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Quiet end of week – Equities linger – Market Overview – November 27

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Miguel A. Rodriguez
Miguel A. Rodriguez
05 November 2022
The day after Thanksgiving is a day of transition in markets with little activity in which the North American session will close earlier than usual.

The stock market continues to fluctuate but maintains its positive bias, mainly due to the optimism that the advances in vaccines that the different pharmaceutical companies have achieved and anticipate a return to normality in the first months of next year.

Crude Oil

The expectation that mobility restrictions will gradually disappear soon is the main reason why crude oil has experienced a significant rise in recent days that has led it to exceed the maximum located at $43.50, a level that has been acting as resistance lately and has even closed the gap of March by exceeding the level of $44.50.

Technically, the last downtrend can be considered when trading above these levels, which is also the 0.618%Fibonacci retracement of the entire bearish leg that originated as a result of the crisis in March.

But the fundamental factors also have to contribute to this recovery and for this would be necessary to have decreasing figures in inventories and, above all, an increase in global demand for crude oil, something that will undoubtedly take time and will require that the consumption and growth figures follow the same upward path that began in recent weeks.

The positive correlation of crude oil with the Canadian Dollar is high as this country is an exporter of this raw material and constitutes an essential factor in its GDP composition. For this reason, the Canadian dollar has benefited from this better performance of crude oil, to which must be added the better commercial prospects after the Democratic victory.

Trade tensions with the Trump administration have been of great intensity, and it has been an element of uncertainty for Canada that has negatively affected the price of the currency.

USD/CAD reflects these better perspectives with the strengthening of the Canadian dollar; technically, it is in a critical support zone around 1.3000 that, if broken downwards, undoes the previous uptrend and could open its way towards the 1.2840 and 1.2580 area.

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Miguel A. Rodriguez
Miguel A. Rodriguez
Financial Writer

Miguel worked for major financial institutions such as Banco Santander, and Banco Central-Hispano. He is a published author of currency trading books.