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Turkish Lira Forecast & Price Predictions 2024 and Beyond: Stability Amid Successive Monetary Tightening

Turkish Lira Forecast 2024
Cristian Cochintu
Cristian Cochintu
02 November 2023

The Turkish Lira stabilized since mid-July, trading around the 27 level against the US Dollar, the highest level the pair has ever recorded. With Turkey's Central Bank tightening aggressively for a third straight month as it steps up efforts to rein in inflation that has soared for years, what are the latest Turkish Lira forecast and price predictions for 2024 and beyond? 

Turkey has boosted interest rates for the fifth time since June as policymakers step up their battle to snuff out the country’s long-running inflation crisis.

The Turkish Lira was little changed at 28.13 against the dollar after the announcement. It has weakened by 70% in two years, largely due to President Tayyip Erdogan's long-standing opposition to high rates and influence over the central bank. Domestic demand and sticky services inflation continue to put upward pressure on inflation, which was above expectations in the third quarter, the bank said.  Developments in geopolitics also pose risks to inflation via higher oil prices, were stated also.  

With inflation seen ending this year at 68%, where do banks and analysts forecast the Turkish Lira will move in 2024 and beyond?

Turkish Lira Forecast & Price Prediction – Summary   

  • Turkish Lira forecast 2023: The currency has lost over 30% of its value against the dollar this year, and analysts forecast Turkish Lira cannot hold the 28.00 levels too much and break towards 30 by the end of the year. 
  • Turkish Lira price prediction 2024: With the policy rate seen at 40% in early 2024 by the largest banks, the Turkish Lira is forecasted to decline further, up to 20% against the US Dollar next year.   
  • Turkish Lira forecast for the next 5 years: Agencies and banks continue to forecast a Turkish Lira decline in the next years under Erdogan. The most bearish 5-year Turkish Lira price predictions see the USD/TRY trading as high as 85-90.

With CAPEX.com you can trade USD/TRY, EUR/TRY and GBP/TRY with low spreads and 1:10 leverage. 

High-interest rate currencies like the Turkish lira are very attractive to those who are aiming for swap points in forex trading. However, for beginners, trading for Turkish lira swap points carries a great deal of risk. 

Follow the USD/TRY, EUR/TRY, and GBP/TRY price charts for live data, and read our latest Turkish Lira forecast and price predictions for 2023 and beyond. Key pivot points and support and resistance levels provide further insights to help you make informed trading decisions. 

 

Turkish Lira Forecast - Fundamental Overview 

As inflation soared to above 80% in late 2022 and fell to just under 40% in May, Turkey gradually reduced its policy rate from 19% in late 2021 to 8.5% in March. Erdogan, a self-described "enemy" of interest rates who refers to the instrument as "the mother of all evil," has loudly advocated a strategy of decreasing rates instead of the conventional wisdom that rates must be raised to control inflation.  

Turkish citizens experienced a cost-of-living crisis because of the lira's sharp decline. In the last five years, it has lost over 80% of its value versus the dollar, and Turkey is now dangerously low on foreign currency reserves after selling FX to support the lira. 

He remained steadfast in his promise that interest rates would remain low for as long as he was in office, ensuring that economic policy would not alter. The opposition pledged to shift the conversation away from low interest rates.  

But he made a modification after being re-elected just a few days later. 

He first appointed Mehmet Simsek, a prominent banker, and economist, as finance minister. Despite having served in Erdogan's cabinet in the past, Mr. Simsek has made it plain that returning to "rational ground" and "compliance with international norms" is Turkey's only economic option.

He then named Hafize Gaye Erkan as the first female governor of the national bank. She is a well-known figure on Wall Street, and before to First Republic's collapse, she served as its chief executive. Despite this, she has never had a position in Turkey.  

In June, President Erdogan stated that his views on interest rates had not changed one week prior to the Central Bank meeting, but added that "we accepted that [Mr. Simsek] should take the necessary steps rapidly and easily with the central bank."

On June 22, The Committee decided to begin the monetary tightening process to establish the disinflation course as soon as possible, to anchor inflation expectations, and to control the deterioration in pricing behavior.

