Crude oil prices were on a roller coaster ride in 2022, reaching a 15-year high before recession fears put downward pressure on prices. Here are the latest Oil forecasts and price predictions for 2023.
The easing of Covid restrictions in China as well as the recently imposed price cap on Russian crude should keep oil prices supported in 2023. However, global growth concerns are weighing on the minds of investors, according to the latest Oil analysis and price predictions from industry experts.
Looking ahead to 2023, there are two main things to keep in mind.
First, the US has confirmed it will start replenishing its Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) at a price between $68 and $72, meaning there may be a further reason for support up ahead.
Second, despite the reaction to the Chinese reopening trade being muted so far, the risk of recession is likely already discounted in the price of crude meaning there could be room for optimism in the first quarter of 2023 if the economic data shows more resilience than expected.
Oil Price Prediction – Summary
- Oil price prediction today: WTI and Brent may continue its bearish trends but at a reduced capacity, like what we’ve seen in Q4 of 2022. EIA forecast Crude Oil to average $83/b in the first quarter of 2023 (1Q23).
- Oil price prediction 2023: Sideways consolidation is not ruled out by experts, especially as support looms. Economists and analysts forecast Brent would average $89.37 a barrel, while WTI is projected to average $84.84 per barrel in 2023.
- Oil price prediction for the next 5 years and beyond: some expect demand for fossil fuels could fall in the medium-to-long-term, leading to a lower oil price in 5-10 years’ time. EIA expects the average Brent crude prices at $61/bbl in 2025 and $73/bbl in 2030.
Crude Oil Analysis and Outlook 2023
Following a strong start to the year, oil prices have been steadily declining through the end of 2022. A price increase that initially followed Russia's invasion of Ukraine has more than subsided as a result of Russian oil continuing to enter the market, global monetary tightening that threatens growth throughout much of the global economy, as well as China's zero-tolerance coal policy that also has an impact on economic activity and, in turn, demand side assumptions.
The strategic release of oil reserves from the US and the International Energy Agency (IEA), as well as price caps on Russian crude, have helped to contain prices while OPEC and its allies led by Russia (OPEC+) have tried to balance markets through shifts in supply.
Oil demand in 2023
While a slowdown in the US economy is anticipated, a decline in the economies of Europe and the UK is also likely to restrain demand for oil. According to OPEC predictions, China and India are anticipated to see the biggest rises in demand. In 2023, these economies are projected to develop by 5% to 6%, respectively. If China's tight limitations were eased any further and the zero-tolerance policy were relaxed, this would increase demand (upside risk).
The rise in industrial demand for gasoline and diesel points to a minor increase in global demand in 2023 of 2.3% (2.25 million barrels per day), as predicted by OPEC.
Oil supply in 2023
While Russian production is anticipated to decrease as a result of intensifying sanctions and price limitations, the US is anticipated to take the lead in the Americas in terms of supply growth. It is anticipated that non-Opec supplies will rise by about 1.5 million barrels per day (mb/d). OPEC production growth is anticipated to be negligible in 2023, at about 0.05 mb/d.
EIA forecast that global petroleum production will increase by 1% (1.1 million b/d) from 2022 to 2023. The United States and OPEC should account for most of the increase in global production, offsetting production declines in Russia. The agency forecast that Russia’s petroleum production will fall from 10.9 million b/d in 2022 to 9.5 million b/d in 2023 as a result of sanctions related to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. EIA forecast that U.S. production will grow by 5% (1.0 million b/d) in 2023, and OPEC liquid fuels production (which includes crude oil) will increase by 0.5% (160,000 b/d) in 2023.
How will supply and demand influence Oil forecasts & price predictions?
Experts anticipated that total oil supply increases in 2023 will fall short of demand-side growth. This indicates that prices will increase slightly from their current level (as of the end of 2022). Rising geopolitical tensions (which are still there and pose a threat) and the likelihood of a faster-than-anticipated economic recovery in China represent the two main upsides "risks" to oil prices (should covid policy see increased and more permanent relaxation).
