day to 1M barrels per day. Suppose demand remains weak, despite China's economic recovery, and the OPEC + countries do not reach an agreement to reduce production. In that case, something that is not feasible in short/medium term crude will continue to suffer bearish pressure in the future.

Technically, it has broken the support of $36.50 and does not find any obstacles until the $31.50 area, which is the low reached in May of this year.

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