The USD to TRY exchange rate has been in a bull run for decades, soaring from just 1.1 in 2008 to almost 30 today. With Turkey's Central Bank nearing the end of the cycle after raising rates to 42.5% in December 2023, what are the latest Turkish Lira forecast and price predictions for 2024 and beyond?
The Turkish Lira exchange rate closed 2023 slightly below 30 against the US Dollar, much higher than its 2023 low of 18. It has jumped in most months in the past decade, pushing the Turkish lira into uncharted zones today.
President Recep Erdogan drastically altered and diminished the independence of the CBRT. This explains the currency's muted response to this year's sharp rate hikes. To strengthen the currency, the bank has implemented a string of massive rate hikes since June, from 18.5% to 42.5%.
In theory, such rate hikes should lead to more lira strength by encouraging people and investors to hold the currency. Besides, the US dollar is yielding less than 5%. Instead of boosting the Turkish lira, the recent rate hikes have helped to slow its collapse.
With the Turkey Central Bank forecasting inflation to end 2024 at 43.9% and the end of the aggressive tightening cycle as soon as possible, where do banks and analysts forecast the Turkish Lira will move in 2024 and beyond?
Turkish Lira Forecast & Price Prediction – Summary
- Turkish Lira forecast today: There is a likelihood that the lira could have a short-term rally during the year as investors embrace a risk-on sentiment and temporary drop to 25.
- Turkish Lira price prediction 2024: Fundamentally, the TRY should continue falling in 2024 since Erdogan will remain in power, with analysts forecasting Turkish Lira to decline further, up to 20-30% against the US Dollar during 2024.
- Turkish Lira forecast for the next 5 years: Agencies and banks continue to forecast a Turkish Lira decline in the next years under Erdogan. The most bearish 5-year Turkish Lira price predictions see the USD/TRY trading as high as 85-90.
With CAPEX.com you can trade CFDs on USD/TRY, EUR/TRY and GBP/TRY with low spreads and 1:10 leverage.
High-interest rate currencies like the Turkish lira are very attractive to those who are aiming for swap points in forex trading. However, for beginners, trading for Turkish lira swap points carries a great deal of risk.
Follow the USD/TRY, EUR/TRY, and GBP/TRY price charts for live data, and read our latest Turkish Lira forecast and price predictions for 2023 and beyond. Key pivot points and support and resistance levels provide further insights to help you make informed trading decisions.
Turkish Lira Forecast 2024 - Fundamental Overview
The re-election campaign of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the subsequent sharp increases in interest rates to combat double-digit inflation have caused further volatility in Turkish assets this year. Investors now want to know if the policy will remain in place and what 2024 holds.
Erdogan appointed a new economic team in June, bringing in names that were friendly to the market and promising a return to more traditional policies, after years of pushing for lower rates to keep prices down. veteran Merrill Lynch strategist Mehmet Simsek was appointed finance minister, and veteran Wall Street banker Hafize Gaye Erkan was named governor of the central bank.
Turkish markets experienced a surge of optimism following those appointments. Stocks and dollar bonds increased as five-year credit default swaps, a crucial indicator of nation risk, dropped by more than 250 basis points. Numerous well-known investors, such as JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Deutsche Bank AG, are now placing bets on Turkish bonds seeing a recovery in 2024.
Banks’ analysts state that markets remain fixated on whether and how Turkey will get it right, after the unorthodoxy of the past five years. For the short-term Turkish Lira forecast, looks like nothing else matters.
Nonetheless, uncertainties are still visible in the forex market, as evidenced by the lira's 35% decline versus the dollar in 2023. The currency has continued to weaken even though more than half of that decline occurred prior to the arrival of the new economic team. Although it has decreased from its October 2018 peak of 86%, inflation is still running at a 62% annual rate.
