We look at the factors affecting the US Technology index and where should traders and investors expect the market to move next, including some of the latest NASDAQ 100 price predictions from analysts.
Rising interest rates, slowing economic activity, and normalization of COVID-19-era consumption habits pressured the technology sector last year. The US Tech 100 index had plummeted and had a miserable year in 2022, declining by 33% as investors trimmed their bets on the high-growth tech sector.
But based on the annual returns of the Nasdaq-100 dating back to 1986, consecutive down years are incredibly rare. In fact, the index has only fallen two years in a row on one occasion -- during the dot-com crash between 2000 and 2002.
While the current environment poses its own unique challenges (supply chains, workforce, and innovation), and seems unlikely that big tech’s problems will end by 2022, there's a likelihood that, based on history alone, the Nasdaq could be set for a bumper 2023.
The Nasdaq has, of course, always bounced back in the past—sometimes spectacularly, as in 2003, when it climbed 50% after falling 31.5% the year before. But it seems like a big ask for the tech sector to dominate the next market cycle as thoroughly as it has in the past.
Moreover, every investor knows that past performance is no guarantee of future results.
NASDAQ-100 Forecast & Price Prediction Summary
- Nasdaq-100 price prediction today: While the Nasdaq 100 price is correcting in the near term, the golden cross indication suggests that a bull trend could still be emerging.
- Nasdaq-100 price prediction 2023: Few forecast agencies indicated that the index had bottomed out and could rise to 13,000 by the end of the year. However, some are concerned that interest rates may continue to rise and forecast Nasdaq-100 to close the year at around 10,000 points.
- Nasdaq-100 forecast for the next 5 years: The long-term projections are bullish with a minimum price target of 16,000 points in Q1 2028, or 50% up for the actual prices.
With CAPEX.com you can trade NASDAQ Index directly, trade or invest in NASDAQ 100 ETFs, and trade or invest in NASDAQ 100 shares.
NASDAQ 100 Outlook 2023 - Key Drivers to Watch
Some of the specific themes Wall-Street analysts see playing a critical role in 2023 and beyond include:
Leading through macroeconomic uncertainty
The C-suites of many internet companies are under pressure to raise margins and boost revenues as a result of declining market capitalizations, declining consumer spending, and decreased product demand. Beyond personnel changes, strategies can include streamlining company procedures, relying more on intelligent automation, updating outdated infrastructures, and taking strategic mergers and acquisitions into account.
Navigating global uncertainties
As technology companies confront heightened global challenges, they should work to mitigate risks and build more resilient systems. Leaders should think strategically about their choices of partners, where they’re located, and where and how production takes place.
Transforming other industries through technology
Technology companies should try to reduce risks and create more resilient systems as they face more severe global challenges. Leaders should consider their partner selections, their locations, and the location and mode of production strategically.
Adapting to new regulations
The operations of internet corporations are becoming increasingly impacted by social issues and climate change. Governments and shareholders all around the world are pressuring businesses to be more transparent about their environmental impacts and tax obligations. Updates to company management software solutions are anticipated to be necessary as a result of new and planned rules. This will allow businesses to attain real-time visibility and offer authorities access to the data they will need for increasingly complex compliance processes.
NASDAQ 100 Forecast by Investment Firms
While the pandemic pressures of 2020 and 2021 were favorable for IT stocks, the sector was the driving force behind significant stock market falls in 2022. How to weather a future economic slump by cutting expenses, improving efficiency, and raising revenues is currently a big concern for software companies. Several people will probably search for strategies to stay creative and have a strong competitive position in the future at the same time.
The investment firm founded in New York remains optimistic because they continue to see signs of enduring quality, sustainable growth, and supportive valuations.
Looking to 2023, Franklin Templeton expects enterprises to continue many of their Digital Transformation initiatives, albeit at a slower pace, even in the face of moderating rate increases and slowing economic activity. This is because these investments are driving needed productivity gains, especially in an inflationary environment.
They see opportunities in high-quality platform-like companies—that are essential to their customers’ operations—in enterprise software and information technology (IT) services companies and the sub-themes of Secure Cloud and Software-as-a-Service (SaaS), Artificial Intelligence (AI)/Machine Learning, Future of Work and Cybersecurity.
Conversely, the holding company anticipates greater uncertainty in consumer technology as COVID-19 tailwinds continue to abate, energy prices rise in Europe and global economic activity slows. They believe areas such as consumer IT hardware, gaming, eCommerce, and digital advertising may have a slightly longer road to recovery.
Stock market analysts are cautious on the outlook given the indications from the Federal Reserve that interest rates will continue to rise.
The US investment bank Raymond James explained that the primary influences on earnings and multiples remain the degree of inflation moderation ahead, in turn Fed policy, and how much damage will be inflicted on the economy (to bring inflation under control).
