Gold Rate Forecast: XAU/USD Price Awaits Key Data Release

By: Miguel A. Rodriguez

18:23, 30 November 2020

Key Data Releases in the Week ahead – According to the UAE Time

On Monday, November 30, the market expects the Japanese industrial production and retail sales numbers of October, the Chinese manufacturing PMI numbers of November, the Switzerland retail sales numbers of October, and the German inflation rates of November.  

On Tuesday, December 1, investors will focus on the Australian manufacturing PMI number, the RBA interest rate decision, the Switzerland GDP rate (Q3), the German unemployment rate of November, the Eurozone, the UK, Canada, and the US manufacturing PMI final numbers of November and the Eurozone inflation rates of November.

On Wednesday, December 2, markets will follow the Australian GDP rate (Q3), the German retail sales figure of October, the Eurozone unemployment rate of October, the US ADP employment change of November, and changes in the US oil stockpiles.

On Thursday, December 3, eyes will be on the Australian services PMI number of November with the balance of trade of October and, the Chinese, the Eurozone, the UK composite PMI final number of November. On the same day, investors will follow the Eurozone retail sales of October and the US non-manufacturing PMI numbers of November.

On Friday, December 4, markets will check the Canadian balance of trade of October and unemployment rates of November, with the US non-farm payrolls, the unemployment rate of November, and factory orders of October.

Gold - Daily Price Chart (September 8 – November 29, 2020)

On November 9, the Gold closed below the 50-day moving average highlighting the bull’s weakness. Last week, the price traded below $1,861 and pressed to the current $1,796 - $1,747 trading zone. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) fell to oversold territory emphasizing the strength of the bearish momentum.

A daily close below the low end of the trading zone at $1,747 may encourage bears to press towards the monthly support level at $1,689 (February 2020 high).

On the other hand, a daily close above the high end of the zone $1,796 reflects a weaker bearish sentiment and may send the metal toward the weekly resistance level at $1,861.

Gold - Four Hour Price Chart (November 6 – November 29, 2020)

On Friday, the Gold traded below the bullish trendline originated from the November 24 low at $1,800 indicating that bears were still in charge. Therefore, XAU/USD hit an over four-month low at $1,774.

In conclusion, while the bearish momentum is still in place a violation of the aforementioned bullish trendline reflects a weaker downward sentiment thus, a break above $1,815 may cause a rally towards $1,848. On the other hand, a break below $1,765 could send the price towards the low end of the current trading zone $1,747(discussed above on the daily chart). As such, the support and resistance levels underlined on the chart should be considered.

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