Investors have been looking for indications of Erdogan's commitment to more traditional economic policies on previous occasions. The currency rallied during Naci Agbal's tenure as central bank governor, which ran from November 2020 to March 2021. However, he was dismissed following a string of rate hikes that contradicted Erdogan's theory that low-interest rates lower inflation.
For Turkey’s Investors, 2024 Is Still All About Winning Trust
Worries about whether the most recent policy flip will persist since foreign investors are still haunted by recollections of past similar pivots. For those looking to invest in Turkey, there are still a lot of unknowns, especially with local elections scheduled for the end of March.
Investors have been burned too many times by U-turns in Turkish economic policy in recent years to be comforted by the return of an able technocrat from a different era. According to the head of product at Medley Global Advisors in New York, time and more evidence of genuine commitment to orthodox policies are required for a sustained recovery in inflows. Investors need to see it to believe it.
However, due to the encouraging environment that Turkey's most recent turn has so far created, capital flows from foreign investors into Turkish equities and bonds are expected to turn positive in 2023 for the first time in six years. By the beginning of December, total inflows for this year had surpassed $1.1 billion, based on data from the central bank. 2017 was the most recent year in which foreign buyers of Turkish assets were net buyers.
Themes/concerns that could influence the Turkish Lira forecasts
Here are some areas of key themes/concerns that could determine the trajectory of Turkish assets in 2023, according to money managers, strategists and economists interviewed by Bloomberg:
Monetary Policy
Under the new economy team, the Turkish Central Bank has raised the policy interest rate to 42.5% from 8.5%, while winding down some of the unconventional measures that deterred foreign investors. However, the rate hikes have not stopped the depreciation of the lira. The reason for the market’s skepticism seems to be its mistrust of the sustainability of the current monetary policy stance.
The CBT indicated a decrease in rate hike pace last month when it stated that it planned to finish the tightening cycle quickly, following significant rate hikes totaling 31.5ppt since June. The phrasing has now somewhat changed, with the bank stating that the tightening cycle should be finished as quickly as feasible, according to the December statement.
This is predicated on the bank's determination that the current amount of monetary tightening is almost exactly what is needed to bring about disinflation. Several recent encouraging developments have also influenced this assessment:
- the underlying inflation trend has been improving steadily since October;
- the market participants' survey has shown a recovery in (12M) inflation expectations, which have dropped from 45.3% to 41.2% over the past two months;
- inflation has continued to follow the outlook in the most recent inflation report.
Nevertheless, despite recent indications of reduction, inflation pressures resulting from domestic demand remain high. To "ensure sustained price stability," the bank thus restated that it would not begin to lower rates early and that it was committed to maintaining a tight stance for an extended period.
Two small additions to the December statement indicate that the mood has improved from the previous month. First, the improvement in external financing conditions was called "notable," and second, demand for assets denominated in TRY increased both domestically and internationally "accelerated."
Unwinding Restrictions
Apart from increasing interest rates to tighten monetary policy, the economy team has been rolling back policies and streamlining regulations implemented by their predecessors.
The aim of these measures was to reduce the depreciation pressure on the lira, but they also reduced capital inflows to Turkey,” said Commerzbank. For foreign investors, any measure that makes it difficult to repatriate capital is an argument against investing in Turkey.
The new administration has eliminated regulations that required banks to purchase government bonds as a fine for lending at interest rates higher than predetermined thresholds or for not meeting benchmarks for business loans. Additionally, following rate increases and changes to reserve requirements by the central bank, interest rates on TRY both domestically and internationally have converged. This has made it possible for Turkey to loosen restrictions on swap transactions, which reduced the number of Liras that commercial banks were permitted to lend to foreign counterparts.
Local Elections
Given that municipal elections are scheduled for the end of March, it seems likely that Erdogan will return his attention to bolstering the economy. It adds uncertainty to their investment decisions and may deter many until the referendum is done, which is one of the main concerns for money managers.
Analysts at DWS Investment consider that the elections could trigger support measures by the government which might undermine the gradually improving perception of Turkish economic policy.