Turkey’s central bank hiked its key interest rate by 250 basis points to 17.5% in the following July meeting, while the market was expecting 350-500bps. 

Some analysts criticized the Turkish Central Bank’s move as not going far enough and many are still skeptical, however, that Erdogan will truly relinquish his hold over the actions of the central bank.

However, the bank tightened aggressively in the following 3 meetings, 1750 bps to 35%.

Turkey_Interest_Rate.png
Further hikes might be needed at the coming meetings to tackle Turkey’s inflation problem. The communications suggest that this is coming, even though tightening will be more gradual than had been expected a few weeks ago. Analysts still think that rates will rise to 40% in Q1 2024. 

Turkish Lira Forecast - Central Bank of Turkey

Expectations: Policy rate to reach 35% at the end of 2023 and a terminal rate of 40% in early 2024

Rationale: Given that there has been a notable increase in inflation over the past two months, it is expected that pressure on inflation will continue in the near future. In light of this, we predict annual inflation of roughly 70% for this year and 40% for 2024. Because of this, the Central Bank of Turkey's (CBT) primary goals have been to achieve disinflation and anchor inflation expectations.  

Following 17.5 percentage points of hikes at the previous three meetings, investment banks forecast the Turkey Central Bank to add another 250 bp by the end of 2023 – although a larger hike at the upcoming meetings should not be ruled out.

This would lead to a positive ex-ante real policy rate based on the 33% inflation forecast in the medium-term plan. Macro-prudential tightening should also help disinflation efforts. Given the policy signals, ING forecast a terminal rate of 40% in early 2024, with another round of hike(s) to tame inflation and attain the projection. Early signals of rate cuts should be expected by late 2024, according to the Dutch bank.

Turkish_central_banks_forecast_2024.png
Source: ING

Risk: Greater-than-expected price pressures lead to a stronger inflation path and lead to upside risks on our rate trajectory. Equally, pronounced weakness in growth with policy tightening would create downside risks to this Turkish Interest Rate forecast.

Is there a trading opportunity for foreign exchange (forex) investors in going long or short on the lira following the currency’s nosedive against the dollar, euro, and pound?  

The next sections look at the lira’s recent performance, analysts’ expectations, and Turkish lira forecasts.  

Turkish Lira Forecast - Technical Outlook 

On the technical front, the Turkish Lira traded lower, setting new records of decline against the dollar and euro after the elections which accelerated even after the spectacular interest rate hikes which missed expectations.

This is explained by JP Morgan: "Initially, lira depreciates, driven by pent-up pressures of the large stimulus ahead of the elections. As financial repression is relaxed, locals increase FX portfolios, while foreigners wait for better valuation entry points." 

The decline continued on the government’s decision to no longer defend the currency’s value by selling foreign exchange reserves and what we see now might be a sign of a return to a more rational monetary policy.

The actual movements against the Turkish Lira look like a blow-off top.

A blow-off top signals that the price of a security is about to decline. However, this does not imply a quick decrease in price. A blow-off's rising phase might extend for several weeks. With significant daily and weekly price gains, the beginning of this rise can appear extraordinary. However, occasionally the situation may worsen for a few more weeks.  

Before the price starts falling, it can be difficult to tell when a blow-off top is actually in its reversal stage (and not merely a pullback). Even then, it may not be deemed a blow-off top until four or five days after the decline begins. This is due to the fact that when a security is rising quickly, the price may temporarily decline but

Even while a blow-off top contains a number of essential characteristics, we can't tell from looking back whether it actually caused a price peak. Occasionally, the price will increase quickly, pause or draw back little, and then continue to increase. In order to be considered, the blow-off top must have a steep climb and steep fall.

More and more individuals become thrilled as the price increases. As more people begin to feel as though they are missing out, they begin to buy because they don't want to lose out any longer. More individuals will be persuaded to purchase as the price rises, which will lead to additional price hikes and increased volume.

