The Week ahead Update: Key Market data and US Dollar Price Forecast

By: Miguel A. Rodriguez

11:06, 05 October 2020

Investors await this week's important data releases from the US, UK, Europe, alongside speeches from monetary policymakers.

Key Events for The Coming week   

On Monday, October 5, markets await the Eurozone and the UK’s final composite PMI numbers for September, the Eurozone retail sales numbers of August, the US non-manufacturing ISM figures of September, and Fed members Evans and Bostic speeches.  

On Tuesday, October 6, investors will follow the RBA interest rate decision, the ECB president Lagarde’s speeches, the US balance of trade with the Fed chair Powell speech.

On Wednesday, October 7, markets will tune in the ECB president Lagarde’s speech, Fed members Barkin, Williams, and Kashkari’s speeches and will find out about the change in the US oil inventories and the latest Fed’s meeting discussions from the Fed minutes. 

On Thursday, October 8, eyes will be on Switzerland’s unemployment rate, the BoE FPC statement, the ECB Monetary policy meeting accounts, and the US initial jobless claims. 

On Friday, October 9, traders will know about the Chinese final composite PMI numbers, the UK GDP Q3, Canadian unemployment numbers, and the US wholesale inventories read of August.  

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US Dollar Index Daily Price Chart ( May 29 – October 4, 2020 )

Chart Source: Webtrader,

On September 21, the Dollar index traded above the neckline of the inverted head and shoulders pattern and closed above the 50-day moving average eyeing a test of 95.24. However, the price reversed last week to the lower 94.04- 91.78 trading zone reflecting a weaker bullish sentiment. 

A daily close above the high end of the zone ie, above 94.04 could send the price towards the monthly resistance level at 95.24 (August 2016 low). 

On the other hand, a daily close below the 50-day moving average signals even weaker bullish momentum and could send the price towards the low end of the current trading zone at 91.78. 

US Dollar Index Four Hour Price Chart ( September 21- October 4, 2020 )

Chart Source: Webtrader,

On September 30, the US dollar index broke below the higher line on the bullish trendlines fan and started a downward trend creating lower highs with lower lows. Currently, the price eyes a test of the lower line on the same fan. 

To conclude, while the bullish bais still intact a break below the neckline of the inverted head and shoulders pattern could start a sideways move pointing the price towards the low end of the current trading zone discussed above on the daily chart at 91.78. Hence, a break below 93.54 could send the market towards 92.73, while a break above 94.32 may cause a rally towards 95.24. 

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