However, after the elections are completed, there won't be another election for nearly four years.
Turkish Interest Rate Forecast
ING analysts forecast that inflation will continue to rise until the middle of 2024 when it will surpass 70% due to seasonal impacts in January and unfavorable base effects in May. However, due to this year's high base and the additional effect of tighter policy, the second half of 2024 is probably going to witness a steep downturn, which will ultimately drive inflation down to 40–45% by year's end. In this context, they anticipate that the CBT will stay on hold until the third quarter of 2024 after one more hike in January.
The bank's economists are forecasting the Turkey Central Bank will cut interest rates more aggressively in 2025, to a minimum of 22.5%.
S&P Global predicted that the CBRT benchmark interest rate would be 35.0% at the end of 2024, 20.0% at the end of 2025, and 15.0% at the end of 2026.
Turkish Lira Forecast - Technical Outlook
On the technical front, the Turkish Lira traded lower, setting new records of decline against the dollar and euro after the elections which accelerated even after the spectacular interest rate hikes which missed expectations.
This is explained by JP Morgan: "Initially, lira depreciates, driven by pent-up pressures of the large stimulus ahead of the elections. As financial repression is relaxed, locals increase FX portfolios, while foreigners wait for better valuation entry points."
The decline continued on the government’s decision to no longer defend the currency’s value by selling foreign exchange reserves and what we see now might be a sign of a return to a more rational monetary policy.
The actual movements against the Turkish Lira look like a blow-off top.
A blow-off top signals that the price of a security is about to decline. However, this does not imply a quick decrease in price. A blow-off's rising phase might extend for several weeks. With significant daily and weekly price gains, the beginning of this rise can appear extraordinary. However, occasionally the situation may worsen for a few more weeks.
Before the price starts falling, it can be difficult to tell when a blow-off top is actually in its reversal stage (and not merely a pullback). Even then, it may not be deemed a blow-off top until four or five days after the decline begins. This is due to the fact that when a security is rising quickly, the price may temporarily decline but then continue rising.
Even while a blow-off top contains a number of essential characteristics, we can't tell from looking back whether it actually caused a price peak. Occasionally, the price will increase quickly, pause or draw back a little, and then continue to increase. In order to be considered, the blow-off top must have a steep climb and steep fall.
More and more individuals become thrilled as the price increases. As more people begin to feel as though they are missing out, they begin to buy because they don't want to lose out any longer. More individuals will be persuaded to purchase as the price rises, which will lead to additional price hikes and increased volume.
The volatility of blow-off peaks is frequently very high. Slippage on orders is much more frequent toward the end when the reversal is taking place because the price is moving so quickly. When the price starts to decline, it can be quite challenging to sell near the peak since everyone rushes to the exits at once.
Identifying Potential Blow-Off Tops in USD/TRY, EUR/TRY, GBP/TRY
Early on, blow-off tops may appear like strong rallies. A strong rally may rise at a 45-degree angle, but in a blow-off situation, the angle of ascent is almost vertical.
Some common characteristics of blow-off tops include:
- Limited Pullbacks: Blow-off tops are enormous rallies that are nearly vertical with no significant pullbacks. This sets them apart from assets that are only experiencing a high uptrend. If there are pullbacks, they normally last only one to three days before the price begins to rise once more.
- Massive Price Increases: These peaks do not follow modest price increases. The price may increase by several hundred or even several thousand percent, with the biggest dollar increases in the stock price—not necessarily percentage gains—occurring in the final week or a few days of the rally.
- Bearish Volume: Blow-off tops are often followed by swift declines on high volume, which shows that many long traders are selling their positions in the stock.
- Broader Market: Blow-off peaks are frequently made worse by wider market conditions, so a sell-off in the broad market could result in a decline.
