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Banca Transilvania Stock (TLV)

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Cristian Cochintu
Cristian Cochintu
23 November 2023

After an impressive Q323, Banca Transilvania shares are even more popular among Romanian investors and top-performing international funds. While you can buy TLV shares directly, sometimes it is worth considering an ETF with TLV representation.

Banca Transilvania S.A. provides various banking products and services. Founded in 1993, Banca Transilvania S.A. was listed on the Bucharest Stock Exchange in 1998 with the ticker TLV and is now one of the top holdings in the largest Frontier and Emerging Markets ETFs (FM). 

Banca Transilvania Shares - Research and Ratings 

  • Is TLV stock undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts, and its price relative to the market? 
  • What is the analyst 12-month TLV shares price forecast? 
  • What are TLV’s future growth expectations? 
  • How has Banca Transilvania stock performed over the past 5 years? 
  • Should you buy TLV shares or invest in ETFs with TLV representation

    

Understanding Banca Transilvania shares: A brief history 

Banca Transilvania SA (BT) is a Romania-based bank that merged with Volksbank Romania SA in 2015.  

The Company’s business activities are divided into seven segments:  

  • The Corporate Client sector offers lending services, financial consulting and planning, cash management services, asset management, investment, and financial advisory for corporate clients.  
  • The Small and Medium-sized (SME) segment is represented by corporate clients. 
  • The Individual Client division provides financial products and services, such as loans, mortgages, deposits, card services, internet banking, and transfer money for retail clients.  
  • The Healthcare division provides tax assistance and financial services for medical specialties. 
  • The Treasury segment combines treasury activities.  
  • The Leasing and loans sector offers leasing components and consumer loans.  
  • The Other sector encompasses financial investment management, brokerage service, factoring, and real estate services.  

TLV shares are distributed among 3 categories: 

  • General Public - 63.8% 
  • Institutions - 31.1% 
  • Individual Insiders - 5.2% 

The top 25 shareholders own 34.63% of the company, while the top 5 shareholders are: 

  • NN Group N.V, Asset Management Arm – 10.13% 
  • European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Asset Management Arm – 6.89% 
  • Horia Ciorcila – 4.6% 
  • S.I.F. Oltenia S.A - 3.49% 
  • The Vanguard Group, Inc. - 3.1% 

TLV shares - Fundamental Analysis and Financial Ratings 

See the latest Banca Transilvania SA stock price analysis, including valuation, future growth, past performance, and more to help you make more informed investing decisions. 

Valuation 

Is TLV undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts, and its price relative to the market? 

  • TLV is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6x) compared to the peer average (9.2x) and European Banks industry average (8x). 
  • TLV is a good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.3x). 
  • TLV shares (22.1 RON) are being trade below simplywall.st analysts' estimate of fair value (RON29.03) by more than 20%.

Future Growth 

Banca Transilvania is forecasted to grow earnings and revenue by 2.4% and 5.7% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to decline by 2.8%. Return on equity is forecast to be 18.3% in 3 years. Analyst coverage for Banca Transilvania stock is good.

  • TLV's forecast earnings growth (2.4% per year) is above the savings rate (5.3%). 
  • TLV's earnings (2.4% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the Romanian  market (-3.4% per year). 
  • TLV's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly. 
  • TLV's revenue (7.9% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the RO market (-3.1% per year). 
  • TLV's revenue (5.7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year, but faster than the Romanian market (-1% per year). 
  • TLV's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years' time (18.3%). 

Past Performance 

How has Banca Transilvania performed over the past 5 years? 
Banca Transilvania has been growing earnings at an average annual rate of 13.2%, while the Banks industry saw earnings growing at 7.1% annually. Revenues have been growing at an average rate of 10.8% per year. Banca Transilvania's return on equity is 24.6%, and it has net margins of 42.8%.

  • TLV has high quality earnings.
  • TLV's current net profit margins (42.8%) are higher than last year's (39.3%). 
  • TLV's earnings have grown by 13.2% per year over the past 5 years. 
  • TLV's earnings growth over the past year (46.8%) exceeds its 5-year average (13.2% per year). 
  • TLV earnings growth over the past year (46.8%) exceeded the Banks industry's 10.3%. 
  • TLV's Return on Equity (24.6%) is considered high. 

Financial Health  

What are the financial health updates?  
Banca Transilvania has total assets of RON153.1B and total equity of RON12.3B. Total deposits are RON127.9B, and total loans are RON69.9B.

  • TLV's Assets to Equity ratio (12.5x) is moderate. 
  • TLV has a sufficient allowance for bad loans (165%). 
  • 91% of TLV's liabilities are made up of primarily low-risk sources of funding. 
  • TLV has an appropriate level of Loans to Assets ratio ( 46%). 
  • TLV's Loans to Deposits ratio (55%) is appropriate. 
  • TLV has a high level of bad loans (3.8%).    

Dividend 

Banca Transilvania is a dividend paying company with a current yield of 4.53% that is well covered by earnings. Next payment date is on 6th November 2023 with an ex-dividend date of 20th October, 2023.

TLV Shares Price Forecast 

What is the analyst 12-month TLV shares price forecast, and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target from analysts? 

TLV_Shares_Price_Forecast .png
Source: simplywall.st 

According to simplywall.st, the TLV 12-month target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

The analyst followed by stockpedia.com forecast Banca Transilvania SA shares price to target RON22.71. That is around 9.71% above the last closing price of RON20.70.

Trading Economics forecast Banca Transilvania shares to be priced at 21.62 by the end of this quarter and at 20.26 in one year, according to their global macro-models projections and analysts' expectations.

There are no 5-year TLV shares price forecasts and price predictions. 