Oil prices already partially reflect the decreasing rate of growth in the global economy that the markets have been pricing in. Should the US slowing growth turns into a recession and what appears to be a probable recession in parts of Europe turn into a prolonged one, there are still risks on the downside. But OPEC+ has historically responded swiftly to the threat of declining demand through production restraints, which would be a plausible response going ahead should a hard economic landing materialize.
A significant factor that might trigger a significant drop in crude prices is a de-escalation in the continuing Russia/Ukraine conflict, which would imply that a wave of supply might finally be permitted back into the larger market.
Oil price and the US Stock Market
In the past few years, the price of Brent crude oil has often, but not always, moved in the same direction as the US stock market. For example, from the second half of 2020 (2H20) through 2021, the Brent crude oil price and the value of the S&P 500, an equity index of widely traded U.S. public companies, both increased as economic growth was reflected in the rising profitability of companies as well as in rising demand for oil.
Oil prices and equities began moving in opposite directions in early 2022 when the price of crude oil continued increasing as Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine intensified global petroleum supply concerns. These price increases contributed to higher inflation and input costs for companies, leading to a decline in the USA 500, US Tech 100, and USA 30. As the Federal Reserve has increased interest rates to curb inflation, borrowing costs for companies have grown and expectations for economic growth have declined, putting further downward pressure on the S&P 500. However, from July to September 2022, the price of Brent crude oil resumed a positive relationship with equity prices, with both declining as concerns about global economic conditions also reduced expectations of petroleum demand growth, accompanied by pressure from the strong US dollar.
Oil price and inflation expectations
Inflation expectations also often move together with crude oil prices. One measure of inflation expectations is the percentage difference between yields for five-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) and U.S. treasury bonds. This spread indicates expectations for what the inflation rate will be in five years. Inflation expectations peaked in March at 3.6%, decreasing in recent months in part due to:
- Inflation, as measured by the U.S. Consumer Price Index, has flattened and slightly decreased recently, in part because energy-sector inflation has slowed down as oil prices have dropped; and
- Expectations for future economic activity, have also fallen.
Although the price of Brent crude oil continued to increase from April to June when inflation expectations were decreasing, persistent concerns about economic conditions and petroleum demand have contributed to crude oil prices decreasing with inflation expectations from July through September.
Crude Oil Analysis Q1 2023 – Technical Forecast: Breakdown Underway
Late in September, WTI began to decline near its yearly lows. Further decreases in the upcoming months are threatened by the breakdown below confluent technical support. As price moves into critical inflection points that could provide a respite from the recent selling pressure, traders should keep an eye out for a potential exhaustion low until the end of the year.
Oil prices are nearly 40% off the yearly highs with a four-month decline (intermediate trend counter-trend) taking WTI below a key support zone between 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci levels.
The long-term trend for both brent and crude oil is bullish, while the medium-term trend remains down for the time being, although we have seen a potential change in trend.
For more meaningful gains and a suggestion that the intermediate trend counter trend is now over, we would like to see the price setting a significantly higher low and trading above the trend line resistance.
However, should the rebound from oversold territory not have enough momentum to take out these levels, a bearish candle stick reversal would start to consider the continuation of the prevailing downtrend, with 70.00 and 55.00 respective downside support targets for WTI.
Considering the fundamental Oil price predictions for 2023 from market leaders, the chart should show a consolidation before the downtrend will resume. A move-up should set a lower high within a new major downtrend.
To learn more about technical analysis as a forecasting tool visit CAPEX Academy.
When talking about the commodity oil traded on the financial markets, we can distinguish two types. The most popular, and also the most traded, is the American oil called WTI. The other popular variant is Brent.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI)
Light sweet crude oil (WTI) is widely used in US refineries and is an important benchmark for oil prices. WTI is a light oil with a high API density and low sulfur content. This determines the density of the oil in relation to water. WTI oil is widely traded between oil companies and investors. Most trading is done through futures through CME Group. The Light Sweet Crude Oil (CL) future is one of the most traded futures worldwide.
Most of the oil of this type is stored in Cushing, an important hub for Oklahoma's oil industry. Here are large storage tanks connected to pipelines that transport the oil to all United States regions. WTI is an important feedstock for refineries in the Midwestern United States and on the coast of the Gulf of Mexico.