To avoid becoming a bag holder, it's usually better to exit a position as soon as possible if traders have detected a blow-off top incorrectly or traded it incorrectly. Going short in a blow-off too early might result in extraordinarily high losses if the loss isn't promptly reduced. Similarly, entering the market too late in a blow-off peak scenario might result in significant losses if the price begins to decline and doesn't quickly return to its previous levels.
US Dollar to Turkish Lira Forecast – Daily Chart
USD/TRY pair advanced over 30% during 2023, trading close to the 30.00 key level after the CBoT decision to hike rates in December.
The steady uptrend signals a potential increase in the Turkish Lira's declining rate against the US Dollar in early 2024.
Euro & Pound to Turkish Lira Forecast – Daily Charts
The EUR/TRY and GBP/TRY bounced back after the lows reached on 25 August. The pairs reached all-time highs in December 2023.
A tight, extended consolidation is a bullish signal and points towards a breakout to new record highs. From a technical point of view, in the short term, the Turkish Lira forecasts and price predictions are bullish, while in the medium term, a blow-off top is more likely.
Turkish Lira Forecast: Can TRY stabilize or it will decline further?
Analysts forecast Turkish Lira will weaken by about one-third versus the dollar in 2024 to hit new all-time lows, as a sharp increase in interest rates does little to tame domestic inflation or convince Turks to hold the ailing lira.
Bearish Turkish Lira Forecast from S&P Global
Considering the stronger-than-anticipated performance of domestic demand, S&P Global has updated its growth projections for the Turkish economy in 2023 and 2024. The group upgraded its growth projections for Turkey from 2.3% to 2.4% in 2024 and from 3.5% to 3.7% in 2023. The growth estimate was changed from 2.9% to 2.7% for 2025 and from 3.1% to 3.0% for 2026.
According to the assessment, Turkey's average inflation rate is expected to be 53.7% this year and 50.3% the following year, with estimates for 2025 and 2026 of 29.1% and 18.0%, respectively.
S&P forecasts the Turkish Lira to trade at 40.0 against the USD at the end of 2024, 42.0 at the end of 2025, and 43.0 at the end of 2026.
Bullish Turkish Lira Forecast from JP Morgan
Investment bank JPMorgan backed a bounce in Turkey's lira as one of its key emerging market bets for 2024.
"The first theme (of 2024) is recovery trades," JPMorgan said highlighting Turkey alongside Poland, South Africa, and Israel.
"We add short 6-month USDTRY forward to our existing overweight on TRY," it added, referring to a bet for Turkey's lira to rise against the dollar.
Bearish Turkish Lira Forecast from Commerzbank
Economists at Commerzbank retain their US Dollar to Turkish Lira forecast of 35.00 by the end of 2024.
According to Commerzbank, the Turkish Lira has stabilized to some degree after the newly appointed economy management team continued to implement tough monetary tightening and financial sector reforms. Still, it will take much longer for inflation to return fully to target, hence the market remains uncertain about President Tayyip Erdogan’s support.
Bearish Turkish Lira Forecast from ING
ING forecasted the Turkish Lira to weakness in 2024, but not as much as priced in by the forwards. The Dutch Bank forecasted the Turkish Lira to trade at 33.00 TRY per USD in the first quarter of 2024 and decline up to 38.00 by the end of the year.
This bearish Turkish Lira price prediction is based on a high budget deficit target despite disinflation efforts: "The fiscal stance is likely to remain accommodative in 2024 with another wide deficit at 6.4% of GDP, though excluding earthquake-related spending, the target is below the 3% threshold. Given this backdrop, the fiscal outlook for next year is not fully helping the CBT in the disinflation process."
Turkish Lira Price Predictions from AI-based Websites
Trading Economics was also bearish in its Turkish lira projections as of the beginning of 2024, forecasting that the USD/TRY rate could move above 30.00 at the end of this quarter to 32.30 in a year’s time.
In its Turkish lira forecast for 2024, algorithm-based forecast website WalletInvestor saw the USD/TRY currency pair trading as high as 36.00 by the end of the year. The agency forecast the Turkish Lira in 2024 will follow a steady uptrend and decline 20%. In its 5-year Turkish Lira price prediction, the USD/TRY is seen at 62.00.