The volatility of blow-off peaks is frequently very high. Slippage on orders is much more frequent toward the end when the reversal is taking place because the price is moving so quickly. When the price starts to decline, it can be quite challenging to sell near the peak since everyone rushes to the exits at once. 

Identifying Potential Blow-Off Tops in USD/TRY, EUR/TRY, GBP/TRY

Early on, blow-off tops may appear like strong rallies. A strong rally may rise at a 45-degree angle, but in a blow-off situation, the angle of ascent is almost vertical.

Some common characteristics of blow-off tops include:

  • Limited Pullbacks: Blow-off tops are enormous rallies that are nearly vertical with no significant pullbacks. This sets them apart from assets that are only experiencing a high uptrend. If there are pullbacks, they normally last only one to three days before the price begins to rise once more.
  • Massive Price Increases: These peaks do not follow modest price increases. The price may increase by several hundred or even several thousand percent, with the biggest dollar increases in the stock price—not necessarily percentage gains—occurring in the final week or few days of the rally.
  • Bearish Volume: Blow-off tops are often followed by swift declines on high volume, which shows that many long traders are selling their positions in the stock.
  • Broader Market: Blow-off peaks are frequently made worse by wider market conditions, so a sell-off in the broad market could result in a decline.

To avoid becoming a bag holder, it's usually better to exit a position as soon as possible if traders have detected a blow-off top incorrectly or traded it incorrectly. Going short in a blow-off too early might result in extraordinarily high losses if the loss isn't promptly reduced. Similarly, entering the market too late in a blow-off peak scenario might result in significant losses if the price begins to decline and doesn't quickly return to its previous levels.

US Dollar to Turkish Lira Forecast – Daily Chart 

USD/TRY pair advanced over 30% during 2023, trading above the 28.15 level after the CBoT decision to hike rates in October.  

US Dollar to Turkish Lira Forecast 2024
Source: Capex WebTrader

The steady uptrend signals a potential increase in the Turkish Lira declining rate against the US Dollar by the end of 2023 or in early 2024. 

Euro & Pound to Turkish Lira Forecast – Daily Charts

The EUR/TRY and GBP/TRY bounced back after the lows reached on 25 August. The pairs might test the highs by the end of 2023.  

A tight, extended consolidation is a bullish signal and points towards a breakout to new record highs. From a technical point of view, in the short term, the Turkish Lira forecasts and price predictions are bullish, while in the medium term, a blow-off top is more likely. 

Euro & Pound to Turkish Lira Forecast 2024
Source: Capex WebTrader

   

Turkish Lira Forecast: Can TRY stabilize or it will decline further? 

According to Commerzbank, the government and central bank introduced rescue measures, such as incentives to convert foreign exchange (FX) deposits to lira deposits and compulsory conversion of export revenues in order to enhance dollar supply in the market, and the lira exchange rate has momentarily stabilized. The strategy is referred to as "lira-ization" of the economy. 

These measures don't deal with the fundamental issues of uneven monetary policy and a dubious central bank per analysts. According to media reports, banks are already intervening in foreign exchange markets to support the lira. Commerzbank anticipates the next significant movement in USD-TRY following a brief respite. 

According to ING, the CBT has recently taken certain actions to oversee banks' pricing choices and the makeup of loan portfolios, while also attempting to curb growth in a few specific commercial loan types. These actions are also intended to help the demand for government bonds. Given this context, authorities' goals have remained to maintain a favorable financial environment. 

Gross reserves recently increased significantly as a result of swap transactions with banks, growth in the banking sector's FX deposits, and greater FX reserve requirements. 

While a slowdown in lending should help the lira, the continued requirement for large levels of external funding, a less rosy prognosis for the world economy, and the preference of policymakers to keep interest rates low should continue to be important variables in deciding the currency outlook. 

According to Wells Fargo, it’s a very bleak economic and market outlook for Turkey. One silver lining in the whole scenario could be the Turkish central bank’s ability to secure currency reserve swap lines with countries in the Middle East and China. If they can continue to draw on those lines and possibly extend and enhance those reserve currency lines, maybe there’s some support in the central bank FX intervention, explains the bank. 