Brent Crude Oil
Brent oil is an important benchmark for the petroleum rate, especially in Europe, Africa, and the Middle East. Its name is derived from the Brent oil field in the North Sea. This Royal Dutch Shell oil field was once one of Britain's most productive oil fields, but most of the platforms there have since been decommissioned.
The correlation between these two futures' price development is high, and we have seen several times in recent years that Brent's price was more than $10 higher than usual. At the end of 2020, the difference was approximately $3. Such differences are caused, among other things, by supply and demand, including the costs of shipping or storing oil.
Why is the oil price so volatile?
Oil prices are extraordinarily volatile because supply and demand for oil are inelastic or unresponsive to price changes. And that comes from the fact that oil is a must-have commodity for which there are few scalable substitutes. And on the supply side, oil production requires years of upfront capital expenditure to begin the flow. But when the oil starts flowing, the operating costs are low.
So when you have a commodity for which demand is very inelastic and supply is inelastic, whenever you have an imbalance between supply and demand, you need huge price swings to effectuate just small changes in consumption and production. So basically oil's a very inelastic commodity on the supply and the demand sides in the short run. That's the main reason why crude oil prices are so volatile.
How do analysts see the market moving in the coming months and years? Below, we look at some of the latest projections.
Oil Price Prediction for 2023, 2025-2030: Analysts’ view
With new developments in the past weeks, what are analysts' views on the crude oil price forecast?
EIA - Oil Price Prediction 2023: Brent $83, WTI $77
EIA forecast the Brent price will stay relatively flat through 2Q23, averaging $85/b, and then decline through the end of 2024. They expect the Brent price will average $83/b in 2023 and $78/b in 2024, down from $101/b in 2022. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price (the U.S. benchmark price) is forecast to generally follow a similar path, averaging $77/b in 2023 and $72/b in 2024.
Citi Oil - Price Prediction 2023: Brent $80, WTI $75
Citi said that oil demand growth next year is going to be around 1.2 or 1.3 million barrels a day. Their base case is that supply will be growing by twice that amount over the course of the next year, a good bit of that coming from the Western Hemisphere, from the US, Brazil, Canada, Guyana, Argentina, maybe Venezuela, and even Mexico. Citi forecast Oil to stay flat during 2023.
JPMorgan - Oil Price Prediction 2023: Brent $90
JP Morgan's forecast of $90 Brent in 2023 rests on the view that the OPEC+ alliance will do the heavy lifting to keep markets balanced next year. They expect supply to grow at 30% above the pace of demand in 2023, as Russian production fully normalizes and a combination of conventional (Brazil, Norway, Guyana) and nonconventional projects (US, Canada, Argentina) supplies an additional 1.6 mbd.
OPIS Oil Price Prediction 2023: Brent $95-96, WTI $90
OPIS forecast that 2023 will see a price of $90/bbl a reasonable prophecy for WTI, with $95-$96/bbl likely for Brent. Precisely how high these numbers move above the average will depend on the successful reopening of China and the ability of western countries to avoid a significant recession.
Infrastructure Capital Advisors - Oil Price Prediction 2023: $80-$100/barrel
ICA expects oil to trade in the $80-$100 range while the Ukrainian war continues," adding that "China oil demand likely to recover as it emerges from zero-COVID lockdown policy."
Reuters - Oil Price Prediction 2023
Oil prices are set for small gains in 2023 as a darkening global economic backdrop and COVID-19 flare-ups in China threaten demand growth and offset the impact of supply shortfalls caused by sanctions on Russia, a Reuters poll showed on the beginning of the year.
A survey of 30 economists and analysts forecast Brent crude would average $89.37 a barrel in 2023, about 4.6% lower than the $93.65 consensus in a November survey. The global benchmark has averaged $99 per barrel in 2022.
U.S. crude is forecasted to average $84.84 per barrel in 2023, versus the previous month's $87.80 consensus.
