How Gold Price Could Trade in the Upcoming Week?

By: Miguel A. Rodriguez

10:20, 16 November 2020

Investors will tune in multiple speeches of monetary policymakers; what moves markets in the upcoming week?

Key Data Releases in the Week ahead

On Monday, November 16, the market expects the Japanese GDP (Q3) read, and will tune in the RBA governor Lowe’s speech, the ECB president Lagarde’s and her deputy Guindo’s speeches with Fed members Mersch’s, Clarida’s, Haskel’s and Daly’s speeches, respectively.

On Tuesday, November 17, investors will find out about the US retail sales numbers of October, the US industrial Productions numbers of October, and will tune in the Bank of England governor Bailey’s speech, the ECB president Lagarde’s speech, Fed members Bostic’s, Daly’s, William’s speeches and the Bank of Canada governor Macklem’s speech.

On Wednesday, November 18, markets will follow the RBA governor Lowe’s speech, the UK, the Eurozone, and Canada’s inflation rates of October. Later on, traders will check the change in the US oil stockpiles and will hear Fed members Evans, Williams, and Bullard’s speeches, respectively.

On Thursday, November 19, eyes will be on the Australian unemployment rates of October, the ECB president Lagarde’s speech, the US initial jobless claims, and the Fed member Mester’s speech. 

On Friday, November 20, markets will check the Japanese inflation rates of October, the UK GfK consumer confidence number of November, the Australian, UK retail sales numbers of October, and the Canadian Retail sales of September, and the Eurozone consumer confidence index of November.

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Gold - Daily Price Chart (October 8 – November 15, 2020)

Last week, the Gold closed below the 50-day SMA and settled in the current trading zone of $1,861- $1,921. The price failed on multiple occasions to a lower trading zone reflecting bears’ reluctance. 

A daily close below the low end of the trading zone at $1,861 could send the price for a test of the monthly support level at $1,796.

On the other hand, a daily close above the high end of the zone at $1,921 may encourage bulls to rally the price towards the August 18 high at 2,015.

Gold- Four Hour Price Chart (October 29 – November 15, 2020)

On November 9, the Gold broke below the bullish trend line originated from October 29 originating from October 29 low at $1,859. The price rebounded from $1,850 and rallied eyeing a test of the high end of the current trading zone discussed on the daily chart above.

In conclusion, at present the Gold trades in a sideways move creating higher lows with lower highs however, a break below the upward trendline originated from the November 9 low at $1,850 may start a bearish bias and a break below $1,847 could send the price even lower towards $1,796 while a break above $1,966 may trigger a rally towards the September 1 high at $1,992. As such, the support and resistance levels underlined on the chart should be considered.

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