JP Morgan cautioned that, even with the best intentions, the path to disinflate the economy would be protracted, while it was likely that the central bank would also aim to rebuild its FX reserves. 

They added that only a modest return to orthodox macroeconomic policies, including a slower pace of credit growth, some lower levels of financial repression, and some path to rebuilding FX reserves, was "unlikely to inspire capital inflows" meaning the lira would "likely remain on a more protracted depreciation path". 

The investment bank estimated the lira’s real effective exchange rate (REER), which considers prices and measures its value against other currencies whose countries Turkey does a lot of trade with, was now about 32% below its "fair value".  

Meantime, a return to orthodox macroeconomic policies could set the Turkish lira on a real appreciation trend back towards its fair value". However, initial real appreciation will be driven primarily by prices, with little scope for FX spot appreciation. 

Some analysts think the fair value for the lira is probably 15% or so lower, but containing a devaluation without substantial external support is going to be a desperately difficult task. 

Turkish lira price predictions 2022-2025 

Analyst consensus indicated that there could be scope for further weakness in the value of the Turkish lira.  

US Dollar - Turkish Lira Forecast 

Goldman Sachs revised its Turkish lira forecast in the wake of President Tayyip Erdogan't cabinet revamp, saying it now expected the currency to weaken to 28 to the dollar in 12 months compared with a previous price prediction of 22.

The bank forecasted the Turkish lira to weaken to 23.00, 25.00, and 28.00 to the dollar in three, six, and 12 months respectively. All the price levels were correctly forecasted by GS already. 

The TRY prediction from Danske Bank was one of the most bearish at the end of 2023, with the bank’s analysts forecasting that the USD/TRY rate could reach the 25 levels in 12 months’ time. 

“As long as an acute financial crisis can be avoided, the move is likely to be gradual,” the bank commented in a research note on 2 September 2022. This is another accurate Turkish Lira price forecast. 

ING forecast that the 30 lira-per-dollar mark could be breached earlier, with the rate potentially hitting this level at the end of 2023 – and reaching 40 by the end of 2025.  

ING’s USD/TRY forecast shows the pair reaching 30 by the end of 2023. The bank’s forecast for the end of 2024 shows the pair trading at 36, indicating a bullish USD/TRY forecast for 2025 over 40. 

Just after the elections, Wells Fargo forecasts that the Turkish lira will reach a new record low of 23 against the dollar by the end of June, and then 25 as early as next year. They expect Turkey’s unorthodox monetary and economic policy frameworks to remain in place going forward. 

JPMorgan's analysts said that macro adjustments were expected regardless of the results but laid out two scenarios based on the degree of commitment to more orthodox policies, such as interest rate rises to cool inflation. 

In a "strong commitment" scenario they forecasted the Turkish Lira would initially fall to 24-25 to the dollar and to 26 by year end. 

If the shift towards more orthodox policies looks like being more modest, however, the bank forecast Turkish lira could drop to close to 30 to the dollar by the end of 2023 albeit with a slower initial drop while bond yields were unlikely to adjust much in this scenario.

Trading Economics was also bearish in its Turkish lira projections as of 26 October 2023, forecasting that the USD/TRY rate could move from 28.59 at the end of this quarter to 30.46 in a year’s time.  

In its Turkish lira forecast for 2023, algorithm-based forecast website WalletInvestor saw the USD/TRY currency pair trading as high as 29.043 by the end of the year. The agency forecast the Turkish Lira in 2024 will follow a steady uptrend up to 35.00. In its 5-year Turkish Lira price prediction, the USD/TRY is seen at 54.00. 

Gov Capital forecasts the Turkish Lira to trade as high as 29.75 TRY per USD this year. On a 5-year Turkish Lira price prediction, the agency is forecasting USD/TRY to trade between 95.00 and 100.00.

Panda Forecast sees the Turkish Lira trading at 28 TRY per Dollar at the end of the year. 

Based on historical data, the platform issued a longer-term prediction than most banks – its Turkish lira forecast for 2025 predicted that USD/TRY would trade at an average of 30.727 by the end of that year. 