BCA Research - Oil Price Prediction 2023
BCA expects 2023 Brent prices to average $115/bbl with an upside bias. This is partly driven by their expectation the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will be successful in reversing three years of the zero-Covid policy after a chaotic start to re-opening the economy. They expect Chinese oil consumption to fall in January by 500k b/d. After that, demand will pick up in late 1Q23 and through the rest of the year, unleashing 700k b/d of pent-up oil-demand growth next year vs. 2022 levels, as consumers increase travel and spending at home and abroad.
ING - Oil Price Prediction 2023
ING also published its oil price outlook for 2023 and remained bullish.
According to the Dutch Bank, a combination of lower Russian oil supply and OPEC+ supply cuts means that the global oil market is expected to tighten over 2023. ING expects a growing deficit over the course of the year, which suggests that oil prices should trade higher from current levels.
ING currently forecast ICE Brent to average US$104/bbl over 2023 but added that uncertainty around their oil forecast is high given the geopolitical situation and the direction of the global economy.
Goldman Sachs - Oil Price Prediction 2023
Goldman Sachs has taken a bullish stance overall for commodities and predicted that it will be the best-performing asset class in 2023 – handing investors returns of 43%.
In the group’s 2023 Commodity Outlook report, strategists also said that the first quarter of the year might be more underwhelming than the rest of it because of expected economic slowdowns.
Algorithm-based (AI) Oil Price Forecasts
Crude oil is expected to trade at 83.04 USD/BBL by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, they estimate it to trade at 93.06 in 12 months' time.
Brent crude oil is expected to trade at 88.56 USD/BBL by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, they estimate it to trade at 98.85 in 12 months' time.
Long Forecast expects Brent Oil to close 2023 at 88.12, while WTI to close 2023 at 76.53. Wallet Investors forecast Brent Oil to close 2023 at 106.49, while WTI to close at $92.18.
Oil Price Forecast for the next 5 years and beyond (2025 – 2050)
Some expect demand for fossil fuels could fall in the medium-to-long term, leading to a lower oil price in 10 years’ time. Consequently, the oil price in 2030 is widely expected below $100/bbl.
According to EIA’s annual energy outlook report, the agency held a conservative outlook for its oil price forecast for 2030. It expects the average Brent crude prices at $61/bbl in 2025, $73/bbl in 2030, $80/bbl in 2035, $87/bbl in 2040, $91/bbl in 2045 and $95/bbl in 2050.
Energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie said if global fuel consumption falls in line with the emission targets set to limit global warming, oil price projections in 2030 could fall as low as $40/bbl.
Wallet Investor forecast WTI Oil to trade at $119 at the end of 2025, while the Brent Oil price prediction 2025 is $152.
The Oil price prediction 2025 at LongForecast is: WTI $115, Brent $153.
The Oil price forecast for the next 5 years is $130 for WTI and $168 according to Long Forecast and $146 for WTI and $200 for Brent according to Wallet Investor.
When looking for oil-price predictions, it's important to remember that analysts' forecasts may be wrong. This is because their projections are based on a fundamental and technical study of WTI and Brent oil commodities’ historical price movements. But past performance and forecast are not reliable indicators of future results.
It is essential to do your research and always remember your decision to trade depends on your attitude to risk, your expertise in the market, the spread of your investment portfolio, and how comfortable you feel about losing money. You should never invest money that you cannot afford to lose.
How Did the Price of Crude Oil Change Over Time?
Below is a chart showing the price for West Texas Intermediate (NYMEX) Crude Oil over the last 5 years. The shown prices are in U.S. dollars. On the chart, you can clearly see the monstrous drop that happened earlier this year, and how the price has been going up and stabilizing in the months thereafter.
A Recent History of Oil
At the end of April 2020 (due to the Saudi and Russia conflict - more on that later), the oil price crashed, and the May WTI future even dipped below $0. The stock markets recovered strongly during the summer, and the oil price had also found its way up again. In August, the oil price rose well above $ 40 a barrel. With that price, the largest oil companies got some air also, but it is still far from enough for most to make a profit.
At the beginning of September, the oil price had suddenly fallen hard again. Simultaneously, with the mini-crash with the US stock markets, a crude oil barrel's worth dropped by about 15% to below $37 a barrel. This brought the oil price back below $40 a barrel for the first time since July. The drop is partly because Saudi Arabia had lowered its sales prices for October and the fear that the number of COVID-19 infections will increase rapidly in several countries.
