Article Hero

Investor sentiment returns to negative territory, as Europe faces the fourth wave of infections – Market Overview

1616583543.png
Miguel A. Rodriguez
Miguel A. Rodriguez
05 November 2022
Better than expected PMI data in Europe wasn’t enough to change investors' mood, which remains negative.

Germany's February manufacturing PMI jumped to 66.6, higher than the 60.8 expected. Also, data for Europe improved substantially, recording a figure of 62.4 vs 57.7 expected.

Despite the positive numbers in the manufacturing sector, the market expects the situation to worsen due to mobility restrictions (confinement and curfew measures imposed by Germany, France, Italy, and the Netherland, among others).

Europe is now considered to be amid the fourth wave of infections. Due to lack of supplies, the slow rollout of vaccines heralds a much bleaker economic outlook than previously anticipated.

The European Central Bank will undoubtedly have to maintain its ultra-expansionary monetary policy for a more extended period, perhaps more than was initially foreseen. In such a scenario, the difference between European and North American bond yields could widen even more, potentially strengthening the North American currency against the euro.

EUR/USD, on the downward spiral.

EUR/USD has fallen even further, breaking the nearest support located at 1.1844.

The next potential target for this downward trend would be located in the area between 1.1640 and 1.1700.

In general, the U.S Dollar has strengthened against all its pairs, including the Japanese yen. Therefore, the downward movement of the EUR/USD pair is caused by the intrinsic weakness of the euro and a stronger North American currency that resumes the upward path from the beginning of the year, supported by the increase in long-term bond yields.

The negative risk sentiment in Europe is also starting to affect European stock markets, experiencing several days of setbacks.

In the case of Germany30, the falls are minimal. The index is still within the uptrend zone above support zones located at 14424 and 14 168. Only a fall below these levels would signal that this latest uptrend is beginning to reverse.

Sources: Bloomberg, investing.com.

This information prepared by capex.com/za is not an offer or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial products referred to herein or to enter into any legal relations, nor an advice or a recommendation with respect to such financial products.This information is prepared for general circulation. It does not regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or the particular needs of any recipient.You should independently evaluate each financial product and consider the suitability of such a financial product, by taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs, and by consulting an independent financial adviser as needed, before dealing in any financial products mentioned in this document.This information may not be published, circulated, reproduced, or distributed in whole or in part to any other person without the Company’s prior written consent.
Past performance is not always indicative of likely or future performance. Any views or opinions presented are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of capex.com/zaJME Financial Services (Pty) Ltd trading as CAPEX.COM/ZA acts as intermediary between the investor and Magnasale Trading Ltd, the counterparty to the contract for difference purchased by the Investor via CAPEX.COM/ZA, authorised & regulated by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission with license number 264/15.  Magnasale Trading Ltd is the principal to the CFD purchased by investors.

Share this article

How did you find this article?

Awful
Ok
Great
Awesome

Read More

Miguel A. Rodriguez
Miguel A. Rodriguez
Financial Writer

Miguel worked for major financial institutions such as Banco Santander, and Banco Central-Hispano. He is a published author of currency trading books.