Gov Capital forecasts the Turkish Lira to trade as high as 40.00 TRY per USD this year. On a 5-year Turkish Lira price prediction, the agency is forecasting USD/TRY to trade between 95.00 and 100.00.
Panda Forecast sees the Turkish Lira trading at 28 TRY per Dollar at the end of the year. This is one of the few bullish Turkish Lira forecasts for 2024.
Based on historical data, the platform issued a longer-term prediction than most banks – its Turkish lira forecast for 2025 predicted that USD/TRY would trade at an average of 30.727 by the end of that year.
Euro - Turkish Lira Forecast
Like its USD/TRY forecast, TradingEconomics forecasts Euro Turkish Lira to be priced at 32.84 by the end of this quarter and at 33.70 in one year, according to Trading Economics' global macro model's projections and analysts expectations.
Pound - Turkish Lira Forecast
Additionally, TradingEconomics forecast a pound-to-lira rate of 37.85 by the end of this quarter and 38.67 in 12 months.
Due to market volatility, no bank or algorithm-based forecast website issued a pound-to-lira forecast for 2030.
Note:
When looking for Turkish lira future predictions, it’s important to bear in mind that analysts’ forecasts can be wrong. Analysts’ expectations are based on making a fundamental and technical study of the currency pair’s performance. However, past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Do your own research and always remember your decision to trade depends on your attitude to risk, your expertise in this market, the spread of your portfolio and how comfortable you feel about losing money. Never trade more money than you can afford to lose.
Trading the Turkish Lira
A popular way to trade Turkish Lira on the foreign exchange market is through CFDs.
A forex CFD is a contract in which you agree to exchange the difference in the price of a currency pair from when you open your position to when you close it. Open a long position, and if the forex position increases in price, you’ll make a profit. If it drops in price, you’ll make a loss. Open a short position, and the opposite is true.
Forex is just one of the markets you can trade using CFDs. Learn more about CFD trading.
Our trading platforms can provide you with a smart and fast way to trade forex. You can trade via the CAPEX.com platforms in:
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Trading a USD/TRY CFD
Each contract is equal to 100,000 of the base currency of the pair. In this case, selling a single USD/TRY standard contract is equivalent to trading 100,000 USD for 18,597,200 TRY so your total position is worth 92,986,000 TRY (500,000 USD).
CFDs are a leveraged product, so you don’t have to put down the full value of your position upfront. A deal of this size on USD/TRY has a margin requirement of 10%, so your margin would be 5% of the total exposure of your trade, which is 25,000 USD.
If your prediction is correct
The Turkish Lira falls as you predicted. You decide to close your position when the Sell price reaches 20.0000.
To calculate your profit, you multiply the difference between the closing price and the opening price of your position by its size. 20.0000 – 18.5972 = 1.4028 or 14,028 pips, which you multiply by 0.5 CFDs and pip value (0.53 USD) to get a profit of 3712.6914 USD (minus any overnight charges).
If your prediction is wrong
Turkish Lira rises instead. You decide to cut your losses and reverse your trade when the sell price is 18.0000.
Your position has moved 5,972 pips against you, meaning you make a loss of 1,591.8175 (in addition to any overnight charges).
Pip value is calculated using the following formula: Pip / Market Price x Lot x Contract Size. Learn more about forex pip calculation.
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Sources:
- 2024Monetarypolicy.pdf (tcmb.gov.tr)
- Turkish Lira - Quote - Chart - Historical Data - News (tradingeconomics.com)
- Turkish central bank likely to end hiking cycle next month | Snap | INGThink
- JPMorgan backs Turkey's lira as key 2024 bet | Nasdaq
- Turkey Stocks, Lira (TRY/USD) Investor Outlook: 2024 Is All About Winning Trust - Bloomberg