Weekly Gold Rate Forecast: Eyes on The Fed Decision and Key Data Release

By: Miguel A. Rodriguez

09:18, 15 September 2020

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This week, investors await highly important data release from the US, UK, Europe, and other G7 economies, alongside central banks' rates decisions that may spark a move in commodities, Forex

Central Banks Rate Decisions and More 

On Tuesday, September 15, markets await the UK employment change numbers for June with the Zew index figures (Germany and the Eurozone) for September. 

On Wednesday, September 16, traders’ eyes will be on the UK and Canada inflation rates for August, the US retail sales for August, and the interest rate decision with the FOMC economic projections. 

On Thursday, September 17, markets will find out about the New Zealand GDP growth rate Q2, the Australian unemployment rate, the Bank of Japan interest rate, the final print of the Eurozone inflation rate, and the bank of England interest rate decision.   

On Friday, September 18, traders expect the Japanese inflation rates for August, the UK and Canada retail sales for August, and the US Michigan sentiment index for September. 

Gold Daily Price Chart (June 19 - September 13, 2020)


Chart Source: Webtrader, Capex.com

On August 6, Gold rallied to an all-time high at $2,075 then corrected lower and developed a continuation pattern (ascending triangle) highlighting that XAU/USD may resume bullish price action if breaks and remains above the upper line of the triangle. 

Alongside that, the market has failed - since August 19 - on multiple occasions to close below the low end of the current $1,921- $2,015 trading zone. Therefore, Gold could rally towards the high end of the aforementioned trading zone at $2,015. 

With that said, a close below the low end of the zone ie, below $1,921 reflects weaker bulls and possibly sends Gold towards $1,859. 

Gold Four Hour Price Chart (August 27- September 13, 2020)


Chart Source: Webtrader, Capex.com

On September 3, Gold broke below the bullish trendline support originating from the August 26 low at $1,902 and generated a bearish signal. However, on September 9 the price created a higher low and returned to trade in a sideways move.

To conclude, while current bias remains neutral, there is a good base to think that bulls may retake the initiative as discussed above on the daily chart. A break above $1,976 may trigger a rally towards $2,009, while a break below $1,898 could send XAU/USD even lower towards $1,862.

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