The rebound in the number of infections could thwart the global economic recovery and decrease fuel demand. With several refineries lowering tariffs again, it seems they want to prevent oil stocks from rising back to record levels. The oil price was able to recover so strongly in recent months, thanks to the OPEC + countries' agreements regarding the reduction in production. However, due to the crisis, many countries are looking for additional income sources. Therefore, some countries are not fully complying with the agreements made. As a result, more oil flows into the market, which also has a depressing effect on oil prices.
March 9th, 2020: 30% Oil Price Crash
Monday, March 9th, can go into the history books as "Black Monday" for the oil price. Negotiations between Saudi Arabia and Russia had come to nothing.
The oil price was under pressure in previous months due to the spread of the coronavirus. The world economy was on the back burner, and as a result, the oil demand had declined considerably. By limiting oil production, the countries that are part of the oil cartel hoped to stabilize or increase the price themselves. Saudi Arabia, in particular, is strongly in favor of limiting oil production.
Saudi Arabia was now trying to force Russia in another way to join the OPEC plan. The Saudi’s were going to increase production considerably and flood the market with oil. As a result, the price of a crude oil barrel had opened more than 30% lower, the lowest price since 2016. A low oil price is disastrous for most countries. Most OPEC countries are almost entirely dependent on oil revenues.
America's shale farmers may be hit hardest. The shale revolution seems to be built more and more on quicksand, as costs remain high and the new resources that are found have a much shorter lifespan. Even with an oil price of around $60 a barrel, many of these producers were already struggling. The unrest surrounding the coronavirus also makes it difficult to raise external capital. With Saudi Arabia pushing the oil price further down, the situation seems to be untenable for many producers. Players with a fragile balance and relatively high costs are unlikely to make it. What Saudi Arabia failed to achieve in 2016 now seemed to have a good chance of success.
April 21st, 2020: WTI Goes Below Zero
In April 2020, we saw a situation in the oil markets that has never occurred before. The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (WTI) futures contract for May fell more than 100%. The price fell during the day and took an unprecedented dive later in the evening to $ -37.63/barrel, meaning that oil producers would indeed have to pay buyers to collect the oil.
This is mainly because the storage capacity in Cushing, Oklahoma is full. And it is precisely there that this oil is delivered. Traders and large companies who were long yesterday but ran out of storage capacity or liquidity to purchase oil were forced to close futures before expiry.
Shale Oil Influence
Oil production increased rapidly, and OPEC was not happy about this. They saw the increase in supply in the Middle East as competition. OPEC, therefore, came up with the idea of fully opening the oil taps. The production costs of shale oil were many times higher. The result was a drop in oil prices from about $110 a barrel to below $30 at the beginning of 2016. OPEC hoped to wipe out shale farmers in this way.
This strategy failed, and the OPEC countries themselves ultimately suffered considerable disadvantages from this strategy. For years they saw their income more than halved. In the meantime, the shale farmers have learned to work cheaper and more efficiently, and they are already profitable at a lower oil price. What’s typical of this form of oil extraction is that production can be increased quickly.
Demand for oil will remain stable in the coming years. But it is also apparent that there is a lot of extra supply on the market now that American oil production is rapidly increasing. Shale oil, in particular, is extracted from the ground here. The shale revolution was set in motion in 2014 by the sharp rise in oil prices. This form of oil extraction was therefore profitable, despite the high production costs. Due to the attractive market, the oil companies sprang up like mushrooms.
OPEC is trying to limit production to keep the oil price at a reasonable level. Most countries benefit from a somewhat higher, but in any case, stable, oil price. According to OPEC, the oil industry must invest more than $11,000 billion over the next 20 years. If producers don't do that, there will be a shortage. In principle, shale farmers have already invested enough in recent years to absorb a large part of these shortages.
Furthermore, OPEC states that demand continues to increase despite the emergence of electric cars and the like. OPEC writes that the massive expansion of air travel creates a greater demand for oil than the emergence of alternative energy sources can diminish.