They believe that we are in the late stages of this bear market, as inflation is set to moderate over the next year, and that the recession will be mild. However, the Fed remains in tightening mode, tightening acts with a lag on the economy, and it will likely take time for the Fed and investors to have high conviction on the inflationary and economic outlook- resulting in more time needed before equities are able to show sustainable upside.
The bank’s analysts maintain their overall stance to refrain from chasing the rally periods and to build exposure in the weak periods. They also note that Technology earnings estimates are getting revised downward at a quicker pace than the USA 500, which is a headwind for sector performance.
During the dot-com stock bubble of 2000, the market cap of the five largest tech stocks in the S&P 500 comprised just over 20% of the index at their peak, bottoming five years later to only 5% of the benchmark. In 2022, the five largest technology stocks in the S&P 500 at their peak comprised 25% of the index. Will they similarly head to 5%?
On one hand, the 30 times average valuations of the five largest tech stocks today will likely never reach the triple-digit valuations of 2000, according to Morgan Stanley. But the U.S. government’s desire to keep mega-cap tech stocks from dominating their industries has historically stunted their growth—and we are now seeing that with increased regulatory scrutiny. With slowing growth rates combined with premium valuations, it may be wise to reduce exposure to mega-cap tech stocks, said the investment bank in the stock market outlook for 2023.
NASDAQ 100 Technical Analysis
After finding technical support and rebounding off its 200-day simple moving average, the Nasdaq 100 has charged higher, with bulls finding resistance near 12,400. The index is now showing a golden crossover, with price finding support again in 200-day moving average and 50-day moving average.
A golden cross is a chart pattern in which a relatively short-term moving average crosses above a long-term moving average.
The most commonly used moving averages are the 50-period and the 200-period moving average. The period represents a specific time increment. Generally, larger time periods tend to form stronger lasting breakouts. For example, the daily 50-day moving average crossover up through the 200-day moving average on an index like the USA 500 or US Tech 100 is one of the most popular bullish market signals.
If the index can hold this barrier in the coming days and confirm the golden cross, buying interest could pick momentum, paving the way for a move towards 12,675, followed by 12,870, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the November 2021/October 2022 slump. On the flip side, if sellers regain decisive control of the market and trigger a bearish reversal below the crossover, initial support appears at 11,900/11,820. If this area is taken out, bears could launch an attack on 11,655, the 50% Fib retracement of the October 2022/February 2023 rally.
Nasdaq-100 Price Predictions for 2023 and Beyond (AI-based)
The Nasdaq 100 forecast for 2023 from algorithm-based forecasting service Wallet Investor at the time of writing (March 2023) indicated that the index had bottomed out and could rise to 12,500 points at the start of Q2 to 13,000 by the end of the year.
The service’s Nasdaq 100 forecast for 2025 estimated that the index could climb to 14,500, up from 13,800 at the end of 2024. Wallet Investor’s five-year projection showed the index at 16,000, indicating a bullish Nasdaq 100 forecast for 2030 at new all-time highs.
However, the long-term Nasdaq 100 price prediction from Long Forecast Agency was bearish, predicting that the index could drop to 10,000 points at the end of 2023.
A US100 forecast from Trading Economics estimated that the index could be priced at 11,899.96 by the end of this quarter and at 10,800.42 in one year, according to its global macro models' projections and analysts' expectations.
The NASDAQ 100 Futures forecast from Gov Capital is the most bullish, with prices expected to trade above 23,000 points within one year (March 2024).
When evaluating any Nasdaq 100 forecast to inform your trading, it’s important to keep in mind that unexpected geopolitical events and government announcements can drive market volatility, making it difficult for analysts and algorithm-based forecasters to come up with accurate long-term predictions.
If you’re interested in investing in the Nasdaq 100, look at the latest market trends, news, technical and fundamental US tech 100 analysis, and expert opinion before making any investment decision. Keep in mind that past performance is no guarantee of future returns. And never invest money you cannot afford to lose.
How can you trade or invest in the NASDAQ 100?
With CAPEX.com, there are a number of ways to gain exposure to the NASDAQ 100 (known on our platform as the US Tech 100) – so you can choose the one that suits you best.
Trade the NASDAQ 100 index directly
Trade the performance of the USA’s largest domestic and international companies from a single position. You can trade the NASDAQ 100’s price directly on the CAPEX.com platform under the name ‘US Tech 100’. In other words, you’ll get direct exposure to the NASDAQ 100 index with us. It’s more liquid than trading it in other ways and you can trade it 24 hours a day, Monday to Friday.
You can trade the NASDAQ 100 on leverage using CFDs, without having to own any actual shares. Instead, you’ll put down a deposit to open a larger position, with profits and losses calculated on the full position size. This means your profits and losses can significantly outweigh your margin amount, so ensure you use risk management tools (like stop losses) when trading online.