Euro - Turkish Lira Forecast 

The move above 20 for Eur against the Turkish Lira was forecasted by Commerzbank during the 2nd quarter of 2022. However, the bank forecasted the Turkish Lira to rebound and trade at 17.92 by the fourth quarter of 2023. 

Like its USD/TRY forecast, TradingEconomics forecast Euro Turkish Lira to be priced at 29.67 by the end of this quarter and at 30 in one year, according to Trading Economics' global macro models projections and analysts expectations. 

Pound - Turkish Lira Forecast 

Additionally, TradingEconomics forecast a pound-to-lira rate of 34.20 by the end of this quarter and 34.00 in 12 months’ time. 

Analysts at Monex expected the pair to stabilize, with the UK foreign currency firm’s USD/TRY forecast that the lira could then strengthen slightly, moving the pair back to 17.50. Analysts have yet to issue a pound-to-lira forecast for 2030. 

Due to market volatility, no bank or algorithm-based forecast website issued a pound-to-lira forecast for 2030. 

Note: 

When looking for Turkish lira future predictions, it’s important to bear in mind that analysts’ forecasts can be wrong. Analysts’ expectations are based on making a fundamental and technical study of the currency pair’s performance. However, past performance is not a guarantee of future results.  

Do your own research and always remember your decision to trade depends on your attitude to risk, your expertise in this market, the spread of your portfolio and how comfortable you feel about losing money. Never trade more money than you can afford to lose. 

Trading the Turkish Lira   

A popular way to trade Turkish Lira on the foreign exchange market is through derivatives

A forex-leveraged product is a contract in which you agree to exchange the difference in the price of a currency pair from when you open your position to when you close it. Open a long position, and if the forex position increases in price, you’ll make a profit. If it drops in price, you’ll make a loss. Open a short position, and the opposite is true. 

Forex is just one of the markets you can trade using derivatives. Learn more about leveraged trading

Our trading platforms can provide you with a smart and fast way to trade forex. You can trade via the CAPEX.com platforms in: 

  • Your web browser 
  • One of our mobile apps 

Each of our forex trading platforms can be personalized to suit your trading style and preferences, with personalized alerts, interactive charts, and risk management tools. 

Trading a USD/TRY CFD 

Trading the Turkish Lira
USD/TRY has a Sell price of 18.84560 and a buy price of 18.5972. You think the Turkish Lira will lose value against the US dollar because the Central Bank of Turkey might cut interest rates, so you decide to buy 0,5 standard lots at 18.5972. 

Each contract is equal to 100,000 of the base currency of the pair. In this case, selling a single USD/TRY standard contract is equivalent to trading 100,000 USD for 18,597,200 TRY so your total position is worth 92,986,000 TRY (500,000 USD). 

Derivatives are a leveraged product, so you don’t have to put down the full value of your position upfront. A deal of this size on USD/TRY has a margin requirement of 10%, so your margin would be 5% of the total exposure of your trade, which is 25,000 USD. 

If your prediction is correct 

The Turkish Lira falls as you predicted. You decide to close your position when the Sell price reaches 20.0000. 

To calculate your profit, you multiply the difference between the closing price and the opening price of your position by its size. 20.0000 – 18.5972 = 1.4028 or 14,028 pips, which you multiply by 0.5 contracts and pip value (0.53 USD) to get a profit of 3712.6914 USD (minus any overnight charges).  

If your prediction is wrong 

Turkish Lira rises instead. You decide to cut your losses and reverse your trade when the sell price is 18.0000. 

Your position has moved 5,972 pips against you, meaning you make a loss of 1,591.8175 (in addition to any overnight charges). 

Pip value is calculated using the following formula: Pip / Market Price x Lot x Contract Size. Learn more about forex pip calculation.

 

Read also our monthly updates on fx, commodity and stock market:  

FAQs on Turkish Lira Forecast 

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Cristian Cochintu
Cristian Cochintu
financial_writer

Cristian Cochintu writes about trading and investing for CAPEX.com. Cristian has more than 15 years of brokerage, freelance, and in-house experience writing for financial institutions and coaching financial writers.