Important: When considering TLV's fundamental analysis, financial rating and price predictions, it’s important to remember that high market volatility and changing economic environment makes it difficult to give long-term estimates. As such, analysts and algorithm-based platforms can and do get their ratings and predictions wrong. Always do your own research before making an investment decision. And never trade or invest more than you can afford to lose. 

Banca Transilvania Shares - Technical Analysis  

From a technical point of view, Banca Transilvania shares reversed the downtrend that started in September 2021 and gained over 30% during Q3 2023.

top_10_bvb_tlv.png

A golden cross occurred on the TLV chart when the 50-day moving average moved up toward the 200-day moving average and crossed it. This bullish sign was confirmed and pushed TLV as one of the best Romanian listed companies and the main driver of the BSE top 10 stocks. 

How to Invest in Banca Transilvania 

Some investors want to take an active hand in managing their investments, while others prefer to set it and forget it. Your preference may change but decide on an approach to get started. 

For most people, stock market investing means choosing among these two investment types: 

Individual TLV shares  

If you’re after a specific company, you can buy a single share or a few shares to dip your toe into the stock-trading waters. Building a diversified portfolio out of many individual stocks is possible, but it takes significant investment and research. 

If you go this route, remember that individual stocks will have ups and downs. If you research a company and choose to invest in it, think about why you picked that company in the first place if jitters start to set in on a down day. 

Traditional stockbrokers allow you to invest in local stocks. However, you might not be able to invest in international stocks listed on the major stock exchanges, global ETFs, and other assets. 

 

ETFs with TLV holdings 

Banca Transilvania (or any single stock, for that matter) can be a very volatile investment. You can manage the risk you see extreme highs and lows by diversifying your investment holdings. An ETF, for instance, contains a basket of individual stocks. When you invest in a fund, you also own small pieces of each of those companies. 

 

If you want an ETF with TLV representation, you might consider iShares MSCI Frontier and Select ETF. BlackRock's iShares is the largest provider of ETFs as calculated by assets under management. 

iShares MSCI Frontier and Select EM ETF_20230516165547.png
 

The fund can be suitable for Romania and foreign investors who want liquid and diversified exposure to another top 9 companies listed on the Bucharest Stock Exchange:

OMV Petrom (BSE: SNP)
Romgaz (BSE: SNG)
BRD (BSE: BRD)
Transgaz (BSE: TGN)
Electrica (BSE: EL)
Teraplast (BSE: TRP)
MedLife (BSE: M)
Nuclearelectrica (BSE: SNN)
One United Properties (BSE: ONE)

 

Why invest in TLV Shares via FM? 

With net assets of almost $1B, The iShares MSCI Frontier and Select EM ETF (FM) is the largest exchange-traded-fund that seeks to track the investment results of an index composed primarily of frontier market equities along with select emerging market equities. 

  • Exposure to frontier market stocks and smaller size emerging market stocks with an emphasis on tradability and investability of the underlying constituents 
  • One-click access to a virtually untapped investment portfolio, including Bucharest Stock Exchange and BET index exposure. 
  • Use to seek long-term growth and diversification 

How to Get Started with CAPEX.com 

Here is how to buy and trade stocks, ETFs and other assets with an international, highly regulated broker like CAPEX.com: 

  • Choose which type of account you want to use. Your first concern should be your risk appetite and time horizon. If you want to buy and hold shares, open an Invest account. If you want to speculate on price movements (including falling prices) with zero commission and leverage, open a CFD trading account. 
  • Create an account. Regardless of your chosen account, you need to register and complete the KYC process to verify your identity. 
  • Fund your account with fiat money. Before buying and trading stocks and ETFs, you need to fund your exchange account with U.S. dollars, Euros, or other currencies. 
  • Place your order. Click on the "Search" icon located in the left panel or by clicking on "ETFs" and then select the instrument, such as "iShares MSCI Frontier and Select EM ETF”.  

    

When trading stocks, the CFDs (contracts for difference) are stored in your account and are more liquid than the underlying asset.  

However, you should be aware that CFD trading is fast-moving and requires close monitoring. As a result, traders should be aware of the significant risks when trading CFDs. There are margins you need to maintain; if you cannot cover reductions in values, your position might be closed, and you'll have to meet the loss no matter what subsequently happens to the underlying asset. 

With CAPEX, you can trade CFDs on +2.000 stocks and invest in +5.000 stocks and ETFs with ownership. 

Free resources 

Before you start investing in shares, you should consider using the educational resources we offer like CAPEX Academy or a demo trading account. CAPEX Academy has lots of free trading courses for you to choose from, and they all tackle a different financial concept or process – like the basics of analyses – to help you to become a more informed trader. 

Our demo account is a great place for you to learn more about leveraged trading, and you’ll be able to get an intimate understanding of how CFDs work – as well as what it’s like to trade with leverage – before risking real capital. For this reason, a demo account with us is a great tool for investors who are looking to make a transition to leveraged trading. 

Sources:  

Shares - Investor Relations | Banca Transilvania 
Banca Transilvania SA (0DP9.IL) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo Finance 
BVB - Shares TLV BANCA TRANSILVANIA S.A. 
Banca Transilvania (BVB:TLV) - Stock Price, News & Analysis - Simply Wall St
TLV: Banca Transilvania SA Stock Price Quote - Bloomberg 
Banca Transilvania SA Share Price - BSE:TLV Stock Research | Stockopedia 
Banca Transilvania | TLV - Stock Price | Live Quote | Historical Chart (tradingeconomics.com) 

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Cristian Cochintu
Cristian Cochintu
financial_writer

Cristian Cochintu writes about trading and investing for CAPEX.com. Cristian has more than 15 years of brokerage, freelance, and in-house experience writing for financial institutions and coaching financial writers.