You can go ‘long’ if you think the price will rise or ‘short’ if you think the price will fall.
Trade NASDAQ-100 Index on a Demo Account
Trade or invest in NASDAQ 100 ETFs
Gain broad exposure to the entire NASDAQ 100 by trading or investing in an ETF that tracks the price of the index. This means you won’t trade on the current price of the NASDAQ, but rather the ETF’s price, calculated on its net asset value (NAV).
Investing in NASDAQ ETFs is how many longer-term investors get exposure to the entire index. You can do this with share dealing. Here, you’d buy upfront, based on the full value of the ETF, and hold until you want to sell.
You could also trade NASDAQ ETFs on leverage with CFDs, but bear in mind this offers lower liquidity and higher spreads than trading the index directly. Leveraged trades mean you can go long or short on NASDAQ ETFs. However, total profits or losses can significantly outweigh your margin amount, as both are based on the total position size.
With CAPEX.com you can trade the largest NASDAQ-100 Index ETF (Invesco), but also Inverse ETFs (ProShares Ultra Short) and Leveraged ETFs (ProShares Ultra).
Trade NASDAQ-100 ETFs I Invest in NASDAQ-100 ETFs
Trade or invest in NASDAQ shares
With CAPEX.com, you can also trade or invest in the actual stocks included in the NASDAQ 100.
Target specific NASDAQ 100 stocks like META (Facebook), Tesla, or Alphabet, without gaining exposure to the entire index. With this option, you choose your own NASDAQ shares based on your personal trading strategy.
Invest in stocks with zero commission charges (terms apply) on our investing platform and own actual NASDAQ 100 company shares outright.
You can also trade NASDAQ companies without having to take ownership of shares, using CFDs. Stock trading is leveraged, so you can go long or short.
Trade NASDAQ-100 Shares I Invest in NASDAQ-100 Shares
What is the Nasdaq 100?
The Nasdaq 100, also known as the NDX and US100 Index, is a composite index of 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market, based on their market capitalization.
As of 2023, the index’s top 10 components by weight are:
- Apple 12.35%
- Microsoft 12.01%
- Amazon 6.07%
- Nvidia 4.73%
- Tesla 3.77%
- Alphabet 3.64%
- META 3.42%
- Broadcom 2.09%
- PepsiCo 1.96%
- Costco Wholesale Corp 1.77%
The US100 is synonymous with technology stocks, which account for 55.4% of its component companies. It also contains stocks in the consumer discretionary, healthcare, consumer staples, industrials, and telecommunications sectors.
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NASDAQ-100 Forecast & Price Predictions FAQs
What are the NASDAQ’s trading hours?
The NASDAQ’s normal market hours are 9.30 am to 4 pm EST (Eastern Standard Time). However, with us, you can trade 24 hours a day, from Monday to Friday, to best take advantage of significant market events that may not keep office hours, like earnings season.
How is the NASDAQ price calculated?
The NASDAQ price is determined by a host of factors, most importantly its constituent companies’ latest share prices. The constituent companies of the NASDAQ are the 100 largest non-financial companies (for example, not banks) on the NASDAQ stock exchange by market capitalization. This, plus other factors, are calculated into an average value for the stock exchange as a whole.
The NASDAQ is a modified capitalization-weighted index. This means that not all NASDAQ stocks have equal weighting but, rather, the largest stocks will contribute a higher percentage to the total aggregate. So, if Apple’s share price goes up significantly and Apple is one of the largest stocks by market cap on the NASDAQ, the NASDAQ price will almost definitely go up too.
Will the NASDAQ 100 go up or down?
The direction of the NDX could depend on the performance of its constituent company stocks, based on their financial performance, macroeconomic factors, and monetary policy in the US and major markets, among other factors.
Should you invest in NASDAQ 100 in 2023?
Whether you invest in the Nasdaq 100 Index or any other asset is a personal decision you should take depending on your risk tolerance and investing strategy. You should do your own research to develop an informed view of the market. Always make sure to do your own research. And never invest money you cannot afford to lose.
What is the future prediction for Nasdaq 100?
The future price of the Nasdaq 100 index is forecasted at 13,000 points by WalletInvestor and 10,000 points by LongForecast by the end of 2013.
What is the prediction for Nasdaq stock?
Franklin Templeton is optimistic about the future of Nasdaq stocks because they continue to see signs of enduring quality, sustainable growth, and supportive valuations.
Is The Nasdaq bullish or bearish?
While WalletInvestor and GovCapital are bullish and expect the index to trade above 13,000 points by the end of 2023, TradingEconomics and LongForecast expect the index to trade around 10,000 points by the end of 2023.