Since the low oil price in 2016, OPEC has been trying to support the low oil price. This is done by agreeing on production restrictions with all countries that are members of OPEC. The agreements do not always go smoothly, as Iran and Iraq do not always adhere to these agreements. On the other hand, the US and other countries continue to produce more and more oil, putting oil prices under pressure for a long time.
Factors That May Affect the Price of Crude Oil
We know that oil is an indispensable raw material in the world and that it is used both as raw material and fuel to make plastics, pharmaceuticals, and many other products. Hence, the demand for oil remains strong, and these industries' health will determine most of the world's oil demand. If demand from these industries increases while production stagnates, it will lead to higher prices for this commodity. Of course, and vice versa, if these industries are in a recession, their oil demand will be lower, so demand will decline. If production remains stable or increases in this case, it will logically lead to a drop in the price of a crude oil barrel.
As you will have understood, it is mainly by analyzing the difference between supply and demand that you will determine how the price or price of crude oil will evolve.
It should also be noted that this analysis is slightly more complex today than it used to be. Until a few years ago, it was pretty easy to understand how these prices would behave. At the time, the US was the largest consumer of crude oil. On the other hand, OPEC was the main supplier to the market in terms of production. But over time and the years, this situation has become more complex and slightly more confusing. One explanation for this phenomenon is that oil drilling technologies have improved greatly and resulted in better supply. Besides, we have seen the emergence of alternative solutions for this production. Finally, new players have also joined, including China, a major oil consumer in the world.
Below we have listed factors that change the supply or demand for oil and thus contribute to the evolution of this commodity's price and price.
- Production data in barrels per day from OPEC countries. Too much production generally leads to lower oil prices per barrel and vice versa. US crude oil inventory data is published weekly, which also affects WTI.
- Supply, which is published weekly on the economic calendar. Big supply also contributes to falling prices, while little supply leads to higher prices.
- The international geopolitical situation. Conflicts affecting the oil-producing and exporting countries often influence the development of the price per barrel.
- The value of the US dollar on the currency market. As a barrel of oil is denominated in dollars, this currency will be weaker, and more oil purchases will be stimulated by holders of other currencies.
Make sure to create a free demo account on CAPEX.com! CAPEX.com is a useful platform for both novice and expert traders. You will be up to date on interesting updates about crude oil as an investment asset, and the user-friendly interface will come in handy if you decide to trade crude oil or any other commodity.
If you look at the price changes of oil for a while now, you will start to see a pattern, and as an investor, you can respond smartly to this.
If you want to invest in oil, it is a good investment to get in when the oil price is at a certain bottom. Of course, there is no guarantee that oil prices will ever rise as much as in the past. Oil is a limited resource and is probably the most precious material in the world. Investing in commodities is one way to improve your overall investment portfolio.
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Oil price forecast FAQ
Will oil prices go back up?
Since the major drop in March of 2020, the oil price has been going up and stabilizing in the months thereafter.
Where are oil prices going?
Fluctuations notwithstanding, many experts forecast that crude oil prices will steadily grow in the long term. This mostly has to do with oil becoming more and more scarce a commodity, and it’s becoming more difficult to extract the crude oil.
Will oil prices go down?
The price of crude oil fluctuates on a daily basis. Its price can see a major drop due to various factors, including too much production, lack of storage, geopolitical conflicts, the value of the US dollar, etc.
What is the prediction for oil prices?
Most oil price predictions assume a positive outlook in the long run. As the global economy slowly returns to (albeit new) normal, oil prices should also be stable, if not super-high.
Will the oil price recover?
Since the major drop in March of 2020, the oil price has been going up and stabilizing in the months thereafter.
Why has the oil price dropped in 2020?
A global economic conflict resulted in a total drop in oil prices in March of 2020. Saudi Arabia initiated a price war with Russia, “helping” a 65% quarterly fall in the oil price. In the first few weeks of March, US oil prices fell by 34%, while crude oil fell by 26%, and Brent oil fell by 24%.
What is the current oil price?
Take a look at the online oil price chart to see current changes in US Dollars.